Tayler Montiel
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99109vR 118
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.5%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.18 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.4% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 26 | 0 | 43 | 188 | 61 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.4% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.36 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 74 | 316 | 91 | 33 | 9 | — | — | 28.8% | 10.4% | 18.4% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 76 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 0 | 48 | 210 | 54 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.6% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.20 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 0 | 200 | 869 | 223 | 110 | 26 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.6% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tayler Montiel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.9% | 14.8% | 31 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 85 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 85 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 84 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 84 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 84 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.13 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.47 | 3.66 | 128 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 84 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .322 | 4.21 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 77 | +1.07 | 2.87 | 186 | 83 |
| Greg Nappo L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 82 |
| Robert Garcia L 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .342 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.22 | 2.21 | 452 | 82 |
| Josh Dye L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.57 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.40 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 79 | +1.83 | 2.81 | 238 | 82 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 81 |
| Brendon Little L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.14 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 187 | +0.45 | 2.63 | 478 | 81 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 52 | -0.29 | 3.12 | 161 | 81 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 81 |
| Kirby Snead L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.03 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.05 | 24.6% | 15.6% | 98 | -0.98 | 2.09 | 365 | 81 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
| Hayden Harris L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.23 | 29.1% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.21 | 30.2% | 16.2% | 129 | -0.02 | 1.86 | 180 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 1.16 | 4.31 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |