Jonathan Russell

Jonathan Russell P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%21.7%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	11	36	145	34	14	0	100%	3.3	15.9%	12.1%	3.9%	0.0%	1.00	3.28	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	11	36	145	34	14	0	100%	3.3	15.9%	12.1%	3.9%	0.0%	1.00	3.28	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	11	11	36	145	34	14	0	100%	3.3	23.4%	9.7%	13.8%	0.0%	1.00	2.38	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	6	31	148	31	19	1	50%	2.6	14.2%	16.0%	-1.8%	0.9%	6.89	4.45	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	6	31	148	31	19	1	50%	2.6	14.2%	16.0%	-1.8%	0.9%	6.89	4.45	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	12	6	31	148	31	19	1	50%	2.6	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	0.7%	6.89	3.36	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	40	162	48	11	0	0%	1.4	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	0.0%	2.45	2.29	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	40	162	48	11	0	0%	1.4	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	0.0%	2.45	2.29	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	40	162	48	11	0	0%	1.4	29.6%	6.8%	22.8%	0.0%	2.45	1.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	3	50	219	68	18	6	10%	1.6	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	3.6%	3.99	4.33	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	3	50	219	68	18	6	10%	1.6	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	3.6%	3.99	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TB	3	0	4	11	6	1	0	0%	1.2	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.35	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	TB	28	3	46	208	62	17	6	11%	1.6	29.8%	8.2%	21.6%	2.9%	4.30	3.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	49	0	51	215	49	21	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	2.7%	4.36	4.28	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	50	0	53	223	53	21	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.7%	4.22	4.13	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	54	229	55	20	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.9%	15.1%	2.6%	4.11	4.03	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	55	232	57	20	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	2.6%	4.03	3.97	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	55	232	57	20	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	2.6%	3.98	3.95	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	54	228	56	20	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.9%	2.7%	3.98	3.99	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	24	0	25	106	24	10	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	2.8%	4.40	4.32	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	37	0	39	165	39	15	5	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	2.7%	4.26	4.17	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	43	0	45	190	46	17	5	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.9%	15.1%	2.7%	4.15	4.07	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	47	0	49	207	51	18	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	2.7%	4.07	4.01	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	48	0	50	211	52	18	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	2.7%	4.02	3.99	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	48	0	50	211	52	18	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.9%	2.8%	4.02	4.03	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	0	258	1087	262	97	30	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.0%	15.2%	2.7%	4.13	3.70	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	75	23	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.0%	15.2%	2.7%	4.13	3.70	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		82	20	157	674	131	76	9	24%	1.9	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	1.4%	3.49	3.64	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	25	200	857	167	96	12	24%	1.9	19.4%	11.2%	8.2%	1.4%	3.49	3.64	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Russell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.7%	10.8%	2.7%	—	4.14	23.5%	14.1%	158	-0.37	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	86
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	85
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	84
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	84
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	84
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	20	SU	3.57	23.5%	13.2%	1.4%	.286	4.64	18.0%	7.8%	180	+1.07	3.57	204	84
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	84
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	84
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	83
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	83
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	83
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	83
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	83
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	83
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.46	398	83
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	83
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	49	23.9%	9.1%	1.03	4.13
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19