Tayler Montiel — OGILVIE

Tayler Montiel P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	22	8	2	0	0%	1.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	5.40	1.18	—
2025	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	22	8	2	0	0%	1.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	5.40	1.18	—
2025	23	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	22	8	2	0	0%	1.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	5.40	1.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	43	0	64	281	81	36	8	0%	1.5	22.0%	14.7%	7.2%	3.6%	4.24	5.07	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	43	0	64	281	81	36	8	0%	1.5	22.0%	14.7%	7.2%	3.6%	4.24	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	ARI	18	0	31	136	37	16	2	0%	1.7	27.2%	11.8%	15.4%	1.5%	4.99	3.10	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	ARI	14	0	20	86	32	10	5	0%	1.4	37.2%	11.6%	25.6%	5.8%	3.66	4.62	—
2026	24	AA RAW	ARI	11	0	13	59	12	10	1	0%	1.2	20.3%	16.9%	3.4%	1.7%	3.38	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	60	0	63	267	62	29	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.0%	12.3%	3.0%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	60	0	63	267	63	29	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.52	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	59	0	62	263	62	28	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.55	0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	26	0	27	114	26	13	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.0%	12.3%	3.0%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	42	19	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.52	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	46	0	48	203	48	22	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	0	117	494	116	54	15	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.16	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	92	26	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		48	0	69	303	70	43	10	0%	1.4	23.0%	14.3%	8.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.79	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	883	203	126	29	0%	1.4	23.0%	14.3%	8.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.79	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tayler Montiel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.8%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.54	23.4%	12.5%	189	-0.19	—	—	—
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	90
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	86
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	86
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	86
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	86
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	86
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	86
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	85
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	85
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	85
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	85
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	85
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.2%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	85
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	85
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	452	84
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	84
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	84
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	84
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	83
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	23.3%	11.0%	1.17	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22