Derik Alcantara

OF Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	ACHC	99	.192/.344/.282	1	4	49	—	.179/.281/.262
2025	20	ROKCHC	142	.320/.403/.475	1	6	76	—	.234/.295/.336
2026	21	ACHC	170	.176/.278/.236	1	5	18	—	.149/.225/.201
2026	21	ROKCHC	79	.232/.321/.420	1	2	36	—	.167/.231/.306
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBCHC	359	.230/.302/.331	4	7	80	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBCHC	100	.236/.308/.349	1	2	85	-0.0
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBCHC	173	.238/.311/.358	3	4	88	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Whiff%99

Z-Con%99

Chase%90

K%88

BB%52

Speed32

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsTre' Morgan (age 22) · Dan Robinson (age 22) · Dwight Smith Jr. (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 236 proj PA

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .300 / .328

PA236

HR3

SB5

K%22

BB%9

ISO102

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	113	30	8	2	0	14	6	1	7	3	265	352	372	723	106	273	5	11	321	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	110	93	32	5	0	2	13	9	1	10	1	344	430	462	892	118	353	8	12	391	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	99	78	15	2	1	1	17	13	1	4	1	192	344	282	626	90	209	13	17	291	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	142	122	39	6	5	1	16	18	1	6	4	320	403	475	878	156	358	13	11	382	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	170	148	26	4	1	1	21	26	0	5	2	176	278	236	515	61	205	15	12	245	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	79	69	16	2	4	1	9	11	0	2	0	232	321	420	741	188	259	14	11	323	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	117	21	5	1	0	10	7	1	7	3	179	250	239	489	60	180	5	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	110	97	27	4	0	2	9	13	1	10	1	278	346	381	727	103	281	12	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	99	84	15	2	1	1	11	19	1	4	1	179	281	262	543	83	190	19	11	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	142	128	30	4	3	1	10	27	1	6	4	234	295	336	631	102	277	19	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	170	154	23	3	1	1	15	35	0	5	2	149	225	201	426	52	184	21	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	79	72	12	1	3	1	6	16	0	2	0	167	231	306	536	139	188	20	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	117	21	5	1	0	10	7	1	7	3	179	250	239	489	60	186	5	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	113	30	8	2	0	14	6	1	7	3	265	352	372	723	106	273	5	11	321	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	110	97	27	4	0	2	9	13	1	10	1	278	346	381	727	103	294	12	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	110	93	32	5	0	2	13	9	1	10	1	344	430	462	892	118	353	8	12	391	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	241	212	45	6	4	2	21	45	2	10	5	212	289	307	596	94	251	19	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	241	200	54	8	6	2	33	31	2	10	5	270	379	400	779	130	301	13	14	344	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	249	227	36	5	4	2	20	51	0	7	2	159	227	242	469	84	193	20	8	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	249	217	42	6	5	2	30	37	0	7	2	194	291	295	586	101	222	15	12	270	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	119	21	5	1	0	10	7	1	7	3	176	250	235	485	59	180	5	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	110	99	27	4	0	2	9	13	1	10	1	273	346	374	720	101	281	12	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	241	216	45	6	4	2	21	45	2	10	5	208	289	301	590	93	241	19	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	249	227	36	5	4	2	20	51	0	7	2	159	227	242	469	84	185	20	8	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	110	99	27	4	0	2	9	13	1	10	1	273	346	374	720	101	281	12	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	241	216	45	6	4	2	21	45	2	10	5	208	289	301	590	93	241	19	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	249	227	36	5	4	2	20	51	0	7	2	159	227	242	469	84	185	20	8	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	359	322	74	14	3	4	31	78	3	7	2	230	302	331	633	102	286	22	9	287	80	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	34%	290	261	61	12	2	4	25	62	2	6	2	233	306	345	651	111	288	21	9	294	85	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	46%	374	335	79	15	3	6	33	80	3	8	2	236	309	354	663	118	289	21	9	298	88	-5	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	52%	421	378	90	17	3	8	37	90	3	9	2	237	310	360	670	122	289	21	9	301	90	-5	+1	+0	-3	+9	0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	54%	451	405	96	18	3	9	40	97	3	9	3	238	311	362	673	125	289	22	9	302	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	54%	463	416	99	19	3	9	41	100	3	9	3	237	310	362	672	125	289	22	9	302	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	CHC	54%	466	419	99	19	3	9	41	102	3	8	3	235	308	357	666	122	288	22	9	299	89	-6	+0	-1	-3	+10	0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	461	415	96	18	3	8	40	102	3	8	3	233	305	351	656	118	286	22	9	296	86	-8	+0	-1	-3	+10	-0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	CHC	52%	453	408	95	18	3	8	39	102	3	7	3	230	302	343	645	113	285	23	9	291	83	-9	+0	-2	-3	+10	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	34%	100	90	21	4	1	1	9	22	1	2	1	236	308	349	657	113	291	22	9	296	85	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	46%	173	155	37	7	1	3	15	37	1	4	1	238	311	358	669	120	292	21	9	301	88	-2	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	52%	217	194	47	9	2	4	19	47	2	4	1	239	312	363	675	124	293	22	9	303	90	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	54%	245	220	53	10	2	5	21	53	2	5	1	240	313	366	678	126	293	22	9	304	91	-3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	54%	251	225	54	10	2	5	22	54	2	5	1	239	312	365	677	126	292	22	9	304	91	-3	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	CHC	54%	253	227	54	10	2	5	22	55	2	5	1	237	310	361	671	123	291	22	9	301	89	-3	+1	-0	-2	+5	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	245	220	52	10	2	4	21	54	2	4	1	235	307	354	662	120	290	22	9	298	86	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	CHC	52%	237	213	50	10	2	4	20	53	2	4	1	232	304	346	650	115	288	22	8	293	83	-5	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1721	1544	368	70	14	31	149	375	14	33	8	238	311	362	673	124	294	22	9	300	81	-25	+3	-2	-10	+37	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	139	26	5	12	56	142	5	12	3	238	311	362	672	123	294	22	9	300	81	-9	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4346	3902	893	165	34	70	376	902	29	103	33	229	301	342	644	114	278	21	9	288	81	-54	+5	-4	-22	+78	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	133	25	5	10	56	135	4	15	5	228	299	339	638	111	278	21	9	288	81	-10	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	3.4	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
/162	664	15	9	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
#4Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.9	1,956	34	37	235	305	354	-12	+0	1.5	1.5
/162	664	12	12	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derik Alcantara (OGILVIE)	22	55→60	33→38	49→54	56	227/300/328	101	286	3	5	22%	9%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tre' Morgan 2024 · A	22	51→57	41→45	53→50	53	245/312/345	100	287	7	14	17%	9%	88	+0.4	256/323/381	125	309	11	12	20%	8%	101	+1.4	251/322/379	128	310	13	11	22%	8%	97	+0.7
