Colby Martin — OGILVIE

Colby Martin P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%24.9%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	9	0	9	48	8	14	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	7.27	5.39	—
2024	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	9	0	9	48	8	14	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	7.27	5.39	—
2024	23	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	9	0	9	48	8	14	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	29.2%	-12.5%	0.0%	7.27	6.10	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	44	0	50	201	67	29	0	0%	1.1	25.4%	16.7%	8.7%	0.0%	1.97	3.07	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	44	0	50	201	67	29	0	0%	1.1	25.4%	16.7%	8.7%	0.0%	1.97	3.07	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	44	0	50	201	67	29	0	0%	1.1	33.3%	14.4%	18.9%	0.0%	1.97	2.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	34	0	45	211	64	33	8	0%	1.3	24.6%	17.2%	7.4%	4.5%	6.75	5.70	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	34	0	45	211	64	33	8	0%	1.3	24.6%	17.2%	7.4%	4.5%	6.75	5.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	MIA	34	0	45	211	64	33	8	0%	1.3	30.3%	15.6%	14.7%	3.8%	6.75	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIA	43	0	45	191	48	27	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	14.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.67	4.66	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	42	0	45	188	47	26	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	13.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.66	4.67	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIA	19	0	20	84	21	12	2	0%	1.1	25.0%	14.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.67	4.66	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	27	0	28	118	29	16	3	0%	1.0	24.8%	13.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.66	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	203	51	29	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	14.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.66	4.29	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	120	25	0%	1.1	24.9%	14.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.66	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		87	0	104	460	111	84	10	0%	1.2	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	2.1%	4.49	4.52	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	882	213	161	18	0%	1.2	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	2.1%	4.49	4.52	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colby Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	24.9%	14.8%	2.7%	—	4.66	24.9%	10.8%	90	-0.06	—	—	—
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	89
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	85
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	85
Matt Blackham R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	25	SU	3.93	24.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.236	4.81	25.9%	12.0%	80	+0.88	2.08	187	84
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	84
Trey Benton R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	23.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.366	2.92	18.1%	7.4%	31	-1.57	2.92	139	84
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	84
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	84
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	83
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	83
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Kyle Hill R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	25	SU	3.87	22.7%	14.9%	1.5%	.282	4.59	23.5%	10.8%	73	+0.72	3.62	156	83
Craig Brooks R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	23.4%	15.1%	1.7%	.260	5.58	31.1%	15.9%	59	+1.63	3.23	229	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	37	24.9%	14.2%	1.05	4.68
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99