Jorge Lara

SS ACL D-backs
Age 21 S/R 5'6" / 145 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1076ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKDSL Arizona R…62.234/.410/.3191442—.143/.311/.163
202519ROKDSL Arizona R…196.336/.479/.47412375—.202/.330/.270
202620ROKARI144.258/.382/.4836553—.159/.264/.294
2027PROJMLE21MLBARI254.213/.291/.31336730.1
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBARI42.224/.301/.33711770.0
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBARI98.227/.304/.34622800.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
ISO89
Speed75
wRC+70
wOBA57
Z-Con%28
Whiff%27
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%
CompsDiego Velasquez (age 20) · Nacho Alvarez Jr. (age 21) · Nick Morabito (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 74 proj PA
wRC+†73
AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .289 / .310
PA74
HR1
K%28
BB%8
ISO100
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.40.40.30.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT60
scouting grade only
POWER30
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.5M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.3$0.7M+$0.2M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M
2036Arb-1$0.6M———
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Arizona Black — 161132 39903 21176 183 295415432847 136316 1113 381 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Arizona Red — 6247 11101 8146 43 234410319729 85303 2313 347 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL Arizona Red — 196152 511041 36206 233 336479474953 138376 1018 426 75 — — — — — —
202620 ROKACL D-backs — 144120 31526 16398 53 258382483865 225333 2711 385 53 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Black — 161138 25501 15216 183 181289239528 58196 139 246 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Red — 6249 7100 6176 43 143311163475 20191 2710 231 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Red — 196163 33720 25266 233 202330270600 67231 1313 279 75 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 144126 20314 10568 53 159264294558 135243 397 247 53 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Black — 161138 25501 15216 183 181289239528 58203 139 246 53 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Arizona Black — 161132 39903 21176 183 295415432847 136316 1113 381 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Red — 6249 7100 6176 43 143311163475 20212 2710 231 42 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Arizona Red — 6247 11101 8146 43 234410319729 85303 2313 347 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Red — 196163 33720 25266 233 202330270600 67237 1313 279 75 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWDSL Arizona Red — 196152 511041 36206 233 336479474953 138376 1018 426 75 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 144126 20314 10568 53 159264294558 135242 397 247 53 — — — — — —
202620 ROK RAWACL D-backs — 144120 31526 16398 53 258382483865 225333 2711 385 53 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Black — 161139 25501 15216 183 180289237527 58196 139 246 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Red — 6250 7100 6176 43 140311160471 20191 2710 231 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Red — 196163 33720 25266 233 202330270600 67231 1313 279 75 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 144125 20314 10568 53 160264296560 136243 397 247 53 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Red — 6250 7100 6176 43 140311160471 20191 2710 231 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Arizona Red — 196163 33720 25266 233 202330270600 67231 1313 279 75 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 144125 20314 10568 53 160264296560 136243 397 247 53 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEARI 0% 254227 48823 20725 61 213291313604 100293 288 275 73 -8 +1 +0 +3 +6 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEARI 34% 123110 24412 10342 31 217295324619 107294 288 281 77 -3 +0 +0 +1 +3 0.1
202923 MLB MLEARI 48% 203180 40723 17564 51 220298333631 113294 288 286 80 -5 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.2
203024 MLB MLEARI 53% 287256 571025 24785 72 222300340640 117295 278 290 82 -6 +1 +0 +3 +6 0.4
203125 MLB MLEARI 55% 346309 701237 28936 82 224301345646 121295 278 292 84 -7 +1 +0 +4 +7 0.5
203226 MLB MLEARI 56% 380340 761337 311016 92 225302348650 123295 278 293 85 -7 +1 +0 +4 +8 0.7
203327 MLB MLEARI 55% 396354 801438 331066 92 224301345647 121294 278 292 84 -8 +1 +0 +4 +9 0.6
203428 MLB MLEARI 55% 399357 791437 331086 92 222300341640 118294 278 290 82 -8 +1 -1 +4 +9 0.5
203529 MLB MLEARI 58% 393352 771337 321076 82 220297335632 115292 278 286 80 -9 +1 -1 +4 +9 0.3
203630 MLB MLEARI 60% 385345 761337 311066 72 217294328621 110291 288 282 77 -11 +1 -2 +4 +8 0.0
202822 MLB CTXARI 34% 4238 9201 3121 10 224301337638 113304 297 289 77 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.0
202923 MLB CTXARI 48% 9888 21412 8272 21 227304346649 119305 288 293 80 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
203024 MLB CTXARI 53% 151135 31613 12413 41 229306352658 123306 278 297 82 -3 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.2
203125 MLB CTXARI 55% 189168 38723 16513 51 231307357664 126306 278 299 84 -4 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.3
203226 MLB CTXARI 56% 212189 43824 18563 51 232308360668 128305 268 300 85 -4 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.4
203327 MLB CTXARI 55% 218194 45924 18584 51 231307357664 127305 278 299 84 -4 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.4
203428 MLB CTXARI 55% 218195 45924 18593 51 229305353658 124304 278 297 82 -5 +1 -0 +2 +5 0.3
203529 MLB CTXARI 58% 228203 46924 19624 51 227303347649 120303 278 293 80 -5 +1 -1 +2 +5 0.2
203630 MLB CTXARI 60% 232207 47924 19644 41 224299339639 115301 288 289 77 -6 +0 -1 +2 +5 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 15881417 325631429 13143027 368 229307355662 126307 278 296 78 -35 +4 -2 +17 +34 1.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 13426612 5417611 153 231309359667 128309 278 296 78 -14 +2 -1 +7 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 35493146 6781182759 30193074 11728 216299326626 111284 268 283 78 -67 +7 -4 +32 +65 3.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 12522511 5517014 215 217301330631 113286 268 283 78 -14 +2 -1 +7 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL D-backs · 144 PAwOBA .375 → .247 (−128)K% 27.1% → 39.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.08%÷1.000×1.440——39.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9856.79%
HBP% /PA5.56%—×0.720—×0.9853.94%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷1.000×0.820×0.950×0.98517.05%
Doubles /BIP6.17%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×0.9854.16%
Triples /BIP2.47%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×0.9851.66%
Home runs /BIP7.41%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9855.69%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .375 → .247; ISO .225 → .148; BABIP .333 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Arizona Red · 196 PAwOBA .421 → .279 (−142)K% 10.2% → 13.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.20%÷0.944×1.220——13.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.37%÷0.986×0.700—×0.98512.85%
HBP% /PA3.06%—×0.700—×0.9852.11%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷1.013×0.680×0.956×0.98517.24%
Doubles /BIP7.58%÷0.922×0.600×0.956×0.9854.64%
Triples /BIP3.03%÷1.134×0.600×0.956×0.9851.51%
Home runs /BIP0.76%÷1.121×0.470—×0.9850.31%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.

Result: wOBA .421 → .279; ISO .138 → .080; BABIP .376 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Arizona Red · 62 PAwOBA .345 → .231 (−113)K% 22.6% → 28.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.58%÷0.977×1.220——28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.90%÷0.929×0.700—×0.9959.68%
HBP% /PA9.68%—×0.700—×0.9956.74%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷1.044×0.680—×0.99517.67%
Doubles /BIP3.03%÷1.009×0.600—×0.9951.79%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.600—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP3.03%÷1.165×0.470—×0.9951.22%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 109, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 95, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .345 → .231; ISO .085 → .040; BABIP .303 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Arizona Black · 161 PAwOBA .376 → .246 (−130)K% 10.6% → 13.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.56%÷0.994×1.220——12.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.04%÷0.989×0.700—×1.0089.30%
HBP% /PA3.73%—×0.700—×1.0082.63%
Singles /BIP23.48%÷1.004×0.680×0.968×1.00815.51%
Doubles /BIP7.83%÷1.084×0.600×0.968×1.0084.22%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.992×0.600×0.968×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP2.61%÷1.039×0.470—×1.0081.19%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 117, 3B 98, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .376 → .246; ISO .136 → .071; BABIP .316 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).