Jack Natili — OGILVIE

Jack NatiliC Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 R/R A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .289 / .389

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP300

ISO122

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	67	56	14	3	0	4	6	19	3	0	0	250	354	518	872	268	294	28	9	372	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	67	58	11	2	0	3	4	26	3	0	0	190	277	379	656	190	260	39	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	67	58	11	2	0	3	4	26	3	0	0	190	277	379	656	190	267	39	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	67	56	14	3	0	4	6	19	3	0	0	250	354	518	872	268	294	28	9	372	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	67	60	11	2	0	3	4	26	3	0	0	183	277	367	644	183	260	39	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	67	60	11	2	0	3	4	26	3	0	0	183	277	367	644	183	260	39	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	COL	4%	177	160	34	6	1	5	12	57	3	2	1	211	277	358	636	147	285	32	7	284	78	-5	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	COL	4%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	223	289	389	678	166	300	33	0	301	78	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	COL	36%	173	156	33	6	1	5	12	54	3	1	1	214	281	363	644	150	287	31	7	288	81	-4	-0	-0	+3	+4	0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	COL	47%	287	260	56	10	1	9	20	89	5	2	1	216	284	368	651	151	288	31	7	291	83	-6	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	COL	52%	357	323	71	13	2	11	25	109	6	3	1	218	286	371	656	153	288	31	7	293	84	-7	+0	-1	+6	+8	0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	COL	54%	403	365	80	15	2	12	28	121	7	3	1	219	287	373	660	153	288	30	7	294	85	-7	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	COL	54%	425	385	84	15	2	13	30	127	7	3	1	219	288	372	660	152	287	30	7	294	85	-7	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	COL	54%	436	395	86	16	2	13	31	131	7	3	2	218	286	367	653	149	286	30	7	291	83	-9	-0	-1	+8	+9	0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	434	393	85	15	2	13	31	132	7	2	2	215	283	361	644	146	285	30	7	288	81	-10	-0	-2	+8	+9	0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	COL	52%	430	391	83	15	2	12	30	132	6	2	5	212	279	353	632	141	283	31	7	283	78	-11	-2	-3	+8	+9	0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	COL	52%	407	370	77	14	2	11	28	126	6	2	5	208	274	343	617	135	279	31	7	277	74	-13	-2	-3	+7	+9	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	COL	36%	62	57	12	2	0	2	4	19	1	1	0	226	292	395	687	168	302	31	6	304	81	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	COL	47%	135	123	28	5	1	5	9	42	2	1	0	229	295	399	694	170	303	31	7	307	83	-3	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	COL	52%	186	168	38	7	1	6	13	57	3	1	1	231	297	402	700	172	303	31	7	310	84	-3	-0	-0	+3	+4	0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	COL	54%	219	198	47	8	2	8	15	66	4	2	1	232	299	404	703	173	303	30	7	311	85	-4	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	COL	54%	231	209	49	9	2	8	16	69	4	2	1	232	299	403	703	171	302	30	7	311	85	-4	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	COL	54%	237	214	50	9	2	8	17	71	4	1	1	230	297	398	695	168	301	30	7	308	83	-5	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	231	209	48	9	1	8	16	70	4	1	1	227	294	391	685	163	299	30	7	304	81	-5	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	COL	52%	225	204	45	8	1	7	16	69	3	1	2	224	290	382	672	158	297	31	7	299	78	-6	-1	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	COL	52%	212	192	41	7	1	6	15	66	3	1	3	219	285	371	655	151	293	31	7	292	74	-7	-1	-2	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1738	1574	358	64	11	58	121	529	28	11	10	227	294	393	687	165	302	30	7	305	81	-38	-2	-6	+31	+38	2.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	134	24	4	22	45	198	10	4	4	228	293	394	687	166	301	30	7	305	81	-14	-1	-2	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3499	3170	681	124	16	104	244	1073	58	22	19	215	283	362	646	148	287	31	7	289	81	-76	-3	-12	+61	+74	4.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	126	23	3	19	45	199	11	4	4	214	282	360	642	146	286	31	7	289	81	-14	-1	-2	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	3.9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
/162	664	21	1	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
#5Devin Mesoracolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,574 PA	2.4	1,574	58	4	232	309	406	+28	-13	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	2	+11.9	-5.3	2.5	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.6	1,740	52	11	216	281	365	+31	-10	4.0	3.8
/162	664	20	4	+11.9	-3.8	1.5	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jack Natili (OGILVIE)	22	45	55	30	—	209/275/355	146	285	2	1	32%	7%	78	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Wing 2012 · A	23	49→50	47→55	35→40	41	245/290/379	135	305	14	4	24%	5%	88	+0.4	214/254/333	119	280	11	5	27%	4%	63	-1.3	224/265/377	153	286	16	4	27%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Deivy Grullón 2018 · AA	22	45	44→55	38→30	37	222/258/334	113	301	12	2	30%	4%	65	-1.2	239/283/401	162	320	21	3	31%	6%	91	+0.6	225/274/398	173	303	25	1	34%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Victor Bericoto 2024 · AA	22	44→49	50	41→40	42	226/280/376	150	296	19	3	30%	7%	84	+0.1	235/281/359	124	312	14	4	28%	6%	80	-0.2	240/285/353	113	317	13	3	27%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→38	47→55	37→40	45	204/267/342	138	254	15	4	26%	7%	72	-0.7	206/284/354	148	268	16	3	28%	9%	81	-0.1	186/283/356	170	238	19	4	29%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Joe Perez 2022 · AA	22	48	48→45	41→45	41	236/285/378	142	323	15	5	31%	6%	86	+0.3	227/281/345	118	328	13	5	33%	7%	76	-0.4	215/273/324	108	316	13	4	34%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	38→48	51→50	38→40	46	201/294/355	155	278	19	2	33%	10%	86	+0.3	220/281/359	139	288	16	3	28%	7%	80	-0.1	222/277/356	134	285	15	2	27%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Andy Marte 2006 · MLB	22	45→49	53→55	37→40	52	233/305/408	175	268	20	3	22%	10%	101	+1.4	228/278/386	158	268	18	3	22%	6%	85	+0.2	240/289/401	161	270	19	2	19%	6%	92	+0.4
✕Luis Exposito 2009 · A	22	47→50	52→50	43→30	37	244/276/404	160	303	21	3	27%	4%	88	+0.5	239/284/366	127	302	12	3	24%	5%	82	+0.0	235/285/352	117	298	10	2	24%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Edinson Rincon 2013 · AA	22	51→56	44→45	34→30	42	253/289/374	120	305	12	2	21%	4%	86	+0.3	234/275/320	86	297	6	4	22%	5%	68	-1.0	208/261/257	49	281	2	0	25%	6%	46	-1.1
✕Chris Valaika 2008 · A	22	47→57	43→45	36→40	38	230/276/343	113	307	10	2	28%	4%	74	-0.5	245/280/357	112	310	11	4	24%	4%	78	-0.3	253/284/361	107	314	10	4	22%	4%	79	-0.2
✕Kyle Wilson 2006 · A	23	46	55→60	38→30	38	239/286/424	185	309	24	4	31%	5%	98	+1.2	216/259/333	117	277	12	4	26%	4%	66	-1.1	194/230/280	86	245	7	0	24%	2%	40	-1.4
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	45→47	48→50	45→50	42	226/295/372	146	296	15	5	28%	6%	89	+0.5	222/280/363	141	284	16	8	27%	6%	81	-0.1	215/271/359	144	269	17	9	26%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Cristian Santana 2019 · A	22	44→51	49→50	41→30	32	228/253/364	135	313	19	3	34%	3%	71	-0.8	245/267/361	116	327	13	3	29%	3%	75	-0.5	256/283/351	96	338	10	0	27%	3%	75	-0.3
✕Alex Jackson 2018 · AA	22	40→38	49→60	42→30	34	204/259/348	144	300	17	3	37%	5%	70	-0.8	193/257/364	171	286	22	3	40%	5%	74	-0.6	173/252/371	198	240	29	2	40%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Clint Coulter 2015 · A	22	43	48→50	42→40	46	218/299/364	146	282	16	5	28%	8%	88	+0.5	210/277/335	125	268	12	4	26%	6%	74	-0.6	200/266/338	137	245	16	4	25%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Eric Haase 2015 · A	22	38→42	48→65	42→40	37	197/249/342	145	289	16	3	37%	6%	64	-1.3	193/251/352	159	293	18	4	39%	6%	68	-1.0	220/279/438	218	287	32	2	35%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Jamie Romak 2008 · A	22	40→48	52→55	41→45	44	206/290/375	170	292	20	4	35%	9%	88	+0.5	201/265/348	147	283	17	3	34%	7%	72	-0.7	202/257/379	177	268	21	5	33%	6%	74	-0.4
●Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→46	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	92	+0.7	236/302/401	165	298	20	2	27%	8%	98	+1.2	235/303/390	155	288	20	1	25%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Allan Cerda 2022 · A	22	40→25	53→55	39→45	40	204/285/385	180	305	20	5	38%	8%	88	+0.5	177/277/336	159	278	19	7	40%	10%	75	-0.5	147/260/300	153	223	20	7	41%	11%	58	-0.9
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	45→51	49→50	37→45	54	228/313/371	143	268	17	3	22%	10%	95	+1.0	231/301/358	127	283	12	5	21%	9%	87	+0.4	228/292/363	135	273	14	6	21%	7%	83	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps