Andrew Dunford — OGILVIE

Andrew Dunford P FCL Astros

Age 22 RHP 6'7" / 235 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%18.3%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	4	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	4	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	1	0	0	5	0	4	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	80.0%	-80.0%	0.0%	108.00	13.23	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	1	0	0	5	0	4	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	80.0%	-80.0%	0.0%	108.00	13.23	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	1	0	0	5	0	4	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	80.0%	-80.0%	0.0%	108.00	39.10	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	14	1	20	95	7	10	2	7%	1.4	5.0%	13.2%	-8.1%	2.9%	6.41	5.96	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	14	1	20	95	7	10	2	7%	1.4	5.0%	13.2%	-8.1%	2.9%	6.41	5.96	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	14	1	20	95	7	10	2	7%	1.4	7.4%	10.5%	-3.2%	2.1%	6.41	5.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	HOU	11	0	12	51	9	6	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.8%	6.5%	3.0%	5.08	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	19	0	20	84	17	9	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.7%	9.2%	3.0%	4.86	4.77	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	10	0	10	42	8	5	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.7%	9.2%	3.0%	4.86	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	8	4	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.7%	9.2%	3.0%	4.86	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	81	20	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.7%	9.2%	3.0%	4.86	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		19	1	24	117	8	18	3	5%	1.3	6.6%	15.8%	-9.2%	2.4%	6.75	5.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	8	200	975	65	154	23	5%	1.3	6.6%	15.8%	-9.2%	2.4%	6.75	5.86	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Dunford (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	18.3%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.77	20.0%	9.2%	20	-0.31	—	—	—
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	92
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	91
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	88
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	87
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	87
Miles Mikolas R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	23	SU	4.56	16.0%	10.4%	2.7%	.275	4.29	14.9%	8.6%	57	-0.27	3.13	1,386	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	87
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	87
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	87
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	87
Luke Stofel R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	17.6%	12.4%	2.0%	.328	4.42	14.0%	1.8%	147	+0.16	4.26	188	86
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	86
Dawil Almonte R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	22	SU	4.88	17.9%	10.7%	3.5%	.267	4.31	12.6%	0.7%	58	-0.57	3.59	138	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	283	86
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	4.99	19.0%	6.9%	176	+0.67	4.32	220	85
Isrrael De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.53 FIP	22	SU	4.53	18.0%	11.8%	2.6%	.150	4.65	20.2%	7.7%	86	+0.12	4.36	100	85