Julio Rosario — OGILVIE

Julio Rosario P Columbia Fireflies

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%17.3%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	3	28	115	20	6	3	25%	2.4	11.8%	6.5%	5.3%	4.0%	3.18	5.15	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	12	3	28	115	20	6	3	25%	2.4	11.8%	6.5%	5.3%	4.0%	3.18	5.15	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	12	3	28	115	20	6	3	25%	2.4	17.4%	5.2%	12.2%	2.6%	3.18	3.70	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	44	191	56	18	1	0%	1.8	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	0.8%	2.44	3.27	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	44	191	56	18	1	0%	1.8	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	0.8%	2.44	3.27	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	44	191	56	18	1	0%	1.8	29.3%	9.4%	19.9%	0.5%	2.44	2.08	—
2025	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	50	218	51	23	7	0%	1.7	17.3%	12.4%	4.9%	3.8%	4.35	5.33	—
2025	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	50	218	51	23	7	0%	1.7	17.3%	12.4%	4.9%	3.8%	4.35	5.33	—
2025	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	50	218	51	23	7	0%	1.7	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	3.2%	4.35	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	KC	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	3.0%	5.35	5.35	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	58	244	45	30	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	3.0%	5.18	5.13	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	58	244	46	29	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.9%	7.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.04	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	24	0	25	106	19	13	3	0%	1.0	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	3.0%	5.18	5.13	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	36	0	38	160	30	19	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.9%	7.0%	3.0%	5.07	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	50	32	8	0%	1.1	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	3.0%	5.11	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	102	25	0%	1.1	18.6%	12.0%	6.6%	3.0%	5.11	4.70	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		66	3	122	524	90	57	15	5%	1.9	17.2%	10.9%	6.4%	2.8%	3.38	4.54	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	5	200	857	148	93	24	5%	1.9	17.2%	10.9%	6.4%	2.8%	3.38	4.54	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	17.3%	13.2%	3.0%	—	5.09	18.6%	6.5%	116	-0.26	—	—	—
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	93
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	91
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	89
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	89
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	89
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	88
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	87
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	87
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	87
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	87
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	86
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	86
Justin Garcia R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	17.5%	12.2%	4.0%	.265	4.84	14.7%	0.1%	14	-0.54	4.06	164	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	18.2%	12.4%	1.16	5.20
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10