Jalvin Arias — OGILVIE

Jalvin AriasOF FCL Phillies

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 230 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†35

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP259

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	43	10	0	0	2	12	20	1	1	2	233	411	372	783	140	381	36	21	366	134	+2	-1	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	105	22	2	1	0	18	34	1	7	5	210	331	248	578	38	306	27	14	277	74	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	47	7	0	0	1	8	29	1	1	2	149	286	213	498	64	335	52	14	243	51	-3	-1	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	112	15	1	1	0	11	50	1	7	5	134	218	161	378	27	242	40	9	186	12	-13	-1	—	—	+3	-1.1
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	47	7	0	0	1	8	29	1	1	2	149	286	213	498	64	353	52	14	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	43	10	0	0	2	12	20	1	1	2	233	411	372	783	140	381	36	21	366	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	112	15	1	1	0	11	50	1	7	5	134	218	161	378	27	238	40	9	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	105	22	2	1	0	18	34	1	7	5	210	331	248	578	38	306	27	14	277	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	47	7	0	0	1	8	29	1	1	2	149	286	213	498	64	335	52	14	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	112	15	1	1	0	11	50	1	7	5	134	218	161	378	27	242	40	9	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	56	47	7	0	0	1	8	29	1	1	2	149	286	213	498	64	335	52	14	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	125	112	15	1	1	0	11	50	1	7	5	134	218	161	378	27	242	40	9	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	PHI	—	92	82	8	1	1	1	6	49	2	0	0	98	178	171	349	73	206	53	7	139	-20	-13	+0	+0	-1	+2	-1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	PHI	—	92	79	11	1	1	1	9	34	2	0	0	139	244	215	460	76	217	37	10	217	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	PHI	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		257	33	11	220	35	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	19	ROK MLE	PHI	—	101	90	9	1	1	1	7	52	2	0	0	100	182	167	348	67	205	51	7	146	-15	-14	+0	+0	-1	+2	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	194	175	31	5	1	3	15	69	2	3	1	177	250	269	519	91	261	36	8	232	43	-13	+0	+0	-1	+4	-1.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	67	61	10	2	0	1	5	24	1	1	0	164	239	246	485	82	263	36	7	226	43	-5	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	67	61	10	2	0	1	5	24	1	1	0	164	239	246	485	82	250	36	7	226	34	-5	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	97	19	0	10	49	233	10	10	0	164	240	247	487	83	249	36	8	226	34	-44	+2	+0	-4	+14	-3.3
Career	—	MLE		—	384	342	54	6	2	4	35	151	4	11	8	158	244	222	466	64	265	39	9	218	34	-14	+0	+0	-1	+4	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	91	10	3	7	59	256	7	19	14	157	243	221	464	64	263	39	9	218	34	-44	+1	+0	-4	+14	-3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jalvin Arias (OGILVIE)	19	20→25	33→38	48→53	58	160/234/234	74	257	1	1	37%	8%	35	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhonny Piron 2023 · A	19	36	40	47→55	44	178/261/262	84	267	8	11	34%	9%	51	-2.2	184/251/255	71	292	4	9	36%	7%	45	-2.7	123/190/157	34	205	0	12	37%	5%	-1	-1.3
