Dylan Watts

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 193 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	17	11	62	4.67	4.85	21.3%	13.1%	—	K 15.9% · BB 15.2% · FIP 6.05
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	8	8	43	5.59	5.59	17.5%	14.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTOR	4	4	24	5.31	5.20	19.2%	12.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTOR	6	6	38	5.08	4.97	20.1%	11.6%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Noah Skirrow (age 23) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%17.5%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%3.2%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	62	267	57	35	9	65%	3.6	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	4.3%	4.67	6.05	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	62	267	57	35	9	65%	3.6	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	4.3%	4.67	6.05	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	62	267	57	35	9	65%	3.6	21.3%	13.1%	8.2%	3.4%	4.67	4.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	8	8	43	182	32	26	6	100%	5.4	17.5%	14.3%	3.2%	3.2%	5.59	5.59	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	57	240	46	30	8	100%	5.7	19.2%	12.6%	6.5%	3.2%	5.31	5.20	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	58	243	49	28	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	11.6%	8.6%	3.1%	5.08	4.97	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	58	243	50	28	8	100%	5.8	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	3.1%	4.96	4.90	0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	57	239	50	27	8	100%	6.3	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.93	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	24	101	19	13	3	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.6%	6.5%	3.2%	5.31	5.20	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	38	160	32	19	5	100%	6.3	20.1%	11.6%	8.6%	3.1%	5.08	4.97	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	46	194	40	22	6	100%	5.8	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	3.1%	4.96	4.90	0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	48	203	42	23	6	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		27	27	156	661	134	77	21	100%	5.8	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	3.2%	5.04	4.59	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	98	27	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	3.2%	5.04	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		17	11	62	267	43	41	12	65%	3.6	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	4.3%	4.67	6.05	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	36	200	866	138	132	37	65%	3.6	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	4.3%	4.67	6.05	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Watts (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	17.5%	14.3%	3.2%	—	5.02	20.0%	8.1%	172	-0.57	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	87
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	83
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	83
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	82
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	81
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	81
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	81
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	81
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	81
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	81
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	81
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	81
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	54	19.7%	12.2%	1.23	5.15
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52