Jorge Lara — OGILVIE

Jorge LaraSS ACL D-backs

Age 20 S/R 5'6" / 145 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION144 act + 14 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.154 / .214 / .154

PA14

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP290

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$36M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	132	39	9	0	3	21	17	6	18	3	295	415	432	847	136	316	11	13	381	144	+8	+2	—	—	+3	1.5
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	47	11	1	0	1	8	14	6	4	3	234	410	319	729	85	303	23	13	347	121	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	152	51	10	4	1	36	20	6	23	3	336	479	474	953	138	376	10	18	426	174	+17	+3	—	—	+4	2.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	140	30	6	0	2	13	25	6	18	3	214	308	300	608	86	237	16	8	275	72	-5	+2	—	—	+3	0.1
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	50	9	1	0	1	5	21	6	4	3	180	328	260	588	80	233	34	8	245	52	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	165	41	8	3	1	23	31	6	23	3	248	361	352	712	103	283	16	12	308	95	-1	+3	—	—	+4	0.7
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	140	30	6	0	2	13	25	6	18	3	214	308	300	608	86	243	16	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	132	39	9	0	3	21	17	6	18	3	295	415	432	847	136	316	11	13	381	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	50	9	1	0	1	5	21	6	4	3	180	328	260	588	80	276	34	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	47	11	1	0	1	8	14	6	4	3	234	410	319	729	85	303	23	13	347	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	165	41	8	3	1	23	31	6	23	3	248	361	352	712	103	296	16	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	152	51	10	4	1	36	20	6	23	3	336	479	474	953	138	376	10	18	426	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	141	30	6	0	2	13	25	6	18	3	213	308	298	606	85	237	16	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	51	9	1	0	1	5	21	6	4	3	176	328	255	583	78	233	34	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	165	41	8	3	1	23	31	6	23	3	248	361	352	712	103	283	16	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	141	30	6	0	2	13	25	6	18	3	213	308	298	606	85	237	16	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	51	9	1	0	1	5	21	6	4	3	176	328	255	583	78	233	34	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	165	41	8	3	1	23	31	6	23	3	248	361	352	712	103	283	16	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ARI	—	144	126	20	3	1	4	10	56	8	5	3	159	264	294	558	135	242	39	7	250	55	-8	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	ARI	—	144	120	31	5	2	6	16	39	8	5	3	258	382	483	865	225	333	27	11	385	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	ARI	0%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		284	29	7	276	73	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	20	ROK MLE	ARI	—	158	139	22	3	1	4	11	60	8	5	3	158	259	281	540	122	240	38	7	252	57	-8	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	43%	243	215	46	8	2	5	20	70	6	5	2	214	299	340	638	126	287	29	8	286	79	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	61%	359	318	69	13	2	8	30	100	8	8	3	217	301	346	646	129	288	28	8	292	84	-7	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	68%	436	387	86	16	3	10	37	120	9	10	3	222	305	357	661	134	289	28	8	296	86	-7	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	70%	488	433	96	18	3	11	42	133	10	12	4	222	305	353	659	132	290	27	9	298	88	-7	+1	+0	+5	+11	1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	70%	517	457	101	19	3	12	44	140	11	13	4	221	305	354	659	133	290	27	9	299	89	-7	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	71%	533	471	103	19	3	12	46	144	11	13	4	219	303	348	651	130	290	27	9	300	89	-7	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	69%	539	475	105	20	3	12	47	146	12	13	4	221	307	352	659	131	290	27	9	300	89	-7	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	69%	538	473	104	19	3	12	48	147	12	13	4	220	308	349	657	129	289	27	9	299	88	-7	+1	-1	+6	+12	1.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	67%	530	467	103	19	3	12	47	146	11	12	4	221	307	351	658	131	289	28	9	297	87	-8	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	72%	521	459	99	18	3	11	46	145	11	12	4	216	302	340	642	124	288	28	9	295	86	-9	+1	-2	+6	+11	0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	ARI	75%	508	447	97	18	3	11	45	143	11	11	3	217	304	345	649	128	286	28	9	291	83	-10	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	ARI	77%	490	434	91	16	3	10	43	139	10	10	3	210	296	329	625	120	283	28	9	286	80	-12	+1	-4	+5	+11	0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	ARI	79%	461	408	85	15	3	9	41	134	9	9	3	208	295	326	621	118	280	29	9	279	75	-14	+1	-4	+5	+10	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	ARI	43%	105	93	20	4	1	2	9	30	2	2	1	215	298	344	642	129	294	29	9	272	79	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	61%	218	193	42	8	2	4	18	61	5	5	2	218	301	342	643	124	295	28	8	279	84	-4	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	68%	297	264	58	11	2	6	25	81	6	7	2	220	302	345	646	125	295	27	8	283	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	70%	340	301	68	13	3	7	29	92	7	8	3	226	309	359	667	133	296	27	9	285	88	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	70%	363	321	73	14	3	8	31	98	8	9	3	227	311	364	676	137	296	27	9	286	89	-5	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	71%	376	333	75	15	3	8	32	102	8	9	3	225	308	360	669	135	296	27	9	287	89	-5	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	69%	374	330	74	14	3	8	33	102	8	9	3	224	310	358	668	133	296	27	9	287	89	-5	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	69%	370	326	73	14	3	8	33	101	8	9	3	224	311	359	670	135	296	27	9	286	88	-5	+1	-0	+4	+8	0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	67%	354	312	71	14	3	8	31	97	8	8	2	228	313	369	682	141	295	27	9	284	87	-5	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	72%	373	329	73	14	3	8	33	104	8	8	3	222	308	356	664	134	294	28	9	282	86	-6	+0	-2	+4	+8	0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	ARI	75%	380	335	74	14	3	8	34	107	8	8	2	221	308	352	660	131	292	28	9	278	83	-8	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	ARI	77%	378	334	71	14	2	7	33	108	8	8	2	213	299	329	628	117	289	29	9	273	80	-9	+1	-3	+4	+8	0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	ARI	79%	363	321	66	12	2	6	32	105	7	7	2	206	292	312	603	106	285	29	9	267	75	-11	+1	-3	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4291	3792	838	161	33	88	373	1188	91	97	31	221	306	350	656	129	295	28	9	281	85	-76	+7	-11	+46	+93	6.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	126	24	5	13	57	180	14	15	5	220	305	347	652	127	294	28	9	281	85	-11	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6596	5812	1267	233	40	139	578	1788	149	186	54	218	305	344	649	126	288	27	9	294	85	-109	+10	-15	+66	+134	8.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	125	23	4	14	57	176	15	18	5	218	306	346	651	127	287	27	9	294	85	-11	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	8.5	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
/162	664	18	5	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.7	4,457	96	102	219	301	346	+48	+30	9.6	8.1
