Francisco Frias

P Asheville Tourists

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKHOU	13	33	7.44	2.67	29.4%	13.3%	—	K 20.0% · BB 16.6% · FIP 4.00
2025	20	AHOU	32	58	3.09	3.31	24.0%	12.4%	—	K 17.8% · BB 14.6% · FIP 4.31
2026	21	MIX2 levels	36	46	7.19	4.91	26.8%	16.9%	—	K 20.4% · BB 20.5% · FIP 6.17
2027PROJ	22	MLBHOU	43	45	6.06	6.06	18.8%	19.7%	-0.7
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBHOU	26	27	5.71	5.58	20.0%	16.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBHOU	37	39	5.41	5.27	20.8%	15.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsHudson Leach (age 22) · Christian Ruebeck (age 23) · Franklyn German (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.06

FIP6.06

K%18.8%

BB%19.7%

K-BB%-0.9%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	10	0	14	62	19	7	2	0%	1.4	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	4.8%	3.21	5.74	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	10	0	14	62	19	7	2	0%	1.4	30.6%	11.3%	19.4%	3.2%	3.21	3.74	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	13	0	33	143	42	19	1	0%	2.5	20.0%	16.6%	3.4%	0.9%	7.44	4.00	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	13	0	33	143	42	19	1	0%	2.5	20.0%	16.6%	3.4%	0.9%	7.44	4.00	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	13	0	33	143	42	19	1	0%	2.5	29.4%	13.3%	16.1%	0.7%	7.44	2.67	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	32	0	58	250	60	31	3	0%	1.8	17.8%	14.6%	3.1%	1.6%	3.09	4.31	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	32	0	58	250	60	31	3	0%	1.8	17.8%	14.6%	3.1%	1.6%	3.09	4.31	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	32	0	58	250	60	31	3	0%	1.8	24.0%	12.4%	11.6%	1.2%	3.09	3.31	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	46	231	62	39	7	0%	1.3	20.4%	20.5%	-0.1%	4.0%	7.19	6.17	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	46	231	62	39	7	0%	1.3	20.4%	20.5%	-0.1%	4.0%	7.19	6.17	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	46	231	62	39	7	0%	1.3	26.8%	16.9%	10.0%	3.0%	7.19	4.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	HOU	43	0	45	190	36	37	6	0%	1.0	18.8%	19.7%	-0.9%	3.1%	6.06	6.06	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	52	0	54	230	46	39	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	16.9%	3.1%	3.0%	5.71	5.58	-0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	53	0	56	236	49	36	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	3.0%	5.41	5.27	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	26	0	27	114	23	19	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	16.9%	3.1%	3.0%	5.71	5.58	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	37	0	39	165	34	25	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	15.1%	5.7%	3.0%	5.41	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	279	57	44	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	15.8%	4.6%	3.0%	5.53	5.02	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	133	24	0%	1.1	20.4%	15.8%	4.6%	3.0%	5.53	5.02	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		91	0	151	686	133	116	17	0%	1.7	19.4%	17.0%	2.4%	2.5%	5.29	5.00	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	0	200	907	176	154	23	0%	1.7	19.4%	17.0%	2.4%	2.5%	5.29	5.00	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Frias (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.06	18.8%	19.7%	3.1%	—	5.42	20.4%	4.4%	110	-0.64	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	91
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	89
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	89
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	88
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	88
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	87
Danny Dopico R 2016 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	18.3%	22.6%	2.1%	.309	3.19	23.9%	11.2%	189	-2.39	3.00	318	87
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	86
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	86
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	86
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	85
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	85
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	85
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	85
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	85
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	85
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	85
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	85
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	19.9%	17.0%	1.16	5.70
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*