Naoel Mejia — OGILVIE

Naoel Mejia P FCL Phillies

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%22.3%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	0	20	93	23	17	2	0%	1.8	16.8%	22.8%	-6.0%	2.9%	5.49	6.15	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	0	20	93	23	17	2	0%	1.8	16.8%	22.8%	-6.0%	2.9%	5.49	6.15	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	11	0	20	93	23	17	2	0%	1.8	24.7%	18.3%	6.5%	2.2%	5.49	4.68	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	17	0	17	73	18	11	0	0%	1.0	16.8%	18.8%	-2.1%	0.0%	2.65	4.07	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	17	0	17	73	18	11	0	0%	1.0	16.8%	18.8%	-2.1%	0.0%	2.65	4.07	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	17	0	17	73	18	11	0	0%	1.0	24.7%	15.1%	9.6%	0.0%	2.65	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	9	0	10	47	13	7	0	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	5.23	—	—
YTD	24	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	9	0	10	47	13	7	0	0%	1.1	—	—	—	—	5.23	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	PHI	9	0	10	47	13	7	0	0%	1.1	27.7%	14.9%	12.8%	0.0%	5.23	2.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	19	11	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.92	4.84	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	PHI	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	13.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.92	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	5	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.92	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	117	23	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.92	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		37	0	47	213	41	42	3	0%	1.3	19.2%	19.7%	-0.5%	1.3%	4.40	4.67	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	0	200	906	174	179	11	0%	1.3	19.2%	19.7%	-0.5%	1.3%	4.40	4.67	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Naoel Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	22.3%	14.8%	3.0%	—	4.84	22.7%	9.6%	20	-0.27	—	—	—
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	85
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	85
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	84
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	84
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	84
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	83
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	83
David Garner R 2017 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	21.5%	13.8%	3.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	154	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	83