/162	664	14	15	+7.1	+4.5	1.4	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jorge Lara (OGILVIE)	20	60	30	60	60	202/290/308	106	284	3	4	30%	8%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	50→52	39→40	54→50	56	234/323/325	91	290	6	14	20%	11%	88	+0.4	239/315/327	88	307	7	14	23%	8%	86	+0.3	239/316/323	84	307	7	14	23%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→54	37→40	56→65	54	218/314/294	76	289	3	19	23%	10%	78	-0.3	190/273/272	82	291	5	10	33%	10%	57	-1.8	241/356/333	92	321	9	44	24%	14%	102	+1.0
✕Shawn Zarraga 2009 · A	20	48	40	51→45	49	226/308/322	96	306	7	7	26%	9%	82	-0.0	222/294/296	74	305	5	6	26%	7%	71	-0.8	277/346/357	80	319	4	2	13%	7%	103	+0.5
✕Cole Miles 2007 · A	20	49→51	37→30	57→55	51	228/306/304	77	292	4	19	22%	9%	77	-0.3	235/283/294	59	292	3	15	19%	6%	64	-1.3	236/280/289	53	293	3	15	19%	5%	59	-1.2
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	51→55	40→45	53→55	43	244/293/346	101	299	6	14	20%	5%	80	-0.1	238/292/336	98	305	7	14	23%	6%	78	-0.3	255/308/363	108	313	9	21	21%	6%	87	+0.3
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	56→60	50	245/307/319	74	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	250/296/311	61	297	1	19	15%	6%	73	-0.6	302/361/382	79	347	4	36	13%	8%	110	+1.8
✕Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	50→56	39→45	48→50	52	238/315/322	84	301	6	12	22%	10%	84	+0.1	211/274/296	85	298	5	10	29%	8%	62	-1.4	228/307/343	115	304	11	10	27%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Miguel Chacoa 2008 · A	19	51	38→30	52→50	47	238/298/316	77	309	5	17	24%	7%	76	-0.4	235/296/294	59	278	3	14	15%	7%	70	-0.8	241/304/284	43	277	1	17	12%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Francisco Aponte 2011 · A	20	51	34→30	52→60	53	234/311/288	54	289	2	20	18%	9%	75	-0.5	218/283/281	63	275	2	15	19%	8%	62	-1.4	205/243/263	58	255	0	10	19%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→55	37→40	56→55	45	223/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	203/262/257	54	276	1	18	25%	7%	49	-2.4	246/309/315	68	310	3	11	20%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	44→53	40→45	53→50	51	212/293/307	95	270	8	10	23%	10%	73	-0.6	225/299/349	124	276	11	8	21%	9%	84	+0.2	220/327/339	119	312	10	7	29%	13%	91	+0.5
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	45→55	40→45	57→55	45	213/279/311	99	296	6	21	29%	8%	68	-1.0	250/308/354	104	323	7	26	23%	7%	88	+0.4	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	48	36→30	54→55	51	223/302/295	72	308	3	17	26%	10%	73	-0.6	217/280/273	56	305	2	15	27%	8%	59	-1.7	238/288/280	42	332	1	17	27%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Adrian Cardenas 2008 · A	20	51→59	41→40	50	44	246/290/344	98	299	8	12	20%	6%	79	-0.2	259/306/352	93	311	6	10	18%	6%	86	+0.3	272/321/361	89	314	4	8	14%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Osleivis Basabe 2022 · A	21	51→61	38→45	56→50	44	244/287/329	85	299	5	15	20%	6%	74	-0.5	259/304/360	101	314	5	15	18%	5%	88	+0.4	261/307/362	101	315	5	15	18%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	50	38→40	52→50	45	231/304/321	90	315	3	12	26%	7%	80	-0.2	213/282/287	74	343	3	10	36%	7%	64	-1.3	171/249/199	28	339	0	12	45%	7%	30	-0.7
✕Eury Pérez 2010 · A	20	53→63	39→40	54→65	46	252/311/333	82	307	6	19	19%	6%	84	+0.2	265/298/326	61	328	3	34	19%	4%	77	-0.3	292/329/379	87	355	3	37	18%	4%	98	+0.4
✕Juan Benjamin 2023 · A	20	46→50	41→40	50→55	48	218/295/326	108	304	7	10	29%	9%	78	-0.3	218/277/292	74	311	4	17	29%	7%	62	-1.4	215/274/281	66	303	4	20	28%	7%	57	-1.2
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2011 · A	20	53→57	36→40	54→55	45	246/295/312	67	314	2	17	22%	6%	73	-0.6	248/301/338	90	321	4	24	22%	7%	81	-0.1	233/289/317	84	304	4	25	23%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Euribiel Angeles 2022 · A	20	55→59	38→40	51→50	44	257/307/346	88	327	5	13	22%	6%	85	+0.2	236/268/318	82	290	5	13	20%	4%	64	-1.3	233/273/314	81	269	6	15	16%	4%	62	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps