Derek Berg

C Altoona Curve

Age 25 R/R 6'2" / 227 lbs AA HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	A+PIT	106	.250/.359/.398	2	2	49	—	.183/.262/.301
2025	23	APIT	202	.205/.343/.355	5	8	40	—	.147/.249/.254
2026	24	AAAPIT	144	.181/.262/.291	3	1	24	—	.160/.220/.237
2026	24	AAPIT	253	.278/.344/.449	8	2	78	—	.240/.292/.373
2027PROJ2% MLB	25	MLBPIT	6	.177/.239/.276	0	0	46	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBPIT	113	.180/.244/.282	2	1	49	-0.2
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBPIT	163	.182/.246/.285	3	1	51	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV78

Speed46

BB%25

Chase%18

K%9

Z-Con%6

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJack Conley (age 25) · Blake Forsythe (age 25) · Toby Welk (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .239 / .276

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP265

ISO102

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	55	49	6	0	0	1	5	20	0	0	0	122	204	184	387	61	172	36	9	184	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	35	28	9	2	0	0	6	10	1	0	0	321	457	393	850	71	500	29	17	395	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	106	88	22	5	1	2	13	38	2	2	3	250	359	398	757	148	400	36	12	334	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	202	166	34	4	3	5	30	68	5	8	2	205	343	355	699	151	309	34	15	321	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	144	127	23	5	0	3	12	49	2	1	0	181	262	291	554	110	267	34	8	251	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	253	227	63	13	1	8	21	77	2	2	1	278	344	449	793	172	385	30	8	349	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	55	51	5	0	0	1	3	28	0	0	0	98	148	157	305	59	158	51	5	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	35	30	8	2	0	0	4	13	1	0	0	267	371	333	705	67	466	37	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	106	93	17	3	1	2	8	50	2	2	3	183	262	301	563	118	331	47	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	202	177	26	3	2	4	19	93	5	8	2	147	249	254	503	107	265	46	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	144	131	21	4	0	2	8	59	2	1	0	160	220	237	456	76	258	41	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	253	233	56	11	1	6	15	94	2	2	1	240	292	373	665	133	360	37	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	55	51	5	0	0	1	3	28	0	0	0	98	148	157	305	59	174	51	5	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	—	55	49	6	0	0	1	5	20	0	0	0	122	204	184	387	61	172	36	9	184	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	343	300	51	8	3	5	31	155	8	10	5	170	265	267	532	97	322	45	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	3 teams	—	343	282	65	11	4	7	49	116	8	10	5	230	360	372	732	142	358	34	14	333	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	397	365	77	15	1	8	22	153	4	3	1	211	263	323	587	112	337	39	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	397	354	86	18	1	11	33	126	4	3	1	243	315	393	707	150	344	32	8	313	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	55	52	5	0	0	1	3	28	0	0	0	96	148	154	302	58	158	51	5	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	343	301	51	8	3	5	31	155	8	10	5	169	265	266	531	96	306	45	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	397	368	77	15	1	8	22	153	4	3	1	209	263	321	584	111	323	39	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	55	52	5	0	0	1	3	28	0	0	0	96	148	154	302	58	158	51	5	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	343	301	51	8	3	5	31	155	8	10	5	169	265	266	531	96	306	45	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	397	368	77	15	1	8	22	153	4	3	1	209	263	321	584	111	323	39	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	2%	380	348	62	12	1	7	25	137	4	4	1	177	240	279	520	102	264	36	7	236	46	-24	+0	+0	+7	+8	-0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	177	239	276	515	99	265	33	0	235	46	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	31%	364	333	60	12	1	7	24	129	4	3	1	181	244	286	530	105	265	35	7	241	49	-22	+0	+0	+7	+8	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	42%	387	354	64	12	1	8	26	135	4	3	1	183	247	289	536	107	266	35	7	244	51	-23	+0	+0	+7	+8	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	31%	113	104	18	4	0	2	7	40	1	1	0	180	244	282	526	102	266	35	6	239	49	-7	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	42%	163	149	26	5	0	3	11	57	2	1	1	182	246	285	532	103	267	35	7	242	51	-10	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	276	253	44	9	0	5	18	97	3	2	1	174	237	269	506	95	255	35	7	241	49	-16	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	104	21	0	12	42	228	7	5	2	174	237	270	507	96	255	35	6	241	49	-39	+0	+0	+12	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1866	1696	309	57	7	35	127	715	23	22	9	182	249	286	535	104	286	38	7	240	49	-65	+1	+0	+19	+23	-2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	107	20	2	12	44	249	8	8	3	181	247	283	530	102	284	38	7	240	49	-40	+0	+0	+12	+14	-1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Sam Agnew'13-'19 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,711 PA	2.6	1,711	2	29	204*	262*	314*	+31	+0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	1	11	+11.9	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	282	6	3	183	244	289	+5	+4	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	13	6	+11.9	+9.4	-0.9	pk7: 0
