Colby Martin

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ATOR	9	9	7.27	6.10	16.7%	29.2%	—	K 16.7% · BB 29.2% · FIP 5.39
2025	24	MIX4 levels	44	50	1.97	2.17	33.3%	14.4%	—	K 25.4% · BB 16.7% · FIP 3.07
2026	25	AAMIA	34	45	6.75	4.75	30.3%	15.6%	—	K 24.6% · BB 17.2% · FIP 5.70
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIA	24	25	5.17	5.17	24.6%	15.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBMIA	16	17	5.11	5.12	24.4%	15.3%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBrandon Cunniff (age 26) · Esmerling Vasquez (age 26) · CJ Weins (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%24.6%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	9	0	9	48	8	14	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	7.27	5.39	—
2024	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	9	0	9	48	8	14	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	7.27	5.39	—
2024	23	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	9	0	9	48	8	14	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	7.27	6.10	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	44	0	50	201	67	29	0	0%	1.1	25.4%	16.7%	8.7%	0.0%	1.97	3.07	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	44	0	50	201	67	29	0	0%	1.1	25.4%	16.7%	8.7%	0.0%	1.97	3.07	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	44	0	50	201	67	29	0	0%	1.1	33.3%	14.4%	18.9%	0.0%	1.97	2.17	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	34	0	45	211	64	33	8	0%	1.3	24.6%	17.2%	7.4%	4.5%	6.75	5.70	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	34	0	45	211	64	33	8	0%	1.3	24.6%	17.2%	7.4%	4.5%	6.75	5.70	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	34	0	45	211	64	33	8	0%	1.3	30.3%	15.6%	14.7%	3.8%	6.75	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIA	24	0	25	106	26	17	3	0%	1.0	24.6%	15.9%	8.6%	3.2%	5.17	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	42	0	45	188	46	29	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	15.3%	9.1%	3.2%	5.11	5.12	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	16	0	17	72	18	11	2	0%	1.1	24.4%	15.3%	9.1%	3.2%	5.11	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	17	11	2	0%	1.0	24.4%	15.3%	9.1%	3.2%	5.11	4.74	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	131	24	0%	1.1	24.4%	15.3%	9.1%	3.2%	5.11	4.74	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		87	0	104	460	111	84	10	0%	1.2	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	2.1%	4.49	4.52	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	882	213	161	18	0%	1.2	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	2.1%	4.49	4.52	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colby Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	24.6%	15.9%	3.2%	—	5.12	24.4%	9.1%	45	-0.05	—	—	—
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	87
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	86
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	85
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	85
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	83
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	83
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	83
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	81
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	81
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	81
Todd Wellemeyer R 2005 · 5.70 FIP	26	SU	5.70	21.9%	14.4%	4.8%	.291	4.47	16.5%	6.8%	349	-1.23	3.35	615	81
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	81
Addison Russ R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	26	SU	4.58	24.3%	15.5%	2.9%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	194	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	80
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	24.5%	15.6%	1.24	5.13
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*