Jalvin Arias — OGILVIE

Jalvin AriasOF FCL Phillies

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 230 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 61 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†27

AVG/OBP/SLG.145 / .228 / .217

PA61

HR1

K%37

BB%8

BABIP223

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	47	7	0	0	1	8	29	1	1	2	149	286	213	498	64	353	52	14	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	43	10	0	0	2	12	20	1	1	2	233	411	372	783	140	381	36	21	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	111	16	2	1	0	12	50	1	7	5	144	234	180	414	36	258	40	10	183	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	105	22	2	1	0	18	34	1	7	5	210	331	248	578	38	306	27	14	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	PHI	—	92	82	8	1	1	1	6	49	2	0	0	98	178	171	349	73	206	53	7	139	-35	-14	+0	+0	-1	+3	-1.2
YTD	19	ROK	PHI	—	92	79	11	1	1	1	9	34	2	0	0	139	244	215	460	76	217	37	10	217	24	-8	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
ROS	19	ROK	PHI	0%	61	55	8	1	0	1	5	23	1	1	0	145	228	217	445	72	257	37	8	220	27	-5	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.4
ROS	19	MLB	PHI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		258	—	—	213	21	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	PHI	—	92	83	8	1	1	1	6	49	2	0	0	96	178	169	346	72	200	53	7	139	-35	-14	+0	+0	-1	+3	-1.2
TOT	19	ROK	PHI	—	153	137	16	2	1	2	11	72	3	1	0	117	198	189	388	73	214	47	7	171	-11	-19	+0	+0	-1	+4	-1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	PHI	34%	194	175	30	5	1	3	15	69	2	3	1	171	245	263	508	91	261	36	8	232	36	-14	+0	+0	-1	+5	-1.0
2027	20	MLB	PHI	34%	67	61	10	2	0	1	5	24	1	1	0	164	239	246	485	82	263	36	7	225	30	-5	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	67	62	10	2	0	1	5	24	1	1	0	161	239	242	481	81	243	36	7	225	30	-5	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	97	19	0	10	49	233	10	10	0	161	240	243	483	82	243	36	8	225	30	-51	+2	+0	-4	+18	-3.6
Career	—			—	436	388	61	8	2	5	40	171	5	12	8	157	245	227	471	70	261	39	9	219	26	-37	-1	+0	-3	+12	-2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	91	12	3	7	60	255	7	18	12	157	245	225	469	67	263	39	9	219	26	-54	-1	+0	-4	+18	-4.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	43	10	0	0	2	12	20	1	1	2	233	411	372	783	140	381	36	21	366	138	+2	-1	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	105	22	2	1	0	18	34	1	7	5	210	331	248	578	38	306	27	14	277	70	-4	-1	—	—	+4	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jalvin Arias (OGILVIE)	19	20→25	33→38	48→53	58	117/198/189	73	214	2	1	47%	7%	-11	-1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhonny Piron 2023 · A	19	36	40	47→55	45	179/264/268	89	265	9	11	34%	9%	48	-1.9	184/254/256	72	292	5	9	36%	7%	40	-2.4	122/192/154	32	205	0	12	37%	6%	-15	-1.4
✕Wilfredo Lara 2023 · A	19	36→39	38→40	49→55	39	176/241/254	78	265	5	10	34%	6%	33	-2.9	183/258/278	95	267	8	13	32%	8%	47	-1.9	169/247/259	90	238	8	18	31%	8%	36	-1.4
