Josh Wakefield — OGILVIE

Josh WakefieldOF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 L/L 6'0" / 180 lbs A HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION248 act + 165 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .292 / .324

PA165

HR3

SB12

K%31

BB%8

BABIP304

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT31

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED77

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	HOU	—	248	220	50	6	1	3	22	85	4	33	7	227	309	305	613	77	351	34	9	277	70	-8	+4	+0	-1	+7	0.1
YTD	22	A	HOU	—	248	207	56	7	1	4	35	60	4	33	7	271	386	372	758	101	359	24	14	347	124	+7	+4	+0	-1	+7	1.6
ROS	22	A	HOU	0%	165	148	32	5	1	3	14	51	2	12	2	216	292	324	616	108	301	31	8	273	67	-6	+2	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		303	—	—	266	62	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	22	A	HOU	—	248	221	50	6	1	3	22	85	4	33	7	226	309	303	612	77	348	34	9	277	70	-8	+4	+0	-1	+7	0.1
TOT	22	A	HOU	—	413	368	82	11	2	6	36	136	6	45	9	223	302	312	614	90	331	33	9	275	69	-15	+5	+0	-2	+12	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	HOU	34%	544	486	106	16	3	10	47	162	6	23	4	218	295	325	620	107	301	30	9	281	73	-17	+3	+0	-3	+15	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	HOU	46%	580	518	115	18	3	11	50	169	7	22	4	222	299	332	631	110	301	29	9	286	77	-15	+3	+0	-3	+16	0.1
2029	25	MLB	HOU	52%	604	540	120	19	3	12	52	174	7	22	4	222	299	335	634	113	301	29	9	289	79	-14	+3	+0	-4	+17	0.2
2030	26	MLB	HOU	54%	619	553	123	19	3	13	54	177	7	22	4	222	300	338	638	116	300	29	9	290	80	-14	+3	+0	-4	+18	0.3
2031	27	MLB	HOU	54%	625	558	124	19	3	13	55	179	7	22	4	222	300	337	637	115	300	29	9	290	80	-14	+3	+0	-4	+18	0.3
2032	28	MLB	HOU	54%	623	556	123	19	3	13	55	180	7	21	4	221	299	336	636	115	300	29	9	289	79	-15	+3	-1	-4	+18	0.1
2027	23	MLB	HOU	34%	187	167	38	6	1	4	16	56	2	8	2	228	303	347	650	120	303	30	9	275	68	-7	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
2028	24	MLB	HOU	46%	268	240	52	8	1	5	23	78	3	10	2	217	293	321	614	104	304	29	9	280	72	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	HOU	52%	312	278	64	10	2	7	27	90	4	11	2	230	307	356	664	126	303	29	9	283	74	-9	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.1
2030	26	MLB	HOU	54%	336	300	68	11	2	7	29	96	4	12	2	227	303	347	650	120	303	29	9	284	75	-9	+2	+0	-2	+10	-0.0
2031	27	MLB	HOU	54%	339	302	68	11	2	7	30	97	4	12	2	225	304	344	648	119	303	29	9	284	75	-9	+2	+0	-2	+10	-0.0
2032	28	MLB	HOU	54%	338	301	68	11	2	7	30	97	4	11	2	226	304	346	650	120	302	29	9	283	75	-10	+1	-0	-2	+10	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1780	1589	358	57	10	37	155	514	21	64	12	225	303	344	646	118	306	29	9	282	74	-53	+8	-0	-11	+50	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	132	21	4	14	57	188	8	23	4	228	306	350	656	122	309	29	9	282	74	-19	+3	-0	-4	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	3760	3359	743	115	19	75	327	1092	43	144	26	221	298	334	632	113	302	29	9	287	78	-95	+18	-1	-23	+107	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	128	20	3	13	57	189	7	25	4	220	298	332	630	112	301	29	9	287	78	-16	+3	-0	-4	+18	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,099	42	75	220	294	332	-13	+0	-0.1	0.2
