Jorge Lara — OGILVIE

Jorge LaraSS ACL D-backs

Age 20 S/R 5'6" / 145 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION144 act + 96 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .302 / .341

PA96

HR2

K%30

BB%8

BABIP296

ISO129

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.5M
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$12M		$27M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	140	30	6	0	2	13	25	6	18	3	214	308	300	608	86	243	16	8	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	132	39	9	0	3	21	17	6	18	3	295	415	432	847	136	316	11	13	381	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	49	8	1	0	1	6	21	6	4	3	163	328	245	573	82	250	34	10	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	47	11	1	0	1	8	14	6	4	3	234	410	319	729	85	303	23	13	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	165	39	8	2	1	23	32	6	23	3	236	351	327	678	91	284	16	12	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	152	51	10	4	1	36	20	6	23	3	336	479	474	953	138	376	10	18	426	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	ARI	—	144	126	20	3	1	4	10	56	8	5	3	159	264	294	558	135	242	39	7	250	50	-8	-0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
YTD	20	ROK	ARI	—	144	120	31	5	2	6	16	39	8	5	3	258	382	483	865	225	333	27	11	385	153	+9	-0	+0	+2	+4	1.4
ROS	20	ROK	ARI	0%	96	85	18	3	1	2	8	29	3	3	1	212	302	341	643	129	284	30	8	276	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
ROS	20	MLB	ARI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		286	—	—	257	55	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	ARI	—	144	127	20	3	1	4	10	56	8	5	3	157	264	291	555	134	239	39	7	250	50	-8	-0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
TOT	20	ROK	ARI	—	240	211	38	6	2	6	18	85	11	8	4	180	279	313	592	133	267	35	8	260	57	-12	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	ARI	34%	269	238	50	9	2	5	23	78	6	6	2	210	296	328	624	118	287	29	9	285	76	-7	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2028	22	MLB	ARI	48%	378	335	71	13	2	8	32	106	8	9	3	212	296	334	630	122	288	28	8	291	81	-8	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.7
2029	23	MLB	ARI	54%	450	398	87	16	3	10	39	125	10	11	3	219	304	349	653	131	289	28	9	295	84	-8	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.1
2030	24	MLB	ARI	55%	497	440	97	18	3	11	43	136	11	12	4	220	306	350	656	130	290	27	9	298	86	-8	+1	+0	+5	+14	1.3
2031	25	MLB	ARI	56%	523	462	102	19	3	12	45	143	11	13	4	221	305	353	658	132	290	27	9	299	87	-8	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.4
2032	26	MLB	ARI	56%	537	473	105	20	3	12	47	147	12	13	4	222	308	353	661	131	290	27	9	299	87	-8	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.4
2033	27	MLB	ARI	55%	541	476	105	20	3	12	48	148	12	13	4	221	308	351	659	130	290	27	9	299	87	-8	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.5
2034	28	MLB	ARI	55%	539	474	104	19	3	12	48	148	12	13	4	219	307	348	655	129	290	27	9	298	86	-8	+1	-1	+6	+15	1.3
2035	29	MLB	ARI	53%	531	468	102	19	3	12	47	147	11	12	4	218	304	348	652	130	289	28	9	297	85	-9	+1	-1	+6	+15	1.1
2036	30	MLB	ARI	57%	522	459	99	18	3	11	47	146	11	12	4	216	304	340	644	124	288	28	9	294	83	-10	+1	-2	+6	+15	0.9
2037	31	MLB	ARI	60%	508	447	97	18	3	11	45	144	11	11	3	217	304	345	649	128	286	28	9	290	80	-11	+1	-3	+5	+14	0.7
2027	21	MLB	ARI	34%	92	82	18	3	1	2	8	27	2	2	1	220	304	354	658	134	289	29	9	271	65	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	ARI	48%	183	161	36	7	1	4	16	52	4	4	1	224	309	354	663	130	291	28	9	277	70	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2029	23	MLB	ARI	54%	244	216	48	9	2	5	21	68	5	6	2	222	306	352	658	130	292	28	9	282	74	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2030	24	MLB	ARI	55%	275	243	54	10	2	6	24	75	6	7	2	222	308	354	662	132	293	27	9	284	76	-7	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2031	25	MLB	ARI	56%	293	260	58	11	2	7	25	80	6	7	2	223	306	362	667	138	293	27	9	285	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2032	26	MLB	ARI	56%	302	267	59	11	2	7	26	83	6	7	2	221	304	356	660	135	292	27	9	286	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.5
2033	27	MLB	ARI	55%	299	265	59	11	2	7	26	82	6	7	2	223	306	358	665	136	292	27	9	286	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.5
2034	28	MLB	ARI	55%	295	261	58	11	2	7	26	81	6	7	2	222	307	360	667	138	292	27	9	285	76	-8	+1	-0	+3	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB	ARI	53%	284	251	55	10	2	6	25	79	6	7	2	219	305	347	652	127	292	28	9	283	75	-8	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.3
2036	30	MLB	ARI	57%	298	263	58	11	2	7	27	83	6	7	2	221	307	357	665	137	291	28	9	281	73	-9	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.2
