Johnathan Rogers

Johnathan Rogers P FCL Tigers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%20.1%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	8	0	5	0	0%	0.5	0.0%	62.5%	-62.5%	0.0%	27.00	11.02	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	8	0	5	0	0%	0.5	0.0%	62.5%	-62.5%	0.0%	27.00	11.02	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	8	0	5	0	0%	0.5	0.0%	62.5%	-62.5%	0.0%	27.00	18.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	9	38	161	31	18	3	82%	3.5	13.1%	14.0%	-0.9%	2.7%	3.52	5.27	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	9	38	161	31	18	3	82%	3.5	13.1%	14.0%	-0.9%	2.7%	3.52	5.27	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	11	9	38	161	31	18	3	82%	3.5	19.3%	11.2%	8.1%	1.9%	3.52	3.91	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	6	1	12	64	15	7	3	17%	2.1	15.9%	13.7%	2.3%	7.5%	4.38	7.58	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	6	1	12	64	15	7	3	17%	2.1	15.9%	13.7%	2.3%	7.5%	4.38	7.58	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	6	1	12	64	15	7	3	17%	2.1	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	4.7%	4.38	5.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	18	0	26	123	30	23	0	0%	1.4	17.3%	16.6%	0.8%	0.0%	3.51	3.74	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	18	0	26	123	30	23	0	0%	1.4	17.3%	16.6%	0.8%	0.0%	3.51	3.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	DET	15	0	21	98	25	13	0	0%	1.4	25.5%	13.3%	12.2%	0.0%	3.80	2.63	—
2026	21	A RAW	DET	3	0	4	25	5	10	0	0%	1.4	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	2.08	6.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	34	0	36	153	33	17	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.75	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	17	0	18	76	16	9	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	16	8	2	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	90	22	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		37	10	77	356	53	57	9	27%	2.1	14.8%	15.9%	-1.1%	2.6%	3.96	5.28	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	26	200	921	136	146	24	27%	2.1	14.8%	15.9%	-1.1%	2.6%	3.96	5.28	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnathan Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	20.1%	12.7%	3.1%	—	4.75	21.4%	10.2%	36	-0.33	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	85
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	84
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	84
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	84
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	83
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	83
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	83
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	83
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	83
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	82
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	82
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.46	398	82
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	82