Julio Gutierrez — OGILVIE

Julio Gutierrez P ACL Royals

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%20.0%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Gold	9	0	12	68	7	17	4	0%	1.4	7.0%	31.2%	-24.2%	7.9%	8.76	10.78	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Gold	9	0	12	68	7	17	4	0%	1.4	7.0%	31.2%	-24.2%	7.9%	8.76	10.78	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Gold	9	0	12	68	7	17	4	0%	1.4	10.3%	25.0%	-14.7%	5.9%	8.76	10.32	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	0	23	89	16	8	1	0%	2.3	12.2%	11.2%	1.0%	1.6%	3.97	4.36	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	0	23	89	16	8	1	0%	2.3	12.2%	11.2%	1.0%	1.6%	3.97	4.36	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	10	0	23	89	16	8	1	0%	2.3	18.0%	9.0%	9.0%	1.1%	3.97	3.32	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	7	5	16	69	15	9	0	71%	2.3	14.8%	16.3%	-1.5%	0.0%	1.10	3.92	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	7	5	16	69	15	9	0	71%	2.3	14.8%	16.3%	-1.5%	0.0%	1.10	3.92	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	7	5	16	69	15	9	0	71%	2.3	21.7%	13.0%	8.7%	0.0%	1.10	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	17	1	24	118	25	19	1	6%	1.4	14.4%	20.1%	-5.7%	1.2%	6.00	5.08	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	17	1	24	118	25	19	1	6%	1.4	14.4%	20.1%	-5.7%	1.2%	6.00	5.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	KC	17	1	24	118	25	19	1	6%	1.4	21.2%	16.1%	5.1%	0.8%	6.00	3.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	24	0	25	104	22	13	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.81	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	11	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.43	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	99	16	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		43	6	75	344	43	66	8	14%	1.8	12.5%	19.3%	-6.8%	2.4%	4.78	5.79	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	16	200	913	114	176	22	14%	1.8	12.5%	19.3%	-6.8%	2.4%	4.78	5.79	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	20.0%	14.0%	2.9%	—	4.81	21.3%	9.1%	25	-0.37	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	84
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	84
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	84
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	84
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	83
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	83
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	83
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	83
Calvin Coker R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	22	SU	4.14	18.6%	13.4%	1.7%	.373	4.26	15.8%	10.5%	37	+0.12	3.94	219	83
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	83
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	474	83
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	523	83