2037	31	MLB	ARI	60%	303	267	58	11	2	6	27	86	6	6	2	217	303	341	644	124	289	28	9	277	70	-10	+0	-2	+3	+9	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2868	2537	561	105	20	64	251	796	59	67	20	221	306	354	660	133	294	28	9	282	74	-83	+5	-4	+31	+81	3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	128	24	5	15	57	180	13	15	5	223	307	360	667	137	295	28	9	282	74	-19	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	5810	5109	1114	207	34	122	514	1575	136	173	49	218	306	344	650	125	288	27	9	294	83	-109	+15	-7	+62	+165	12.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	125	23	4	14	58	176	15	19	5	219	307	346	654	128	288	27	9	294	83	-12	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	132	39	9	0	3	21	17	6	18	3	295	415	432	847	136	316	11	13	381	149	+9	+2	—	—	+5	1.6
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	47	11	1	0	1	8	14	6	4	3	234	410	319	729	85	303	23	13	347	124	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	152	51	10	4	1	36	20	6	23	3	336	479	474	953	138	376	10	18	426	184	+19	+3	—	—	+6	2.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,053	66	72	220	302	349	+33	+21	6.8	5.9
	/162	664	14	16	220	302	349	+7.1	+4.6	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jorge Lara (OGILVIE)	20	60	30	60	60	180/279/313	133	267	6	8	35%	8%	57	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→54	37→40	56→65	55	219/317/294	75	290	3	19	23%	11%	77	+0.1	188/270/271	83	290	6	10	34%	10%	50	-1.7	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→53	39→40	54→50	56	239/327/329	91	293	6	14	19%	11%	89	+1.0	243/317/334	91	314	8	14	23%	8%	86	+0.8	243/318/331	88	313	8	14	23%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	51→55	40→45	53→55	43	245/292/346	101	303	7	14	21%	5%	78	+0.2	237/292/339	102	303	8	14	23%	6%	76	+0.1	255/306/365	110	315	10	22	21%	6%	86	+0.6
✕Cole Miles 2007 · A	20	49→51	37→30	57→55	51	228/306/304	77	292	4	19	22%	9%	74	-0.1	235/283/294	59	292	3	15	19%	6%	59	-1.1	236/280/289	53	293	3	15	19%	5%	53	-1.1
●Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	45→54	40→45	53→50	52	214/297/310	95	272	8	10	23%	10%	72	-0.2	225/295/354	129	272	12	8	21%	8%	82	+0.5	238/307/358	119	303	12	6	24%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Francisco Aponte 2011 · A	20	51	34→30	52→60	53	234/311/288	54	289	2	20	18%	9%	72	-0.2	217/282/279	62	272	2	15	19%	8%	56	-1.3	200/241/256	56	246	0	10	18%	5%	30	-1.1
✕Miguel Chacoa 2008 · A	19	51	38→30	52→50	47	238/298/316	77	309	5	17	24%	7%	72	-0.2	235/296/294	59	278	3	14	15%	7%	66	-0.6	241/304/284	43	277	1	17	12%	7%	63	-0.3
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	48	36→30	54→55	51	223/302/295	72	308	3	17	26%	10%	69	-0.4	217/280/273	56	305	2	15	27%	8%	53	-1.5	241/290/282	41	339	1	17	27%	6%	55	-0.5
✕Shawn Zarraga 2009 · A	20	48	40	51→45	49	226/308/322	96	306	7	7	26%	9%	79	+0.3	223/295/301	78	305	5	6	26%	7%	69	-0.4	277/347/362	84	322	4	2	14%	8%	106	+0.8
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	196/264/288	92	278	8	16	31%	8%	52	-1.6	236/297/340	104	317	6	24	26%	7%	79	+0.3	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	46→50	41→40	56→60	46	222/287/330	108	287	6	20	24%	7%	72	-0.2	217/282/308	91	288	7	26	25%	7%	65	-0.7	206/276/294	89	271	8	32	26%	7%	55	-0.9
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	56→60	50	245/307/319	74	309	3	18	21%	8%	77	+0.1	246/292/306	60	294	1	19	16%	6%	66	-0.6	304/363/386	81	348	4	36	13%	8%	114	+2.3
✕Yonny Hernández 2018 · A	20	46→56	34→30	54→60	54	211/290/266	56	248	1	20	15%	9%	57	-1.2	233/312/289	56	299	1	25	20%	9%	72	-0.2	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
●Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	50→56	39→50	48→50	52	238/315/322	84	301	6	12	22%	10%	82	+0.5	207/268/292	85	295	5	10	29%	7%	54	-1.4	235/313/371	135	309	14	10	27%	10%	91	+0.9
✕Eury Pérez 2010 · A	20	53→63	39→40	54→65	46	252/311/333	82	307	6	19	19%	6%	82	+0.5	266/299/328	62	330	3	34	19%	4%	75	-0.0	296/331/390	95	359	3	37	18%	4%	102	+0.6
✕Brayan Rocchio 2021 · A	20	48→55	38→45	48→50	43	226/277/308	82	281	5	13	21%	5%	62	-0.9	225/284/354	129	286	12	14	25%	6%	77	+0.1	229/300/349	120	276	11	15	20%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→54	37→40	56→55	45	223/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	66	-0.6	200/260/251	51	275	1	18	26%	7%	40	-2.4	236/301/308	72	311	3	11	23%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Rodrigo Orozco 2015 · A	20	46→56	38→40	49→50	51	218/288/296	78	263	4	14	18%	8%	63	-0.8	229/285/313	84	288	5	9	21%	7%	66	-0.6	248/302/327	79	313	3	11	20%	7%	72	-0.1
✕James Triantos 2023 · A	20	49→56	43→45	52→60	41	238/280/347	109	301	10	12	24%	5%	72	-0.2	245/290/342	97	292	8	24	18%	5%	76	+0.0	263/301/369	107	303	9	35	16%	4%	85	+0.5
●Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2010 · A	20	50→59	37→45	53→55	46	233/275/308	75	273	3	13	16%	5%	60	-1.0	254/282/362	108	299	10	17	18%	3%	78	+0.2	270/301/382	112	304	12	11	15%	4%	91	+0.7