Jesus Carrera
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
RHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.20
FIP4.20
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.4%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 6 | 3 | 19 | 70 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 26.2% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 3.32 | 2.24 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | 10 | 3 | 26 | 106 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 1.1% | 3.76 | 3.14 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 13 | 4 | 40 | 167 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 26.3% | 7.9% | 0.8% | 2.90 | 2.30 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 2 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.05 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | HOU | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 29 | 11 | 3 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 36 | 148 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 25.1% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 25.5% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.81 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.79 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 26.0% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 10 | 92 | 369 | 89 | 33 | 3 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 0.9% | 3.31 | 2.74 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 22 | 200 | 799 | 193 | 71 | 6 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 0.9% | 3.31 | 2.74 | +5.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Carrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | — | 3.94 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 94 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 92 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 91 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 91 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 91 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.15 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.8% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +1.74 | 3.15 | 395 | 91 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 90 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.78 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .341 | 4.02 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.24 | 3.40 | 259 | 90 |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 90 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 89 |
| Collin Kober R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 2.76 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.63 | 2.38 | 294 | 89 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 88 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.14 | 25.9% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.52 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 166 | +0.38 | 3.14 | 221 | 88 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.37 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .350 | 4.28 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.91 | 2.93 | 103 | 88 |
| Sam Delaplane R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.18 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .342 | 2.87 | 32.7% | 23.4% | 128 | -0.31 | 2.58 | 194 | 88 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 88 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 88 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 88 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 88 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.49 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.03 | 3.09 | 213 | 88 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $9M | +$5M | ||