Julio Rosario
P
Columbia Fireflies
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
A
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 120
ERA5.29
FIP5.29
K%17.3%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%4.5%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 12 | 3 | 28 | 115 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 25% | 2.4 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.18 | 5.41 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 12 | 3 | 28 | 115 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 25% | 2.4 | 17.4% | 5.2% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 3.18 | 3.70 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 44 | 191 | 56 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 0.8% | 2.44 | 3.30 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 44 | 191 | 56 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 29.3% | 9.4% | 19.9% | 0.5% | 2.44 | 2.08 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 30 | 0 | 50 | 218 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 5.17 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 30 | 0 | 50 | 218 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | KC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 42 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 12.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.29 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 45 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 5.12 | 5.07 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 11.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 5.12 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 50 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 4.65 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 159 | 98 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 5.06 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 3 | 122 | 524 | 90 | 57 | 15 | 5% | 1.9 | 17.2% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 3.38 | 4.54 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 5 | 200 | 857 | 148 | 93 | 24 | 5% | 1.9 | 17.2% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 3.38 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julio Rosario (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.29 | 17.3% | 12.8% | 3.0% | — | 5.04 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 116 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 94 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 91 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 89 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 88 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 88 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 88 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 88 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 88 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 87 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 87 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 15.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.21 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 114 | -1.38 | 3.69 | 162 | 87 |
| Matthew Gorst R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 16.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 199 | 87 |
| Hunter Hayes R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.78 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .316 | 6.43 | 12.6% | -6.5% | 33 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 210 | 87 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 87 |
| Cade Denton R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.96 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 127 | 87 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 86 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 86 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.18 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .278 | 4.55 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 107 | -0.63 | 3.94 | 189 | 86 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 86 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 18.2% | 12.1% | 1.15 | 5.14 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |