Zane Barnhart

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	36	52	2.58	3.48	25.5%	14.1%	—	K 18.2% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.76
2025	23	MIX2 levels	39	52	3.83	2.77	27.0%	9.3%	—	K 20.9% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.36
2026	24	AADET	44	55	4.07	4.13	26.7%	13.2%	—	K 21.7% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.00
2027PROJ	25	MLBDET	67	70	5.18	5.18	21.8%	15.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBDET	30	31	5.08	5.07	22.1%	14.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBDET	42	44	5.04	5.05	22.2%	14.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command37FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNolan Riggs (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Kevin Kopps (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%21.8%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	6	29	8	8	0	0%	1.3	27.6%	27.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.84	4.26	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	6	29	8	8	0	0%	1.3	27.6%	27.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.84	4.36	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	52	220	56	31	3	0%	1.5	18.2%	16.7%	1.5%	2.0%	2.58	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	52	220	56	31	3	0%	1.5	18.2%	16.7%	1.5%	2.0%	2.58	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	52	220	56	31	3	0%	1.5	25.5%	14.1%	11.4%	1.4%	2.58	3.48	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	215	58	20	3	0%	1.3	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	1.0%	3.83	3.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	215	58	20	3	0%	1.3	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	1.0%	3.83	3.36	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	52	215	58	20	3	0%	1.3	27.0%	9.3%	17.7%	1.4%	3.83	2.77	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	44	0	55	243	65	32	7	0%	1.3	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	3.5%	4.07	5.00	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	44	0	55	243	65	32	7	0%	1.3	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	3.5%	4.07	5.00	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	44	0	55	243	65	32	7	0%	1.3	26.7%	13.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	DET	67	0	70	296	64	45	9	0%	1.0	21.8%	15.1%	6.7%	3.0%	5.18	5.18	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	67	0	70	296	65	43	9	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.4%	7.7%	3.0%	5.08	5.07	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	DET	66	0	69	291	65	41	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	14.1%	8.1%	3.0%	5.04	5.05	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	DET	64	0	67	282	63	40	9	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.0%	8.1%	3.1%	5.06	5.10	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	DET	61	0	64	270	59	38	9	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.1%	7.8%	3.3%	5.14	5.21	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	30	0	31	131	29	19	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.4%	7.7%	3.0%	5.08	5.07	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	DET	42	0	44	186	41	26	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	14.1%	8.1%	3.0%	5.04	5.05	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	DET	49	0	51	215	48	30	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.0%	8.1%	3.1%	5.06	5.10	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	DET	50	0	52	220	48	31	7	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.1%	7.8%	3.3%	5.14	5.21	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	165	106	23	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.1%	8.0%	3.1%	5.08	4.73	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	120	26	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.1%	8.0%	3.1%	5.08	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		124	0	166	707	146	105	15	0%	1.3	20.6%	14.8%	5.8%	2.1%	3.48	4.40	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	0	200	854	176	126	18	0%	1.3	20.6%	14.8%	5.8%	2.1%	3.48	4.40	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zane Barnhart (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	21.8%	15.1%	3.0%	—	5.07	22.2%	8.0%	206	-0.11	—	—	—
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	92
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	92
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	91
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	88
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	88
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	85
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	85
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	85
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	85
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	527	84
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	84
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	84
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	84
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	84
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	22.0%	14.4%	1.19	5.10
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*