Jalvin AriasOF
DSL Phillies Red
Age 19
R/R
6'2" / 230 lbs
ROK
HR +11%H +4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 2.2 · 2033
wRC+†59
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .270 / .302
PA105
HR2
K%31
BB%8
MLB%0%
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.2peak
2033
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.1 | $20M | +$19M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +2.2 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +2.2 | $22M | +$21M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +2.1 | $22M | +$18M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.9 | $20M | +$14M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.6 | $18M | +$10M |
| Totals | $21M | $124M | +$103M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 56 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .149 | .286 | .213 | .498 | .064 | .353 | 52 | 14 | .251 | 50 | -3 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 125 | 111 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 1 | 7 | 5 | .144 | .234 | .180 | .414 | .036 | .258 | 40 | 10 | .183 | -2 | -14 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | PHI | 105 | 95 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .211 | .279 | .326 | .605 | .116 | .289 | 31 | 8 | .262 | 59 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB 11% | PHI | 194 | 173 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .220 | .297 | .341 | .638 | .121 | .297 | 29 | 9 | .290 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB 28% | PHI | 328 | 291 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 91 | 4 | 7 | 2 | .227 | .308 | .371 | .679 | .144 | .299 | 28 | 9 | .306 | 92 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB 48% | PHI | 425 | 376 | 89 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 114 | 5 | 10 | 2 | .237 | .320 | .396 | .716 | .160 | .299 | 27 | 10 | .316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB 65% | PHI | 490 | 432 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 49 | 129 | 6 | 12 | 3 | .236 | .322 | .396 | .718 | .160 | .299 | 26 | 10 | .322 | 105 | +3 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +14 | 1.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB 82% | PHI | 533 | 468 | 111 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 54 | 139 | 6 | 13 | 3 | .237 | .324 | .400 | .723 | .162 | .300 | 26 | 10 | .326 | 108 | +5 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.8 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 558 | 488 | 118 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 58 | 144 | 7 | 14 | 3 | .242 | .331 | .410 | .741 | .168 | .300 | 26 | 10 | .329 | 110 | +6 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 2.1 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 571 | 499 | 120 | 20 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 148 | 7 | 14 | 3 | .240 | .330 | .411 | .741 | .170 | .301 | 26 | 11 | .331 | 111 | +7 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 2.2 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 575 | 502 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 19 | 61 | 149 | 7 | 14 | 3 | .241 | .332 | .410 | .742 | .169 | .301 | 26 | 11 | .331 | 111 | +7 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 2.2 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 573 | 499 | 120 | 20 | 4 | 19 | 62 | 150 | 7 | 13 | 2 | .240 | .333 | .411 | .744 | .170 | .301 | 26 | 11 | .330 | 111 | +7 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +16 | 2.1 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 564 | 491 | 116 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 61 | 149 | 7 | 12 | 2 | .236 | .329 | .399 | .728 | .163 | .300 | 26 | 11 | .328 | 109 | +6 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +16 | 1.9 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 555 | 483 | 114 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 60 | 148 | 7 | 10 | 1 | .236 | .329 | .400 | .729 | .164 | .298 | 27 | 11 | .325 | 107 | +4 | +2 | -2 | -3 | +16 | 1.6 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 541 | 471 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 17 | 59 | 147 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .231 | .325 | .391 | .715 | .159 | .297 | 27 | 11 | .321 | 104 | +2 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +15 | 1.3 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 523 | 456 | 104 | 17 | 3 | 16 | 56 | 145 | 6 | 5 | 0 | .228 | .320 | .384 | .704 | .156 | .295 | 28 | 11 | .316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +15 | 0.9 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 494 | 432 | 97 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 53 | 140 | 6 | 3 | 0 | .225 | .318 | .373 | .690 | .148 | .294 | 28 | 11 | .311 | 96 | -2 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +14 | 0.5 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 447 | 391 | 85 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 131 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .217 | .311 | .355 | .666 | .138 | .292 | 29 | 11 | .304 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -5 | -3 | +13 | 0.1 |
| 2042 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 393 | 344 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 119 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .212 | .305 | .346 | .651 | .134 | .290 | 30 | 11 | .296 | 85 | -7 | +0 | -6 | -2 | +11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8050 | 7049 | 1626 | 271 | 49 | 241 | 839 | 2212 | 95 | 149 | 32 | .231 | .321 | .386 | .706 | .155 | .299 | 27 | 10 | .317 | 100 | +4 | +17 | -25 | -48 | +228 | 17.9 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 569 | 131 | 22 | 4 | 19 | 68 | 179 | 8 | 12 | 3 | .230 | .321 | .383 | .704 | .153 | .299 | 28 | 10 | .317 | 100 | +0 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 1.4 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 56 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .233 | .411 | .372 | .783 | .140 | .381 | 36 | 21 | .366 | 138 | +2 | -1 | — | — | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 125 | 105 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 5 | .210 | .331 | .248 | .578 | .038 | .306 | 27 | 14 | .277 | 70 | -4 | -1 | — | — | +4 | -0.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Jalvin Arias (OGILVIE) | 19 | — | — | — | — | .203/.270/.302 | .100 | .289 | 2 | 2 | 31% | 8% | 59 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
●Heliot Ramos 2019 · A |
19 | 41→51 | 43→55 | 47→50 | 33 | .202/.246/.317 | .115 | .301 | 11 | 8 | 36% | 4% | 52 | -1.6 | .215/.268/.348 | .133 | .317 | 15 | 9 | 35% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .256/.322/.432 | .177 | .319 | 22 | 8 | 26% | 7% | 112 | +2.4 |
|
●Davis Schneider 2018 · A |
19 | 40→44 | 41→55 | 48→50 | 50 | .198/.276/.300 | .102 | .259 | 8 | 6 | 26% | 9% | 60 | -1.0 | .193/.268/.290 | .097 | .299 | 8 | 7 | 35% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .213/.322/.409 | .196 | .275 | 24 | 9 | 30% | 12% | 106 | +1.6 |
|
●Renato Núñez 2013 · A |
19 | 44→51 | 43→60 | 48→30 | 38 | .215/.262/.330 | .115 | .285 | 9 | 5 | 27% | 4% | 61 | -1.0 | .213/.253/.351 | .138 | .277 | 17 | 3 | 29% | 4% | 64 | -0.8 | .238/.308/.452 | .215 | .278 | 31 | 1 | 26% | 7% | 111 | +1.7 |
|
✕Joe Benson 2007 · A |
19 | 42→50 | 42→60 | 46→50 | 41 | .206/.256/.312 | .106 | .277 | 8 | 10 | 28% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .214/.282/.309 | .095 | .312 | 6 | 13 | 31% | 7% | 65 | -0.7 | .231/.309/.414 | .183 | .319 | 19 | 15 | 32% | 8% | 101 | +1.4 |
|
●Eloy Jiménez 2016 · A |
19 | 40→50 | 40→65 | 49→40 | 39 | .197/.240/.291 | .094 | .269 | 7 | 7 | 29% | 5% | 41 | -2.3 | .251/.286/.404 | .153 | .321 | 16 | 4 | 26% | 4% | 91 | +1.1 | .273/.314/.492 | .219 | .314 | 30 | 0 | 23% | 5% | 125 | +2.3 |
|
●Steven Souza Jr. 2008 · A |
19 | 37→47 | 41→60 | 49→55 | 38 | .182/.248/.279 | .096 | .291 | 8 | 7 | 38% | 7% | 43 | -2.2 | .191/.250/.282 | .091 | .285 | 8 | 14 | 34% | 6% | 44 | -2.1 | .258/.336/.452 | .194 | .336 | 23 | 25 | 29% | 10% | 124 | +2.2 |
|
●Alex Liddi 2008 · A |
19 | 41→51 | 41→60 | 47→50 | 36 | .200/.246/.304 | .104 | .297 | 8 | 7 | 34% | 5% | 48 | -1.9 | .229/.277/.361 | .132 | .323 | 12 | 8 | 31% | 6% | 76 | +0.1 | .241/.296/.424 | .182 | .336 | 20 | 5 | 33% | 6% | 99 | +1.7 |
|
●Aaron Altherr 2010 · A |
19 | 42→51 | 38→55 | 51→50 | 43 | .201/.253/.279 | .078 | .267 | 5 | 11 | 26% | 6% | 44 | -2.1 | .200/.241/.279 | .079 | .282 | 6 | 16 | 30% | 4% | 38 | -2.6 | .244/.318/.420 | .176 | .303 | 17 | 14 | 24% | 8% | 104 | +1.5 |
|
●Amed Rosario 2015 · A |
19 | 39→49 | 40→50 | 43→55 | 36 | .196/.231/.287 | .092 | .270 | 7 | 5 | 30% | 4% | 37 | -2.7 | .236/.274/.327 | .091 | .314 | 4 | 12 | 25% | 4% | 64 | -0.8 | .286/.323/.422 | .136 | .344 | 12 | 14 | 20% | 5% | 107 | +1.7 |
|
●Austin Dean 2013 · A |
19 | 40→50 | 39→55 | 45 | 45 | .195/.265/.280 | .085 | .270 | 5 | 5 | 28% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .220/.275/.314 | .094 | .285 | 7 | 6 | 24% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .257/.302/.413 | .156 | .304 | 17 | 4 | 21% | 5% | 96 | +1.1 |
|
●Moisés Sierra 2008 · A |
19 | 37→47 | 41→50 | 49→50 | 37 | .188/.241/.283 | .095 | .258 | 9 | 10 | 30% | 5% | 41 | -2.3 | .219/.266/.312 | .093 | .295 | 8 | 8 | 27% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .250/.316/.378 | .129 | .306 | 14 | 15 | 22% | 7% | 94 | +1.0 |
|
●Francisco Peguero 2007 · A |
19 | 43→53 | 41→55 | 48→55 | 36 | .212/.247/.312 | .100 | .284 | 8 | 6 | 28% | 4% | 50 | -1.8 | .226/.259/.303 | .077 | .299 | 4 | 17 | 25% | 4% | 52 | -1.6 | .287/.327/.455 | .168 | .332 | 22 | 7 | 20% | 4% | 119 | +2.3 |
|
●Franmil Reyes 2014 · A |
19 | 45→52 | 40→65 | 47→45 | 42 | .213/.271/.311 | .098 | .300 | 7 | 9 | 30% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .209/.256/.309 | .100 | .279 | 9 | 4 | 27% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .256/.325/.480 | .224 | .314 | 34 | 0 | 29% | 9% | 126 | +2.6 |
|
●Jorge Bonifacio 2012 · A |
19 | 43→50 | 41→55 | 47→45 | 39 | .210/.259/.318 | .109 | .297 | 7 | 9 | 31% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .220/.266/.321 | .101 | .296 | 7 | 6 | 27% | 5% | 60 | -1.0 | .237/.304/.388 | .151 | .310 | 17 | 3 | 28% | 8% | 91 | +0.8 |
|
●Lane Thomas 2015 · A |
19 | 45→51 | 37→55 | 51→55 | 43 | .210/.271/.289 | .080 | .308 | 3 | 9 | 31% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .192/.258/.279 | .087 | .311 | 6 | 12 | 37% | 8% | 47 | -1.9 | .248/.312/.427 | .179 | .308 | 21 | 13 | 25% | 7% | 107 | +2.0 |
|
●Tim Beckham 2009 · A |
19 | 42→52 | 38→55 | 49→50 | 38 | .202/.248/.282 | .080 | .290 | 5 | 7 | 31% | 5% | 43 | -2.2 | .219/.267/.307 | .088 | .310 | 5 | 10 | 29% | 5% | 57 | -1.2 | .248/.301/.421 | .173 | .319 | 22 | 4 | 28% | 6% | 100 | +1.3 |
|
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A |
19 | 44→53 | 44→50 | 50→55 | 42 | .218/.268/.339 | .121 | .285 | 11 | 12 | 27% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .231/.294/.375 | .144 | .300 | 17 | 16 | 27% | 7% | 87 | +0.8 | .236/.302/.381 | .145 | .298 | 17 | 19 | 26% | 8% | 88 | +0.8 |
|
●Dylan Carlson 2018 · A |
19 | 41→51 | 40→55 | 43→50 | 42 | .199/.266/.292 | .092 | .292 | 8 | 6 | 33% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .216/.284/.350 | .134 | .284 | 14 | 9 | 28% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .242/.327/.396 | .154 | .296 | 14 | 4 | 22% | 9% | 105 | +1.6 |
|
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A |
19 | 42 | 42→45 | 47→50 | 43 | .205/.277/.309 | .104 | .271 | 9 | 8 | 27% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .224/.284/.326 | .102 | .290 | 5 | 11 | 24% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .226/.280/.337 | .111 | .291 | 6 | 11 | 23% | 4% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A |
18 | 44→54 | 42→55 | 49→55 | 45 | .217/.279/.319 | .102 | .277 | 10 | 10 | 25% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .233/.280/.389 | .156 | .311 | 18 | 19 | 30% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .261/.307/.430 | .168 | .314 | 19 | 26 | 23% | 6% | 101 | +1.8 |