✕Dan Robinson 2019 · A	22	51	38→40	51→50	51	240/301/329	89	282	4	10	16%	8%	80	-0.2	211/279/287	76	278	4	7	23%	8%	63	-1.4	191/267/255	64	255	2	5	24%	9%	47	-1.6
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2015 · A	22	51→55	42→50	53→50	49	244/302/354	110	296	8	12	20%	8%	86	+0.3	246/298/352	106	299	8	9	19%	7%	84	+0.1	250/311/385	135	298	13	9	20%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Jose Constanza 2006 · A	22	47→57	37→40	48→60	51	222/294/293	71	286	5	9	23%	9%	70	-0.9	253/308/324	71	326	3	24	21%	7%	80	-0.1	288/334/346	58	335	2	37	14%	6%	91	+0.6
✕Rene Tosoni 2008 · A	22	48→51	39→45	51→45	45	225/300/313	89	297	5	11	25%	7%	77	-0.3	242/316/358	116	320	9	8	25%	7%	93	+0.8	249/325/385	135	328	11	7	25%	7%	99	+0.6
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	53→63	40→45	56→55	49	250/311/350	101	314	7	17	22%	8%	88	+0.5	269/331/377	108	313	8	19	15%	8%	102	+1.5	271/336/373	101	313	6	20	15%	8%	101	+1.2
✕Ramón Flores 2013 · A	21	51→59	41→45	51→50	45	244/297/346	101	307	7	12	22%	6%	82	+0.0	245/307/354	109	301	8	8	20%	8%	88	+0.4	255/328/354	99	304	9	8	18%	9%	94	+0.6
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2023 · A	22	47→57	39→40	52→55	44	222/282/309	86	303	5	16	27%	7%	68	-1.0	253/306/331	78	303	4	15	17%	7%	82	-0.0	258/310/330	72	296	5	18	14%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	48→58	38→30	56→70	48	226/293/312	85	299	4	17	24%	8%	73	-0.6	267/311/317	50	307	1	59	12%	6%	80	-0.2	302/334/348	46	335	0	63	9%	5%	94	+0.8
✕Forrest Wall 2018 · A	22	46→55	40→45	50→70	43	224/276/319	94	291	8	16	25%	6%	68	-1.0	221/281/330	109	307	9	19	29%	7%	73	-0.6	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Kevin Kramer 2016 · A	22	46→56	40→50	54→50	44	220/276/315	95	281	6	12	24%	6%	68	-1.0	247/303/358	111	313	8	8	22%	6%	88	+0.4	257/312/379	122	332	9	8	24%	6%	94	+0.6
●Tony Kemp 2014 · A	22	47→57	39→45	49→55	51	224/303/309	85	284	7	11	22%	9%	77	-0.3	270/337/362	92	319	5	23	16%	8%	101	+1.4	278/346/366	88	327	4	25	15%	8%	102	+1.3
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2012 · A	22	48→56	39→45	52→55	44	225/285/312	87	301	6	16	26%	7%	70	-0.8	247/294/342	95	330	6	18	26%	5%	80	-0.2	259/299/367	108	345	9	26	26%	4%	86	+0.2
✕Miles Mastrobuoni 2018 · A	22	46→56	37→45	49→60	48	220/278/292	73	277	5	13	22%	8%	63	-1.4	239/298/310	71	316	4	12	24%	8%	74	-0.5	253/317/360	108	325	8	21	23%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Tyler Holt 2011 · A	22	49→59	41→40	50→55	51	231/307/344	112	295	5	13	22%	9%	86	+0.3	222/284/289	67	302	2	20	25%	8%	64	-1.3	263/336/322	59	341	1	27	21%	9%	88	+0.3
●Alan Roden 2023 · A	23	46→56	40→45	51→50	51	220/300/313	93	262	7	12	19%	8%	77	-0.3	259/337/379	120	303	10	14	17%	8%	105	+1.7	264/342/387	123	307	11	14	17%	8%	106	+1.4
✕Bo Greenwell 2011 · A	22	55→59	38→45	48→50	47	258/310/341	84	314	5	13	19%	6%	86	+0.3	243/290/338	95	300	6	11	20%	6%	78	-0.3	232/278/333	101	281	7	8	19%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	48	225/305/313	88	293	6	17	24%	8%	79	-0.2	206/264/295	89	290	5	12	29%	6%	58	-1.7	195/251/286	91	274	5	13	29%	6%	49	-0.9
✕Yoel Yanqui 2018 · A	22	47→52	38→40	56→50	50	222/291/309	87	285	4	12	22%	9%	72	-0.7	226/279/313	87	310	6	11	27%	7%	68	-1.0	219/276/310	91	303	7	11	28%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Dustin Harris 2021 · A	22	47→57	38→50	49→60	44	225/277/309	85	291	5	11	24%	6%	66	-1.1	241/307/399	158	293	18	20	23%	8%	99	+1.3	233/308/392	159	286	18	26	24%	8%	96	+0.8

Derik Alcantara

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps