Odarlin Cruz — OGILVIE

Odarlin Cruz P ACL Rockies

Age 21 RHP 6'7" / 188 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%21.4%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	8	0	11	55	4	3	2	0%	1.3	4.9%	6.8%	-1.9%	4.4%	6.75	5.98	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	8	0	11	55	4	3	2	0%	1.3	4.9%	6.8%	-1.9%	4.4%	6.75	5.98	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	8	0	11	55	4	3	2	0%	1.3	7.3%	5.5%	1.8%	3.6%	6.75	5.63	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	20	0	25	114	34	7	0	0%	1.2	20.3%	7.7%	12.6%	0.0%	1.80	2.36	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	20	0	25	114	34	7	0	0%	1.2	20.3%	7.7%	12.6%	0.0%	1.80	2.36	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	20	0	25	114	34	7	0	0%	1.2	29.8%	6.1%	23.7%	0.0%	1.80	1.22	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	23	0	29	134	38	8	2	0%	1.3	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	2.4%	4.60	3.74	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	23	0	29	134	38	8	2	0%	1.3	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	2.4%	4.60	3.74	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	23	0	29	134	38	8	2	0%	1.3	28.4%	6.0%	22.4%	1.5%	4.60	2.21	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	19	0	32	139	39	10	4	0%	1.7	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	4.0%	4.55	4.84	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	19	0	32	139	39	10	4	0%	1.7	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	4.0%	4.55	4.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	COL	19	0	32	139	39	10	4	0%	1.7	28.1%	7.2%	20.9%	2.9%	4.55	3.22	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	COL	31	0	33	138	31	10	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.6%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	4.12	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	COL	15	0	16	68	15	5	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.6%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	4.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	15	5	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.6%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	3.74	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	62	25	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.6%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		70	0	97	442	78	35	11	0%	1.4	17.7%	7.9%	9.8%	2.6%	4.10	4.01	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	914	162	72	23	0%	1.4	17.7%	7.9%	9.8%	2.6%	4.10	4.01	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Odarlin Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	21.4%	7.8%	2.9%	—	4.12	22.5%	14.9%	33	-0.15	—	—	—
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	92
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	91
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	91
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	90
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	87
Sean Boyle R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SU	4.70	21.3%	7.8%	4.4%	.342	2.87	22.6%	15.3%	86	-1.83	2.87	543	87
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	87
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	87
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	87
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	86
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	86
Scott Williams R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	21	SU	3.39	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.73	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.34	2.89	119	86
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	85
Josh Sborz R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	21	SU	3.92	18.1%	6.8%	2.7%	.314	3.74	18.2%	8.4%	295	-0.18	2.15	569	85
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	85
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	85
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	85