✕Javier Gutierrez 2010 · A	19	37	39→40	51→45	44	180/264/267	87	259	6	7	31%	8%	54	-2.0	203/282/290	87	282	6	7	28%	8%	65	-1.2	190/282/266	76	253	5	5	25%	10%	57	-0.5
✕Ranfy Adon 2017 · A	19	36	39→45	49→50	41	180/246/264	84	259	7	12	32%	7%	46	-2.6	198/245/300	102	329	8	12	40%	5%	53	-2.1	176/236/282	105	327	9	25	46%	5%	44	-0.6
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2018 · A	19	36	37→40	46→50	43	170/272/245	75	268	5	9	35%	8%	53	-2.1	177/263/273	96	284	8	9	38%	7%	55	-1.9	147/225/231	84	286	8	19	48%	6%	29	-1.2
✕Franklin Correa 2015 · A	19	37	38→40	48→50	42	179/250/257	78	271	5	10	34%	8%	46	-2.6	184/236/265	81	290	6	7	36%	5%	41	-3.0	155/195/226	71	251	6	4	39%	3%	15	-1.2
✕Wilfredo Lara 2023 · A	19	37→40	38→45	49→50	40	178/244/259	80	265	5	10	33%	6%	43	-2.8	190/263/291	101	272	9	13	31%	8%	58	-1.7	175/255/268	93	250	8	18	31%	9%	48	-1.4
✕Angel Lopez 2019 · A	19	37	38→40	48→50	43	180/250/262	83	250	5	10	29%	7%	47	-2.6	196/269/286	90	267	7	11	27%	7%	59	-1.6	174/260/260	85	229	8	15	26%	8%	50	-1.0
✕Hector Martinez 2017 · A	19	39	39→40	49→50	40	186/260/269	83	292	7	11	36%	8%	52	-2.2	178/258/251	73	326	6	8	43%	8%	47	-2.5	138/228/191	52	277	5	7	47%	8%	22	-1.3
✕Ariel Montesino 2015 · A	19	38	36→40	53→50	41	181/239/249	69	257	3	16	30%	6%	38	-3.2	196/247/255	59	258	3	9	24%	6%	42	-2.9	189/241/241	52	247	3	7	23%	6%	35	-1.2
✕Romer Cuadrado 2017 · A	19	38→35	39→40	45	41	185/253/265	81	284	6	8	35%	8%	48	-2.5	202/259/295	93	321	8	7	37%	6%	57	-1.8	197/252/288	92	310	8	5	37%	6%	50	-1.6
✕Neifi Vasquez 2023 · A	19	35	34→45	52→50	33	169/214/221	52	272	2	8	37%	4%	22	-4.3	188/247/287	99	283	8	11	34%	6%	51	-2.3	161/227/284	124	228	12	17	34%	7%	42	-1.1
✕Pablo Abreu 2019 · A	19	39	40→45	48→50	39	191/249/284	93	284	8	9	34%	7%	51	-2.3	187/242/269	82	315	6	8	39%	6%	45	-2.7	136/187/194	58	253	2	6	45%	6%	7	-1.6
✕Felix Abreu 2017 · A	19	38	37→30	51→45	43	185/251/257	72	261	4	8	29%	7%	45	-2.7	202/259/264	62	276	3	8	26%	5%	49	-2.4	202/251/235	33	269	0	8	23%	4%	36	-1.1
✕Stiven Acevedo 2022 · A	19	41→33	38→45	52→55	38	198/251/268	70	284	6	10	31%	5%	47	-2.5	182/234/279	97	297	10	18	40%	6%	44	-2.8	165/214/265	100	262	12	23	41%	5%	31	-2.0
✕Ramon Peralta 2023 · A	19	38	39→40	52→50	45	183/268/268	84	281	7	12	34%	9%	55	-1.9	189/271/280	91	318	7	8	39%	9%	59	-1.6	170/257/265	94	295	7	6	41%	9%	48	-0.8
✕Miguel Alfonzo 2007 · A	19	37	36→40	46→50	41	176/244/239	63	271	3	9	34%	7%	38	-3.2	198/270/274	76	314	6	10	36%	7%	57	-1.8	192/269/265	73	315	7	9	38%	7%	53	-0.9
✕Ignacio Valdez 2014 · A	19	38	36→45	49→50	39	180/242/249	69	280	3	11	35%	7%	40	-3.1	173/238/275	102	269	8	7	37%	7%	45	-2.7	141/208/262	122	210	12	5	38%	6%	30	-1.2
✕Cristopher Cespedes 2017 · A	19	35→36	39→45	48→40	34	177/227/258	81	267	6	6	35%	4%	36	-3.3	205/253/310	105	285	8	6	30%	5%	58	-1.7	204/253/325	121	283	10	4	30%	5%	59	-0.5
✕Simon Juan 2023 · A	18	38	38→45	56→50	38	183/244/260	78	273	5	14	33%	6%	43	-2.8	186/240/278	92	291	8	9	37%	6%	46	-2.6	178/231/275	98	279	10	10	38%	6%	40	-1.2
✕Benyamin Bailey 2022 · A	20	38	38→40	49→45	43	182/260/255	73	295	6	6	38%	9%	49	-2.4	183/252/263	80	308	7	4	39%	8%	47	-2.5	155/231/226	71	259	7	0	40%	8%	32	-2.1