✕Ranfy Adon 2017 · A	19	36	39→45	49→50	41	180/246/264	84	259	7	12	32%	7%	39	-2.5	198/245/300	102	329	8	12	40%	5%	46	-2.0	173/231/277	105	327	9	25	47%	5%	33	-0.6
✕Javier Gutierrez 2010 · A	19	37	39→40	51→45	44	180/264/267	87	259	6	7	31%	8%	48	-1.9	203/282/290	87	282	6	7	28%	8%	61	-1.0	190/282/266	76	253	5	5	25%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2018 · A	19	36	37→40	46→50	43	170/272/245	75	268	5	9	35%	8%	47	-1.9	177/263/273	96	284	8	9	38%	7%	50	-1.8	145/224/227	82	287	8	19	48%	6%	18	-1.3
✕Franklin Correa 2015 · A	19	37	38→40	48→50	42	179/250/257	78	271	5	10	34%	8%	39	-2.5	184/236/265	81	290	6	7	36%	5%	33	-2.9	155/195/226	71	251	6	4	39%	3%	4	-1.2
✕Hector Martinez 2017 · A	19	39	39→40	49→50	40	186/260/269	83	292	7	11	36%	8%	46	-2.0	178/258/251	73	326	6	8	43%	8%	40	-2.4	138/228/191	52	277	5	7	47%	8%	12	-1.3
✕Angel Lopez 2019 · A	19	37	38→40	48→50	43	180/250/262	83	250	5	10	29%	7%	40	-2.4	196/269/286	90	267	7	11	27%	7%	54	-1.4	174/260/260	85	229	8	15	26%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Ariel Montesino 2015 · A	19	38	36→40	53→50	41	181/239/249	69	257	3	16	30%	6%	30	-3.1	196/247/255	59	259	3	9	24%	6%	35	-2.8	188/241/238	51	246	3	7	24%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Pablo Abreu 2019 · A	19	39	40→45	48→50	39	191/249/284	93	284	8	9	34%	7%	44	-2.1	187/243/269	82	316	6	8	40%	6%	37	-2.6	136/189/191	56	254	2	6	45%	6%	-6	-1.6
✕Stiven Acevedo 2022 · A	19	41→31	38→45	52→55	38	200/251/271	71	285	6	10	31%	5%	42	-2.3	184/235/281	97	295	10	18	39%	6%	37	-2.6	166/215/266	100	260	12	23	40%	5%	22	-1.9
✕Felix Abreu 2017 · A	19	38	37→30	51→45	43	185/251/257	72	261	4	8	29%	7%	38	-2.6	202/259/264	62	276	3	8	26%	5%	43	-2.2	202/251/235	33	269	0	8	23%	4%	28	-1.1
✕Miguel Alfonzo 2007 · A	19	37	36→40	46→50	41	176/244/239	63	271	3	9	34%	7%	30	-3.1	198/270/274	76	314	6	10	36%	7%	52	-1.6	192/269/265	73	315	7	9	38%	7%	47	-0.9
✕Neifi Vasquez 2023 · A	19	35	34→45	52→50	32	170/214/222	52	276	2	8	38%	4%	12	-4.4	189/248/289	100	286	9	11	35%	7%	45	-2.1	161/229/287	127	228	13	17	34%	8%	36	-1.0
✕Ignacio Valdez 2014 · A	19	38	36→45	49→50	39	180/242/249	69	280	3	11	35%	7%	32	-3.0	173/238/275	102	269	8	7	37%	7%	37	-2.6	141/208/262	122	210	12	5	38%	6%	20	-1.2
✕Cristopher Cespedes 2017 · A	19	35→36	39→45	48→40	34	177/227/258	81	267	6	6	35%	4%	28	-3.2	205/253/310	105	285	8	6	30%	5%	53	-1.5	204/253/325	121	283	10	4	30%	5%	54	-0.4
✕Shalin Polanco 2023 · A	19	36→21	39→45	47→50	37	178/232/259	81	273	7	10	36%	6%	30	-3.1	186/247/307	121	297	13	12	40%	7%	50	-1.7	168/233/292	124	263	15	12	40%	7%	38	-1.5
✕Giuseppe Peguero 2019 · A	19	34	38→40	50→55	39	162/244/243	81	287	5	8	42%	8%	33	-2.9	169/258/258	89	294	6	13	41%	8%	43	-2.2	114/225/201	87	201	7	20	42%	8%	15	-1.7
✕Alexander Benua 2022 · A	18	36	35→40	54→55	39	170/242/232	61	261	2	13	33%	6%	28	-3.2	190/257/267	77	288	5	16	34%	6%	44	-2.1	181/251/262	81	286	6	17	36%	6%	38	-0.9
✕Simon Juan 2023 · A	18	38	38→45	56→50	38	183/245/263	80	272	5	14	33%	6%	37	-2.6	188/242/284	96	295	9	9	37%	6%	41	-2.3	186/239/293	108	289	12	10	38%	6%	40	-1.0