#5Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0
#6Doc Powers'01-'09 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,908 PA	2.9	1,908	3	25	207*	250*	310*	+31	+0	-2.8	-1.7
/162	664	1	9	+10.9	+0.1	-1.0	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derek Berg (OGILVIE)	25	20	40	50	60	176/238/277	101	264	6	3	36%	6%	46	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	176/239/272	96	267	8	7	36%	7%	45	-2.7	203/269/313	110	288	10	8	31%	7%	65	-1.2	192/265/298	106	267	9	5	30%	8%	56	-0.9
✕Blake Forsythe 2014 · AA	25	37	44→45	50→30	40	185/249/305	120	279	11	4	36%	7%	56	-1.9	199/254/309	110	308	10	5	36%	6%	58	-1.7	186/243/281	94	293	9	0	38%	7%	45	-1.2
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	39→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/261/307	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	204/263/312	108	293	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/309	114	278	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	37	40→45	45→50	44	180/271/269	89	284	8	7	36%	9%	57	-1.8	194/276/296	102	294	9	11	34%	8%	64	-1.3	166/256/268	102	246	9	13	34%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	35→34	45	48→45	31	182/230/307	125	291	13	8	41%	4%	49	-2.4	193/265/309	116	308	12	9	39%	7%	63	-1.3	170/257/275	104	275	11	8	39%	8%	50	-1.6
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	37	43→45	47→50	44	188/256/297	109	258	11	5	31%	8%	57	-1.8	196/270/312	116	292	12	14	34%	9%	65	-1.2	182/266/286	104	281	10	16	36%	9%	56	-1.0
✕Edwin Díaz 2021 · AA	25	37→33	46→50	49→40	38	187/250/318	131	284	13	5	37%	7%	59	-1.6	177/231/308	131	296	16	5	44%	6%	50	-2.3	156/227/293	137	222	18	5	38%	7%	44	-1.2
✕Matt Winn 2018 · AAA	25	36→34	44→45	45→30	37	182/240/297	115	288	13	3	40%	7%	51	-2.3	178/238/291	113	331	11	3	46%	7%	49	-2.4	149/210/263	114	289	11	0	50%	7%	29	-1.4
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA	25	41→35	42→45	49→55	37	205/252/307	102	288	10	9	32%	5%	57	-1.8	192/247/306	114	275	13	21	34%	6%	55	-1.9	169/229/255	86	251	9	26	34%	5%	35	-1.6
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA	25	39	39→40	47→40	44	188/270/273	85	279	6	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	199/274/274	75	301	5	6	33%	8%	59	-1.7	179/263/233	55	281	4	1	35%	9%	43	-0.6
✕Carter Bins 2024 · AAA	25	38	45	48→45	37	186/258/310	124	305	13	7	41%	7%	61	-1.5	194/266/318	124	335	13	10	43%	7%	65	-1.2	153/236/269	115	277	14	9	46%	8%	40	-1.5
✕Chris Okey 2019 · AA	24	34	40→45	48→40	36	175/227/261	86	258	9	5	35%	5%	37	-3.3	194/249/303	109	286	12	4	34%	6%	55	-1.9	209/261/309	100	290	9	2	30%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Connor Pavolony 2024 · AA	24	37	41→45	49→40	42	177/265/268	91	291	8	6	39%	9%	55	-2.0	179/248/255	76	292	6	6	37%	7%	45	-2.7	138/214/196	58	229	4	2	38%	8%	16	-2.0
✕Lucas Dunn 2024 · AAA	25	40→39	40	50	44	191/274/286	94	288	8	13	34%	9%	61	-1.5	191/261/280	89	295	8	11	35%	8%	55	-2.0	147/217/217	70	238	6	10	38%	7%	23	-1.8
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	38→40	45→40	40	181/259/253	72	263	5	5	31%	6%	49	-2.4	196/275/282	86	273	7	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	149/252/214	66	204	4	0	27%	8%	36	-0.7
✕Jordan Betts 2017 · AA	25	35→28	40→45	46→40	35	174/219/264	90	270	7	4	37%	5%	34	-3.5	192/239/303	111	289	12	4	36%	5%	51	-2.2	184/231/297	113	272	14	3	37%	5%	46	-1.6
✕Cooper Johnson 2023 · AA	25	36	38→45	45→40	43	171/258/251	80	290	5	5	39%	9%	48	-2.5	183/264/299	116	287	12	6	37%	9%	61	-1.5	172/257/295	123	249	14	4	35%	9%	55	-0.9
✕Raoul Torrez 2013 · AA	25	37	42→40	48→45	38	187/251/284	97	276	10	6	34%	6%	52	-2.2	193/251/282	89	326	8	9	40%	6%	51	-2.2	160/216/226	66	308	6	9	47%	5%	24	-1.5
✕Mateo Gil 2024 · AA	24	37→33	44→45	45	38	192/239/311	120	269	12	6	33%	6%	53	-2.1	190/231/300	110	273	11	6	33%	5%	47	-2.5	156/185/252	96	223	10	3	35%	3%	16	-2.5
✕Mat Nelson 2024 · AA	25	36→30	48→45	50→40	40	189/264/324	135	274	18	5	37%	7%	67	-1.1	181/269/276	95	256	10	5	31%	8%	58	-1.7	163/266/224	61	225	6	0	28%	7%	45	-1.3

Derek Berg

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps