Reivaj Garcia
SS Naranjeros de Hermosillo| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAA/AA/A+/INTL3 orgs | 561 | .289/.318/.373 | 2 | 6 | 75 | — | .254/.268/.307 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 458 | .264/.318/.320 | 0 | 14 | 63 | — | .245/.285/.296 |
| 2026 | 24 | INTLNaranjeros de… | 36 | .355/.412/.419 | 0 | 2 | 127 | — | |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBCHC | 380 | .225/.260/.277 | 0 | 7 | 50 | -0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBCHC | 72 | .230/.267/.300 | 0 | 1 | 57 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBCHC | 113 | .230/.269/.303 | 1 | 2 | 59 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 16 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 191 | 172 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 302 | 362 | 355 | 716 | 52 | 382 | 19 | 8 | 323 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 91 | 85 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 281 | 306 | 587 | 59 | 280 | 11 | 2 | 261 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 49 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 163 | 167 | 330 | 21 | 219 | 33 | 2 | 151 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 29 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 207 | 250 | 457 | 71 | 238 | 24 | 3 | 206 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 37 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 297 | 242 | 540 | 30 | 368 | 38 | 11 | 257 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 38 | 35 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 314 | 351 | 429 | 780 | 114 | 417 | 26 | 5 | 340 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 29 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 385 | 670 | 154 | 278 | 24 | 0 | 292 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 35 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 400 | 753 | 133 | 269 | 11 | 11 | 331 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 415 | 366 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 71 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 306 | 377 | 404 | 782 | 98 | 366 | 17 | 10 | 348 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 28 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 346 | 393 | 500 | 893 | 154 | 533 | 36 | 7 | 396 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 63 | 56 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 254 | 268 | 522 | 54 | 235 | 11 | 5 | 224 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 279 | 268 | 76 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 284 | 299 | 336 | 635 | 52 | 319 | 12 | 2 | 280 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 191 | 176 | 55 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 312 | 353 | 443 | 796 | 131 | 380 | 17 | 6 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 266 | 241 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 270 | 328 | 328 | 656 | 58 | 328 | 17 | 7 | 296 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 133 | 122 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 230 | 282 | 270 | 553 | 41 | 269 | 14 | 6 | 252 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 59 | 53 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 321 | 357 | 396 | 753 | 75 | 436 | 24 | 5 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 36 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 355 | 412 | 419 | 831 | 65 | 393 | 8 | 8 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 16 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 191 | 177 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 243 | 287 | 282 | 570 | 40 | 331 | 27 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 91 | 86 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 198 | 225 | 244 | 469 | 47 | 228 | 15 | 1 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 49 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 143 | 146 | 289 | 21 | 219 | 41 | 2 | 128 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 29 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 172 | 179 | 351 | 36 | 213 | 31 | 3 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 37 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 216 | 176 | 393 | 29 | 347 | 54 | 8 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 38 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 270 | 361 | 631 | 111 | 334 | 39 | 3 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 35 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 344 | 608 | 125 | 214 | 17 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 415 | 378 | 99 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 95 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 262 | 316 | 336 | 652 | 74 | 334 | 23 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 28 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 357 | 481 | 839 | 148 | 508 | 43 | 4 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 63 | 57 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 237 | 263 | 500 | 53 | 228 | 14 | 3 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 279 | 270 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 256 | 266 | 300 | 566 | 44 | 290 | 15 | 1 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 266 | 247 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 263 | 305 | 324 | 629 | 61 | 322 | 21 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 133 | 125 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 208 | 244 | 240 | 484 | 32 | 246 | 17 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 16 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 191 | 177 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 243 | 287 | 282 | 570 | 40 | 344 | 27 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 16 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 191 | 172 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 302 | 362 | 355 | 716 | 52 | 382 | 19 | 8 | 323 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 91 | 86 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 198 | 225 | 244 | 469 | 47 | 236 | 15 | 1 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 91 | 85 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 281 | 306 | 587 | 59 | 280 | 11 | 2 | 261 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | AA MLE | 5 teams | — | 182 | 171 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 75 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 199 | 399 | 41 | 274 | 41 | 4 | 172 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | AA RAW | 5 teams | — | 182 | 170 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 212 | 256 | 282 | 538 | 71 | 298 | 30 | 4 | 243 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 35 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 344 | 608 | 125 | 231 | 17 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 35 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 400 | 753 | 133 | 269 | 11 | 11 | 331 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 415 | 378 | 99 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 95 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 262 | 316 | 336 | 652 | 74 | 338 | 23 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 415 | 366 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 71 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 306 | 377 | 404 | 782 | 98 | 366 | 17 | 10 | 348 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 561 | 537 | 135 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 97 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 251 | 266 | 302 | 568 | 50 | 301 | 17 | 2 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 561 | 526 | 152 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 22 | 84 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 289 | 318 | 373 | 690 | 84 | 336 | 15 | 4 | 302 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 458 | 425 | 103 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 242 | 283 | 292 | 575 | 49 | 305 | 20 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 458 | 416 | 110 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 78 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 264 | 318 | 320 | 638 | 55 | 323 | 17 | 7 | 287 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | INTL MLE | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 36 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 355 | 412 | 419 | 831 | 65 | 393 | 8 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | INTL RAW | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 36 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 355 | 412 | 419 | 831 | 65 | 393 | 8 | 8 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 16 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 191 | 178 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 242 | 287 | 281 | 568 | 39 | 331 | 27 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs 2 | — | 91 | 88 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 193 | 225 | 239 | 463 | 45 | 228 | 15 | 1 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | AA MLE | 5 teams | — | 182 | 171 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 75 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 199 | 399 | 41 | 277 | 41 | 4 | 172 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 35 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 265 | 333 | 598 | 121 | 214 | 17 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 415 | 382 | 99 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 95 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 259 | 316 | 332 | 649 | 73 | 334 | 23 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 561 | 545 | 135 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 97 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 248 | 266 | 297 | 564 | 50 | 296 | 17 | 2 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 458 | 431 | 103 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 239 | 283 | 288 | 571 | 49 | 297 | 20 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 561 | 545 | 135 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 97 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 248 | 266 | 297 | 564 | 50 | 296 | 17 | 2 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 458 | 431 | 103 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 239 | 283 | 288 | 571 | 49 | 297 | 20 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 380 | 360 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 81 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 225 | 260 | 277 | 537 | 53 | 286 | 21 | 4 | 243 | 50 | -22 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 241 | 228 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 265 | 296 | 561 | 67 | 287 | 22 | 4 | 253 | 57 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 42% | 272 | 257 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 267 | 299 | 566 | 71 | 286 | 22 | 4 | 255 | 59 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | CHC | 48% | 290 | 272 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 63 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 268 | 300 | 568 | 72 | 286 | 22 | 5 | 256 | 59 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 72 | 69 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 267 | 300 | 567 | 69 | 289 | 21 | 4 | 255 | 57 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 42% | 113 | 106 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 269 | 303 | 572 | 72 | 289 | 21 | 4 | 257 | 59 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | CHC | 48% | 138 | 130 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 270 | 304 | 574 | 74 | 289 | 22 | 4 | 258 | 59 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 323 | 305 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 69 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 268 | 302 | 570 | 72 | 288 | 21 | 4 | 257 | 53 | -16 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +7 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 614 | 141 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 139 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 230 | 268 | 301 | 569 | 72 | 288 | 21 | 4 | 257 | 53 | -32 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2982 | 2793 | 658 | 109 | 11 | 10 | 128 | 651 | 14 | 73 | 23 | 236 | 273 | 293 | 566 | 58 | 301 | 22 | 4 | 247 | 53 | -52 | +2 | -1 | +11 | +22 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 609 | 143 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 142 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 235 | 272 | 291 | 563 | 56 | 301 | 22 | 4 | 247 | 53 | -33 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 266 PAwOBA .289 → .271 (−19)K% 16.9% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.92% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.77% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.04% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 26.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .289 → .271; ISO .058 → .057; BABIP .328 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 133 PAwOBA .248 → .216 (−31)K% 14.3% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.051 | ×1.270 | — | — | 17.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.02% | ÷1.042 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.33% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×1.047 | ×0.988 | 20.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.047 | ×0.988 | 4.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.047 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .248 → .216; ISO .041 → .035; BABIP .269 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 279 PAwOBA .277 → .244 (−33)K% 12.2% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.19% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 15.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.15% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 1.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.35% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 25.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.27% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 3.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .277 → .244; ISO .052 → .042; BABIP .319 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATennessee Smokies · 63 PAwOBA .225 → .220 (−5)K% 11.1% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.37% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 17.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.854 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .225 → .220; ISO .054 → .053; BABIP .235 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 28 PAwOBA .374 → .320 (−54)K% 35.7% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷0.949 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 2.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 43.75% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 43.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .374 → .320; ISO .154 → .108; BABIP .533 → .508. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 415 PAwOBA .344 → .294 (−50)K% 17.1% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.11% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.88% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.81% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 26.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.12% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .344 → .294; ISO .098 → .084; BABIP .366 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Cubs · 35 PAwOBA .332 → .253 (−79)K% 11.4% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.43% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.083 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 6.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 18.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.970 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 3.07% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 111, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .332 → .253; ISO .133 → .108; BABIP .269 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AATennessee Smokies · 49 PAwOBA .147 → .128 (−19)K% 32.7% → 40.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.65% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.04% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 1.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.970 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 19.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.015 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 2.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .147 → .128; ISO .021 → .017; BABIP .219 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .