Jalvin Arias
OF FCL Phillies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Phillies … | 56 | .233/.411/.372 | 2 | 1 | 49 | — | .152/.304/.217 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKDSL Phillies … | 125 | .210/.331/.248 | 0 | 7 | 10 | — | .127/.226/.155 |
| 2026 | 19 | ROKPHI | 92 | .139/.244/.215 | 1 | 0 | -20 | — | .098/.178/.171 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBPHI | 202 | .174/.247/.243 | 2 | 3 | 40 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBPHI | 36 | .181/.254/.261 | 0 | 1 | 46 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | — | 56 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 411 | 372 | 783 | 140 | 381 | 36 | 21 | 366 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | — | 125 | 105 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 210 | 331 | 248 | 578 | 38 | 306 | 27 | 14 | 277 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 79 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 244 | 215 | 460 | 76 | 217 | 37 | 10 | 217 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 56 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 304 | 217 | 521 | 65 | 272 | 45 | 16 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 125 | 110 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 127 | 226 | 155 | 380 | 27 | 200 | 34 | 10 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 178 | 171 | 349 | 73 | 173 | 53 | 7 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 56 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 304 | 217 | 521 | 65 | 300 | 45 | 16 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies Red | — | 56 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 411 | 372 | 783 | 140 | 381 | 36 | 21 | 366 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 125 | 110 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 127 | 226 | 155 | 380 | 27 | 203 | 34 | 10 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies Red | — | 125 | 105 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 210 | 331 | 248 | 578 | 38 | 306 | 27 | 14 | 277 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 178 | 171 | 349 | 73 | 206 | 53 | 7 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 79 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 244 | 215 | 460 | 76 | 217 | 37 | 10 | 217 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 56 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 304 | 217 | 521 | 65 | 272 | 45 | 16 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 125 | 110 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 127 | 226 | 155 | 380 | 27 | 200 | 34 | 10 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 84 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 178 | 167 | 344 | 71 | 173 | 53 | 7 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 56 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 304 | 217 | 521 | 65 | 272 | 45 | 16 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies Red | — | 125 | 110 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 127 | 226 | 155 | 380 | 27 | 200 | 34 | 10 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 92 | 84 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 178 | 167 | 344 | 71 | 173 | 53 | 7 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 202 | 182 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 174 | 247 | 243 | 490 | 69 | 263 | 34 | 8 | 228 | 40 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | PHI | 34% | 105 | 95 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 254 | 258 | 512 | 79 | 266 | 33 | 8 | 236 | 46 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | PHI | 34% | 36 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 254 | 261 | 516 | 81 | 266 | 33 | 8 | 238 | 46 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 36 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 222 | 182 | 404 | 30 | 238 | 33 | 8 | 238 | 21 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 90 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 217 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 151 | 222 | 181 | 403 | 30 | 237 | 33 | 8 | 238 | 21 | -42 | +4 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 428 | 379 | 53 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 168 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 140 | 231 | 193 | 424 | 53 | 236 | 39 | 9 | 199 | 21 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 82 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 61 | 255 | 8 | 17 | 12 | 142 | 234 | 200 | 434 | 57 | 239 | 39 | 9 | 199 | 21 | -43 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -3.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 92 PAwOBA .217 → .138 (−79)K% 37.0% → 53.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.96% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 53.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.015 | ×0.995 | 14.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.015 | ×0.995 | 1.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.015 | ×0.995 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .217 → .138; ISO .076 → .046; BABIP .217 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Phillies Red · 125 PAwOBA .274 → .183 (−91)K% 27.2% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.20% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.40% | ÷0.980 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 10.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.76% | ÷1.063 | ×0.680 | ×1.026 | ×0.995 | 17.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.932 | ×0.600 | ×1.026 | ×0.995 | 1.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.026 | ×0.995 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.849 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 113, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .274 → .183; ISO .038 → .025; BABIP .306 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Phillies Red · 56 PAwOBA .358 → .240 (−118)K% 35.7% → 44.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 15.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.78% | ÷0.919 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.008 | 25.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.071 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.913 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 4.51% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 84, 2B 103, 3B 114, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .358 → .240; ISO .140 → .069; BABIP .381 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).