Jesus Carrera
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 21
RHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 96
ERA4.20
FIP4.20
K%23.5%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 6 | 3 | 19 | 70 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 3.2 | 26.2% | 10.7% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 3.32 | 2.24 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 6 | 3 | 19 | 70 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 3.2 | 38.6% | 8.6% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 3.32 | 1.21 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 10 | 3 | 26 | 106 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 30% | 2.6 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 1.1% | 3.76 | 3.11 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 10 | 3 | 26 | 106 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 30% | 2.6 | 28.3% | 6.6% | 21.7% | 0.9% | 3.76 | 2.11 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 40 | 167 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 31% | 3.1 | 26.3% | 7.9% | 18.4% | 0.8% | 2.90 | 2.30 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 40 | 167 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 31% | 3.1 | 37.1% | 6.6% | 30.5% | 0.6% | 2.90 | 1.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 15 | 6 | 52 | 238 | 51 | 22 | 10 | 40% | 3.4 | 15.9% | 10.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.79 | 6.14 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.20 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 72 | 323 | 71 | 30 | 12 | — | — | 22.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 6.06 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.04 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.04 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 3.66 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 77 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 44 | 16 | 137 | 581 | 120 | 55 | 15 | 36% | 3.1 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.02 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 23 | 200 | 846 | 175 | 81 | 22 | 36% | 3.1 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Carrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.04 | 24.4% | 15.8% | 21 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 82 |
| Inohan Paniagua R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.78 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .298 | 4.27 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 297 | +0.49 | 3.78 | 473 | 82 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 81 |
| Clark Beeker R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 80 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 80 |
| Jeronimo Castro R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.37 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 3.84 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 158 | 80 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 80 |
| Cole Stapler R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 79 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 79 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 79 |
| Eiberson Castellano R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.94 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 189 | -0.01 | 3.69 | 348 | 79 |
| Daniel Bies R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.22 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.22 | 115 | 79 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 79 |
| Manuel Castro R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.14 | 21.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .336 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 2.21 | 210 | 78 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 78 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 78 |
| Rico Garcia R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 77 |
| Franco Aleman R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .391 | 3.00 | 29.2% | 18.4% | 114 | -0.93 | 0.86 | 198 | 77 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 77 |
| Geno Encina R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 76 |