Josiah Romeo — OGILVIE

Josiah Romeo P Stockton Ports

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.9 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.10

FIP6.10

K%10.0%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%-5.0%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4040

CMD2020

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	13	11	48	236	33	23	1	85%	3.7	9.5%	12.2%	-2.7%	0.6%	8.81	4.19	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	13	11	48	236	33	23	1	85%	3.7	9.5%	12.2%	-2.7%	0.6%	8.81	4.19	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	13	11	48	236	33	23	1	85%	3.7	14.0%	9.7%	4.2%	0.4%	8.81	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	23	21	107	468	92	38	12	91%	4.7	14.3%	9.7%	4.6%	3.4%	5.05	4.97	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	23	21	107	468	92	38	12	91%	4.7	14.3%	9.7%	4.6%	3.4%	5.05	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	OAK	4	4	17	76	17	7	2	100%	4.3	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.6%	1.04	3.82	—
2026	20	A RAW	OAK	19	17	90	392	75	31	10	89%	4.7	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	2.6%	5.82	3.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	110	464	60	64	13	100%	5.0	12.8%	13.8%	-1.0%	2.8%	5.78	5.69	-1.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	116	488	74	63	13	100%	5.0	15.2%	12.9%	2.3%	2.8%	5.48	5.35	-0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	120	506	85	62	14	100%	5.4	16.7%	12.3%	4.4%	2.7%	5.25	5.13	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	123	518	91	62	14	100%	5.6	17.6%	12.0%	5.6%	2.7%	5.09	5.00	-0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	124	525	95	62	14	100%	5.9	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	2.7%	5.00	4.94	-0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	124	525	96	62	14	100%	5.9	18.3%	11.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.95	4.91	-0.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	122	517	94	62	14	100%	6.1	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	2.7%	4.95	4.95	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	119	501	91	60	14	100%	5.9	18.1%	12.1%	6.1%	2.8%	5.00	5.04	-0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	113	479	86	59	14	100%	6.0	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	3.0%	5.10	5.17	-0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	107	450	79	57	14	100%	5.9	17.5%	12.6%	4.9%	3.2%	5.25	5.35	-0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	54	228	29	32	6	100%	4.9	12.8%	13.8%	-1.0%	2.7%	5.74	5.65	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	84	355	54	46	10	100%	5.2	15.2%	12.9%	2.3%	2.7%	5.44	5.31	-0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	101	426	71	53	11	100%	5.3	16.7%	12.3%	4.4%	2.7%	5.21	5.09	-0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	109	460	81	55	12	100%	5.7	17.6%	12.0%	5.6%	2.6%	5.05	4.96	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	114	481	87	57	13	100%	6.0	18.1%	11.9%	6.2%	2.6%	4.96	4.90	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	116	490	89	58	13	100%	6.1	18.3%	11.8%	6.4%	2.6%	4.91	4.87	-0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	116	490	89	58	13	100%	6.1	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	2.7%	4.91	4.91	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	113	477	86	58	13	100%	5.9	18.1%	12.1%	6.1%	2.8%	4.96	5.00	-0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	108	456	82	56	13	100%	6.0	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.9%	5.06	5.13	-0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	101	426	75	54	13	100%	5.9	17.5%	12.6%	4.9%	3.1%	5.21	5.31	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		178	178	1017	4293	745	526	118	100%	5.7	17.3%	12.3%	5.1%	2.7%	5.10	4.69	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	147	103	23	100%	5.7	17.3%	12.3%	5.1%	2.7%	5.10	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		36	32	155	704	90	74	17	89%	4.3	12.7%	10.5%	2.2%	2.5%	6.21	4.71	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	908	115	96	22	89%	4.3	12.7%	10.5%	2.2%	2.5%	6.21	4.71	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josiah Romeo (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.10	10.0%	15.0%	2.9%	—	5.38	15.0%	2.0%	345	-0.72	—	—	—
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	87
Ramon Santos R 2015 · 6.07 FIP	20	SP	6.07	7.2%	14.3%	3.2%	.352	4.52	13.3%	3.4%	191	-1.55	3.74	355	87
Nolan Martinez R 2018 · 5.82 FIP	20	SP	5.82	10.4%	15.4%	3.0%	.289	3.71	11.7%	3.7%	33	-2.11	2.48	140	86
Jefry Rodriguez R 2015 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	9.9%	14.6%	2.0%	.286	4.07	16.6%	5.2%	333	-1.13	3.30	578	86
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	85
Edinxon Arias R 2017 · 7.03 FIP	19	SP	7.03	7.6%	19.9%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	127	83
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	83
Matt Ball R 2015 · 5.76 FIP	20	SP	5.76	12.1%	14.6%	3.4%	.367	3.74	17.2%	9.4%	173	-2.02	3.50	312	82
Luis Cedeno R 2015 · 6.24 FIP	21	SP	6.24	10.4%	13.6%	4.2%	.275	4.11	16.4%	6.3%	169	-2.13	3.36	215	82
Eybersson Polanco R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	19	SP	5.53	10.5%	13.1%	3.0%	.320	3.78	18.6%	7.3%	157	-1.75	3.01	240	81
Oliver Garcia R 2018 · 6.31 FIP	20	SP	6.31	10.4%	15.7%	3.8%	.315	5.86	16.5%	1.8%	53	-0.45	3.05	233	81
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	81
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	80
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	80
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	80
Ricky DeVito R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	10.2%	10.3%	3.8%	.317	4.18	21.6%	7.9%	90	-1.47	4.04	215	80
Moises Nova R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.05	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.56	3.42	219	79
Hunter Stratton R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.69	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.04	3.02	527	79
Shane Watson R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	21	SP	5.11	11.5%	10.6%	3.0%	.333	4.91	12.5%	2.1%	194	-0.20	4.51	237	78
Xavier Javier R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	20	SP	5.10	11.7%	15.3%	1.9%	.283	7.06	9.5%	-12.3%	37	+1.96	4.47	188	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	110	16.9%	12.4%	1.09	5.20
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45