Alexander Meckley

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 240 lbs A peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AWSH	3	0	6	0.00	3.45	20.8%	16.7%	—	K 20.8% · BB 16.7% · FIP 3.45
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	22	102	4.13	3.31	19.6%	10.8%	—	K 14.7% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.08
2026	23	MIX2 levels	26	19	110	4.65	3.40	22.1%	13.4%	—	K 16.5% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	13	13	75	5.78	5.78	13.4%	16.6%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBWSH	7	7	43	5.50	5.42	15.3%	14.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBWSH	11	11	67	5.33	5.27	16.4%	14.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJustin Miller (age 24) · Jason Savacool (age 22) · Jacob Meador (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%13.4%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%-3.2%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	3	0	6	24	5	4	0	0%	1.9	20.8%	16.7%	4.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.45	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	3	0	6	24	5	4	0	0%	1.9	20.8%	16.7%	4.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.45	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	3	0	6	24	5	4	0	0%	1.9	20.8%	16.7%	4.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	102	453	89	49	4	96%	4.4	14.7%	12.7%	2.0%	1.1%	4.13	4.08	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	102	453	89	49	4	96%	4.4	14.7%	12.7%	2.0%	1.1%	4.13	4.08	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	102	453	89	49	4	96%	4.4	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	0.9%	4.13	3.31	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	110	484	107	65	4	73%	4.2	16.5%	15.7%	0.8%	1.1%	4.65	4.28	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	110	484	107	65	4	73%	4.2	16.5%	15.7%	0.8%	1.1%	4.65	4.28	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	110	484	107	65	4	73%	4.2	22.1%	13.4%	8.7%	0.8%	4.65	3.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	13	13	75	317	43	53	8	100%	5.8	13.4%	16.6%	-3.2%	2.4%	5.78	5.78	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	100	424	65	63	10	100%	5.9	15.3%	14.8%	0.5%	2.5%	5.50	5.42	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	100	424	70	61	11	100%	5.9	16.4%	14.3%	2.2%	2.5%	5.33	5.27	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	99	418	70	59	11	100%	6.2	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	2.6%	5.27	5.26	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	96	405	68	57	11	100%	6.0	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	2.7%	5.29	5.32	-0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	92	387	64	55	11	100%	6.1	16.5%	14.2%	2.2%	2.8%	5.39	5.45	-0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	86	364	59	53	11	100%	6.2	16.1%	14.5%	1.6%	3.0%	5.53	5.63	-0.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	43	182	28	27	4	100%	6.1	15.3%	14.8%	0.5%	2.5%	5.50	5.42	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	67	283	46	40	7	100%	6.1	16.4%	14.3%	2.2%	2.5%	5.33	5.27	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	76	321	54	45	8	100%	5.8	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	2.6%	5.27	5.26	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	81	342	57	48	9	100%	5.8	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	2.7%	5.29	5.32	-0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	80	338	56	48	10	100%	6.2	16.5%	14.2%	2.2%	2.8%	5.39	5.45	-0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	77	325	52	47	10	100%	5.9	16.1%	14.5%	1.6%	3.0%	5.53	5.63	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	71	424	1792	293	256	49	100%	6.0	16.4%	14.3%	2.1%	2.7%	5.38	5.01	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	138	121	23	100%	6.0	16.4%	14.3%	2.1%	2.7%	5.38	5.01	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		52	41	218	961	151	138	10	79%	4.2	15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	1.1%	4.29	4.16	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	38	200	880	138	126	9	79%	4.2	15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	1.1%	4.29	4.16	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Meckley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	13.4%	16.6%	2.4%	—	5.32	16.2%	1.8%	300	-0.46	—	—	—
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	84
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	84
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	82
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	82
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	81
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	81
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	81
Johnny Hellweg R 2013 · 5.63 FIP	24	SP	5.63	5.6%	16.0%	1.8%	.298	5.82	9.6%	-8.1%	82	+0.19	2.98	140	80
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	80
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	80
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	79
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	78
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	78
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	77
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	77
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	77
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	93	16.0%	14.6%	1.02	5.43
Jack Hamilton ('62-'69, -5 WAR*)	3.1	102	16.8%*	13.3%*	0.90*	5.45*
Tex Shirley ('41-'46, -0 WAR*)	2.2	112	17.0%*	13.5%*	0.99*	4.92*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Dan Reichert ('03)	2.0	99	13.3%	12.4%	0.98	5.55
Victor Zambrano ('07)	3.5	101	16.6%	12.7%	0.99	4.64