Styven Paez — OGILVIE

Styven Paez P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%22.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	11	5	32	145	30	16	2	45%	2.9	14.1%	13.8%	0.3%	2.4%	5.34	4.96	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	11	5	32	145	30	16	2	45%	2.9	14.1%	13.8%	0.3%	2.4%	5.34	4.96	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	11	5	32	145	30	16	2	45%	2.9	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	1.4%	5.34	3.54	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	5	0	7	29	5	3	0	0%	1.3	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	2.95	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	5	0	7	29	5	3	0	0%	1.3	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	2.95	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	5	0	7	29	5	3	0	0%	1.3	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	2.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	32	0	41	196	43	26	2	0%	1.3	16.2%	15.7%	0.6%	1.3%	5.49	4.44	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	32	0	41	196	43	26	2	0%	1.3	16.2%	15.7%	0.6%	1.3%	5.49	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	ATL	32	0	41	196	43	26	2	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.3%	8.7%	1.0%	5.49	3.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ATL	40	0	42	178	42	17	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.35	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	ATL	20	0	21	89	21	9	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	88	21	9	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.8%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	3.97	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	87	29	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.7%	2.9%	4.43	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		48	5	80	370	57	54	6	10%	1.7	15.5%	14.5%	1.0%	1.6%	5.42	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	13	200	929	144	135	15	10%	1.7	15.5%	14.5%	1.0%	1.6%	5.42	4.53	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Styven Paez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.6%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.35	23.6%	13.7%	42	-0.23	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	89
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	88
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	88
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	87
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	86
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	86
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	86
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	86
Gerson Moreno R 2017 · 3.76 FIP	21	SU	3.76	23.6%	12.1%	2.1%	.294	5.22	21.3%	2.0%	17	+1.46	3.44	349	86
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	85
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	85
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	23.3%	10.1%	1.14	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68