	/162	664	13	24	220	294	332	-4.0	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Wakefield (OGILVIE)	22	26→31	37→42	72→77	57	223/302/312	90	331	6	45	33%	9%	69	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→38	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	63	-0.9	207/276/283	76	320	2	18	33%	8%	55	-1.4	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Max Ferguson 2023 · A	23	36→33	39→40	63→60	52	173/278/262	89	263	7	32	33%	12%	53	-1.5	178/261/269	91	271	9	28	34%	10%	46	-2.0	178/251/269	91	257	10	29	33%	9%	39	-1.5
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2019 · A	23	43	43→45	60→65	37	204/267/318	114	330	10	30	39%	7%	61	-1.0	191/253/296	105	310	11	26	39%	7%	50	-1.8	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	60	-1.0	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	50	-1.7	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	11	-1.2
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Francisco Santana 2010 · A	22	43	42→50	57→55	43	212/261/324	112	266	9	13	24%	6%	59	-1.1	198/235/292	94	282	7	8	31%	4%	39	-2.5	164/182/259	96	230	6	6	32%	2%	4	-1.5
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	42→41	42→50	65→70	46	207/269/319	112	274	8	36	27%	8%	62	-0.9	208/276/333	125	274	13	50	28%	8%	69	-0.4	220/282/351	131	271	15	58	24%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Pedro Toribio 2012 · A	22	48	40	65→60	45	228/274/334	105	272	6	27	18%	6%	66	-0.6	250/279/329	79	309	3	23	19%	4%	66	-0.6	280/299/338	58	344	0	29	18%	2%	72	-0.1
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→42	36→40	62→60	49	232/308/311	79	296	2	28	21%	8%	76	+0.0	207/277/276	69	268	2	17	21%	8%	54	-1.4	197/272/260	63	253	1	17	20%	8%	45	-1.4
✕Ty Morrison 2011 · A	21	45→51	40	64→55	38	209/266/311	102	319	6	28	34%	6%	58	-1.2	229/277/309	80	325	3	22	29%	5%	62	-0.9	241/288/311	69	331	1	23	26%	4%	62	-0.7
✕Tyler James 2018 · A	21	44	36→30	64→65	42	204/266/281	77	293	2	27	29%	7%	50	-1.7	220/283/294	74	332	4	27	32%	7%	61	-1.0	230/297/289	60	352	4	45	33%	8%	61	-0.4
✕Corey Rosier 2023 · A	23	48→51	42→40	62→60	49	229/304/341	112	296	9	28	25%	9%	82	+0.5	215/276/314	99	288	8	33	26%	7%	63	-0.8	205/266/300	95	272	8	36	26%	7%	52	-1.0
✕Clay Fuller 2009 · A	22	45	42→45	59→55	44	212/292/327	115	313	8	20	32%	8%	74	-0.1	209/278/327	118	293	12	18	31%	7%	68	-0.5	204/269/322	118	278	14	18	31%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	77	+0.1	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	61	-1.0	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	30	-0.7
✕Eric Brown Jr. 2023 · A	22	45→33	43→40	58→65	45	218/293/335	117	292	10	27	28%	8%	77	+0.1	191/260/272	81	254	7	28	26%	7%	46	-2.0	158/229/228	70	213	6	17	28%	7%	19	-1.6
✕Victor Scott II 2023 · A	22	44→53	44→40	58→65	50	212/296/342	129	289	10	19	28%	10%	79	+0.3	222/282/318	96	284	8	44	23%	6%	66	-0.6	217/280/304	88	276	7	49	23%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Mason Auer 2023 · A	22	46	46→45	63→60	42	228/288/361	133	305	13	29	29%	7%	81	+0.4	187/243/297	110	292	10	31	37%	6%	46	-2.0	158/215/259	101	256	10	37	40%	5%	21	-2.6