Alexander Campos
P
FCL Rays
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%12.6%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 14 | 0 | 22 | 84 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 17.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.64 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Rays | 14 | 12 | 60 | 248 | 43 | 9 | 5 | 11.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 3.43 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 21 | 2 | 43 | 183 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 12.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.95 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | TB | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TB | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TB | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TB | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | TB | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | TB | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 14 | 125 | 515 | 67 | 27 | 15 | 13.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.95 | 4.29 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 22 | 200 | 824 | 107 | 43 | 24 | 13.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.95 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Campos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.28 | 22.3% | 14.0% | 121 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.34 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.30 | 4.04 | 287 | 93 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 92 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 91 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.33 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .250 | 4.37 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.04 | 4.33 | 130 | 91 |
| Josh Advocate R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 91 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 91 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 91 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.73 | 3.94 | 122 | 90 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.72 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | .316 | 2.79 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 41 | -0.93 | 2.79 | 144 | 90 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 90 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 90 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 90 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 89 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 89 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.91 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .374 | 4.56 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.65 | 3.81 | 220 | 88 |
| Roman Mendez R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Matt Pidich R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.09 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.33 | 4.07 | 196 | 88 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||