Josh Sborz — OGILVIE

Josh Sborz P Round Rock Express

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9990vR 82

ERA3.73

FIP3.44

K%29.5%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%23.1%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

FB+1.9 (46%)

CU (23%)

SL-0.7 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	3	22	97	25	9	3	23%	1.7	18.1%	6.8%	11.4%	2.7%	2.42	3.92	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	3	22	97	25	9	3	23%	1.7	25.8%	9.3%	16.5%	3.1%	2.42	3.82	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	19	125	505	125	36	10	63%	4.2	19.2%	8.1%	11.1%	2.4%	2.81	3.85	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	19	125	505	125	36	10	63%	4.2	24.8%	7.1%	17.6%	2.0%	2.81	3.00	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	24	24	117	505	81	54	8	100%	4.9	13.0%	11.8%	1.2%	1.5%	3.86	4.30	—
2017	23	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	24	24	117	505	81	54	8	100%	4.9	16.0%	10.7%	5.3%	1.6%	3.86	3.99	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	53	225	71	20	1	0%	1.2	27.0%	9.4%	17.6%	0.5%	3.88	2.27	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	53	225	71	20	1	0%	1.2	31.6%	8.9%	22.7%	0.4%	3.88	1.81	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	59	257	75	18	4	0%	1.1	27.6%	6.8%	20.8%	0.9%	5.19	2.15	+1.7
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	59	257	75	18	4	0%	1.1	29.2%	7.0%	22.2%	1.6%	5.19	2.35	+1.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	4	0	4	16	2	1	1	0%	1.1	12.5%	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%	2.08	6.27	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	4	0	4	16	2	1	1	0%	1.1	12.5%	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%	2.08	5.87	-0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	63	0	59	257	69	31	7	0%	0.9	26.8%	12.1%	14.8%	2.5%	3.97	3.75	+0.6
2021	27	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	63	0	59	257	69	31	7	0%	0.9	26.8%	12.1%	14.8%	2.7%	3.97	3.88	+0.5
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	45	189	62	21	6	5%	1.2	30.9%	11.4%	19.5%	3.2%	4.03	3.68	+0.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	2	45	189	62	21	6	5%	1.2	32.8%	11.1%	21.7%	3.2%	4.03	3.48	+0.6
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	231	73	17	9	0%	1.2	30.7%	7.9%	22.8%	3.5%	5.27	3.41	+0.8
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	231	73	17	9	0%	1.2	30.7%	7.9%	22.8%	3.5%	5.27	3.41	+0.8
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	231	73	17	9	0%	1.2	31.6%	7.4%	24.2%	3.9%	5.27	3.49	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	27	121	34	15	1	0%	0.9	24.6%	5.8%	18.8%	1.3%	6.33	2.49	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	27	121	34	15	1	0%	0.9	24.6%	5.8%	18.8%	1.3%	6.33	2.49	+0.7
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	27	121	34	15	1	0%	0.9	28.1%	12.4%	15.7%	0.8%	6.33	2.73	+0.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	12	58	12	8	2	8%	1.0	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	3.4%	5.25	4.99	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	12	58	12	8	2	8%	1.0	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	3.4%	5.25	4.99	—
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	12	58	12	8	2	8%	1.0	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	3.4%	5.25	5.27	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			154	1	163	697	193	67	23	1%	1.1	27.7%	9.6%	18.1%	3.3%	4.96	3.80	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	38	0	41	184	38	30	10	0%	1.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	6.3%	6.10	6.79	—
YTD	32	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	38	0	41	184	38	30	10	0%	1.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	6.3%	6.10	6.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AA RAW	TEX	2	0	2	9	0	3	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	TEX	36	0	39	175	38	27	10	0%	1.1	21.7%	15.4%	6.3%	5.7%	6.41	6.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TEX	48	0	50	212	61	15	7	0%	1.0	28.7%	6.9%	21.8%	3.3%	3.72	3.72	+0.5
2028	34	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	193	54	14	7	0%	1.0	27.8%	7.4%	20.4%	3.6%	3.90	4.02	+0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	TEX	39	0	41	174	47	14	7	0%	1.1	26.8%	7.9%	18.9%	3.9%	4.18	4.36	+0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	TEX	17	0	18	76	22	5	2	0%	1.1	28.7%	6.9%	21.8%	3.3%	3.72	3.72	+0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	TEX	14	0	15	63	18	5	2	0%	1.1	27.8%	7.4%	20.4%	3.6%	3.90	4.02	+0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	TEX	10	0	11	46	12	4	2	0%	1.1	26.8%	7.9%	18.9%	3.9%	4.18	4.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	1	208	886	246	81	30	1%	1.1	27.7%	9.1%	18.6%	3.3%	4.73	3.75	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	1	200	852	237	78	29	1%	1.1	27.7%	9.1%	18.6%	3.3%	4.73	3.75	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		399	49	621	2645	587	258	63	12%	1.6	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	2.4%	4.14	3.76	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	16	200	852	189	83	20	12%	1.6	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	2.4%	4.14	3.76	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Sborz (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.44	29.5%	6.4%	3.0%	—	4.01	27.8%	20.5%	137	+0.57	—	—	—
Mark Lowe R 2015 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.22	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.37	153	80
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	78
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	75
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	74
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	73
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.92	176	73
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	72
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	72
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	72
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	71
David Hernandez R 2017 · 2.60 FIP	32	SU	2.60	24.3%	4.2%	1.8%	.295	3.25	26.1%	18.9%	107	+0.65	2.60	268	71
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	70
Gregory Infante R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	31	SU	4.07	22.0%	4.6%	4.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	230	69
Pedro Strop R 2017 · 3.08 FIP	32	SU	3.08	26.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.263	3.43	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.35	2.56	277	69
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	69
George Kontos R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.287	4.41	14.7%	8.6%	97	+0.70	3.55	290	69
Chad Gaudin R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	22.8%	6.8%	1.2%	.325	3.15	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.48	2.02	102	69
Javy Guerra R 2018 · 2.95 FIP	32	SU	2.95	23.0%	5.9%	1.9%	.311	4.03	19.7%	13.8%	83	+1.08	2.95	260	68
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	67
Chris Martin R 2018 · 3.04 FIP	32	SU	3.04	20.9%	1.7%	2.7%	.311	2.92	25.7%	23.1%	117	-0.12	1.76	416	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	28.3%	7.1%	1.31	3.86
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63