Clevari Tejada — OGILVIE

Clevari Tejada P Bradenton Marauders

+0.1 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 204 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.5 · 2031

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.9%

IP92

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.5peak

2031

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Pirates Black	4	4	16	61	16	3	0	17.8%	6.1%	0.0%	2.30	2.37	+0.5
2024	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	20	7	68	295	52	33	6	12.4%	13.6%	3.1%	4.48	5.48	-0.4
2025	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	26	23	92	394	74	40	4	13.9%	12.0%	1.4%	4.99	4.23	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	3	2	9	41	9	12	0	—	—	—	3.00	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	PIT	17	17	92	388	76	41	10	19.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.65	4.65	+0.6
2026 Total	21	MLB	PIT	—	—	101	429	85	53	10	19.7%	12.3%	2.4%	4.50	4.24	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	PIT	22	22	119	501	104	48	13	20.8%	9.5%	2.7%	4.48	4.39	+1.2
2028	23	MLB	PIT	26	26	143	604	131	54	16	21.7%	8.9%	2.6%	4.33	4.23	+1.7
2029	24	MLB	PIT	30	30	163	687	153	59	18	22.2%	8.6%	2.6%	4.22	4.14	+2.1
2030	25	MLB	PIT	32	32	177	746	169	63	20	22.6%	8.4%	2.6%	4.14	4.08	+2.4
2031	26	MLB	PIT	32	32	177	746	170	62	20	22.8%	8.4%	2.6%	4.09	4.06	+2.5
2032	27	MLB	PIT	32	32	175	740	169	62	20	22.8%	8.4%	2.6%	4.08	4.07	+2.4
2033	28	MLB	PIT	31	31	173	729	166	62	20	22.8%	8.4%	2.7%	4.09	4.09	+2.4
2034	29	MLB	PIT	31	31	169	713	162	61	19	22.7%	8.5%	2.7%	4.12	4.14	+2.2
2035	30	MLB	PIT	30	30	164	691	155	60	19	22.5%	8.6%	2.8%	4.17	4.20	+2.0
2036	31	MLB	PIT	29	29	158	667	148	58	19	22.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.23	4.28	+1.8
2037	32	MLB	PIT	28	28	152	641	141	57	19	21.9%	8.9%	2.9%	4.31	4.36	+1.6
2038	33	MLB	PIT	26	26	145	612	132	55	18	21.6%	9.1%	3.0%	4.40	4.46	+1.4
2039	34	MLB	PIT	25	25	138	581	124	54	18	21.3%	9.3%	3.1%	4.50	4.57	+1.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			53	36	185	791	111	103	15	14.0%	13.0%	1.9%	4.48	4.59	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			57	39	200	855	120	111	16	14.0%	13.0%	1.9%	4.48	4.59	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Clevari Tejada (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	19.5%	10.5%	2.7%	—	4.24	21.7%	12.7%	424	-0.41	—	—	—
Micah Ottenbreit R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	94
Braden Webb R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	93
Chris McElvain R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	93
Jake Peppers R 2027 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	92
Brett Wichrowski R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	17.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.267	4.54	14.5%	3.5%	113	+0.45	4.06	202	91
Kyle Johnston R 2027 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.08	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.44	3.80	395	90
Chase Cohen R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	90
Sam Carlson R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	90
Will Sanders R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	89
Devereaux Harrison R 2027 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	89
Johnathan Harmon R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	89
Adam Hill R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	89
David Palladino R 2027 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	14.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	122	89
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	89
Alex Royalty R 2027 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	89
Jason Savacool R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP-	4.79	14.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.275	4.29	16.6%	5.0%	102	-0.50	4.29	199	89
Tanner Houck R 2027 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	16.5%	13.3%	2.9%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.86	2.28	733	88
Casey Steward R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	17.4%	13.3%	1.4%	.270	4.83	15.1%	2.7%	88	+0.77	4.06	191	88
Nick Hull R 2028 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.78	18.8%	6.8%	146	+0.51	4.27	238	88
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.5	$23M	+$22M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.4	$23M	+$22M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.4	$24M	+$23M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+2.2	$22M	+$19M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.0	$21M	+$17M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$10M		$113M	+$103M