Luke Napleton — OGILVIE

Luke NapletonC Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 97 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .267 / .288

PA8

HR0

K%34

BB%8

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	44	36	4	0	0	1	6	19	1	0	0	111	256	194	450	83	176	43	14	221	36	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	23	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	50	40	10	0	0	1	6	11	1	1	0	250	362	325	687	75	290	22	12	303	91	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	44	38	3	0	0	1	4	26	1	0	0	79	186	158	344	79	158	59	9	155	-9	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	50	42	9	0	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	214	298	286	584	71	260	32	8	270	69	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	94	79	12	0	0	2	9	42	2	1	0	152	256	228	483	76	256	45	10	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	94	76	14	0	0	2	12	30	2	1	0	184	311	263	574	79	250	32	13	265	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	94	83	12	0	0	2	9	42	2	1	0	145	256	217	472	72	212	45	10	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	94	83	12	0	0	2	9	42	2	1	0	145	256	217	472	72	212	45	10	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	24	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		290	38	12	256	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	30%	167	150	30	4	1	3	13	55	2	2	1	200	273	300	573	100	290	33	8	264	65	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	44%	262	236	48	7	1	5	21	84	3	4	1	203	277	305	582	102	290	32	8	269	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	49%	317	285	60	9	2	7	25	100	4	4	1	211	283	330	613	119	290	32	8	272	70	-11	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	51%	352	316	66	10	2	7	29	111	4	5	1	209	284	320	603	111	290	32	8	272	70	-12	+1	-1	+6	+8	0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	51%	367	330	68	10	2	7	30	116	4	5	1	206	280	312	592	106	289	32	8	270	69	-14	+1	-1	+7	+8	0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	51%	375	336	68	10	2	7	31	119	5	4	1	202	280	307	586	104	287	32	8	267	67	-15	+0	-2	+7	+8	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	30%	50	45	9	1	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	200	280	289	569	89	290	32	8	255	65	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	44%	116	105	21	3	1	2	9	37	1	2	1	200	270	305	574	105	290	32	8	260	68	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	49%	155	140	29	4	1	3	12	49	2	2	1	207	279	314	594	107	290	32	8	263	70	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	51%	181	162	34	5	1	4	15	57	2	2	1	210	285	327	612	117	290	31	8	263	70	-6	+0	-0	+3	+4	0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	51%	189	170	35	5	1	4	15	60	2	2	1	206	278	318	596	112	289	32	8	262	69	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	51%	193	173	35	5	1	4	16	61	2	2	1	202	277	312	590	110	287	32	8	259	67	-8	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	884	795	163	23	5	18	71	280	10	11	5	205	279	314	593	109	289	32	8	261	67	-33	+0	-2	+16	+19	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	120	17	4	13	52	206	7	8	4	205	278	315	592	109	289	32	8	261	67	-24	+0	-2	+12	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	1942	1739	353	50	10	38	159	630	24	25	6	203	279	309	588	106	290	32	8	267	67	-69	+2	-4	+33	+40	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	118	17	3	13	53	211	8	8	2	203	278	309	588	107	289	32	8	267	67	-24	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.5	981	19	13	206	277	312	+18	+16	0.8	0.8
/162	664	13	9	+11.9	+10.8	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Napleton (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	195/267/288	93	290	2	1	34%	8%	59	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→45	49→40	39	180/241/289	109	274	11	4	37%	7%	49	-2.4	201/257/318	117	274	12	4	30%	6%	62	-1.4	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→29	45	50	37	194/252/314	121	284	13	12	35%	6%	59	-1.6	211/268/301	90	318	8	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	217/275/286	69	332	7	24	34%	6%	57	-1.1
✕David Sheaffer 2019 · A	24	36	42→50	52→40	39	184/231/287	103	246	10	7	29%	5%	44	-2.8	211/256/331	120	295	12	5	31%	5%	64	-1.3	193/238/303	110	272	11	1	33%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→40	43→45	47→45	45	171/253/277	106	242	11	6	33%	9%	52	-2.2	190/275/295	105	266	10	5	30%	9%	64	-1.3	176/269/273	97	244	10	3	30%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Joe Cronin 2018 · A	24	37	41→45	46→50	44	180/265/274	93	268	8	8	34%	9%	55	-1.9	186/274/283	97	289	9	9	35%	9%	61	-1.5	168/264/259	91	263	9	10	36%	9%	50	-1.1
✕Tate Blackman 2019 · A	24	38→35	45	43→40	40	190/262/305	114	289	13	5	37%	8%	61	-1.5	180/251/269	89	321	9	5	43%	7%	49	-2.4	129/208/180	51	259	5	1	48%	8%	12	-2.8
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	35	41→45	45	45	174/251/275	101	255	8	6	33%	9%	50	-2.3	186/255/286	100	272	9	8	33%	8%	53	-2.1	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Taylor Snyder 2019 · A	24	39→34	44→50	46→50	34	194/238/310	117	291	11	11	36%	4%	53	-2.1	198/246/338	140	298	16	12	38%	5%	62	-1.4	166/224/312	146	239	20	14	39%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Chris Okey 2019 · AA	24	34	40→45	48→40	36	174/227/260	85	258	8	5	35%	5%	37	-3.3	193/249/301	108	284	12	4	34%	6%	55	-2.0	205/259/305	100	287	9	2	30%	5%	56	-0.6
✕Jeremy Eierman 2021 · A	24	34→26	42→50	50→45	33	174/221/277	103	286	10	9	42%	5%	38	-3.2	186/241/326	140	295	17	10	41%	5%	58	-1.7	164/222/309	144	249	20	10	42%	5%	45	-1.1
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→31	42→45	48→50	41	191/251/284	93	257	11	15	30%	6%	52	-2.2	195/269/308	113	260	13	14	29%	8%	64	-1.3	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	36→40	44→50	45→50	43	180/261/297	117	271	11	7	36%	9%	59	-1.6	201/279/356	155	288	17	9	34%	9%	80	-0.2	190/261/345	156	258	19	12	33%	8%	68	-0.7
✕Carter Aldrete 2022 · A	24	41→39	44→50	47→45	37	201/253/309	108	305	12	10	37%	6%	58	-1.7	208/255/347	139	287	17	5	32%	6%	68	-1.0	195/240/330	135	259	17	2	31%	5%	56	-1.1
✕Mat Nelson 2023 · A	24	38→29	42→45	46→40	33	180/249/278	98	318	10	4	44%	6%	50	-2.3	181/266/294	113	262	14	5	35%	8%	61	-1.5	171/264/285	114	233	16	3	33%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Carson Blair 2013 · A	23	35	42→50	43→30	38	176/239/285	109	279	9	6	39%	7%	47	-2.5	200/272/335	135	323	12	4	38%	9%	72	-0.7	196/274/342	145	318	14	1	39%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	179/213/275	95	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/264/299	83	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Johnny Adams 2019 · A	24	37→32	41→40	46→45	38	185/235/279	94	274	9	6	35%	6%	44	-2.8	181/232/271	90	279	9	7	37%	6%	41	-3.0	149/202/224	75	230	9	5	38%	5%	17	-3.5
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/260/306	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	205/263/313	108	295	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/310	115	279	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Rylan Sandoval 2012 · A	24	39	41→40	44→45	37	190/254/282	92	282	9	5	34%	5%	53	-2.1	207/258/299	92	302	7	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	210/259/294	84	306	6	6	32%	5%	52	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps