Jesus Carrera — OGILVIE

Jesus Carrera P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%23.8%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%15.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.8M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	6	3	19	70	27	6	0	50%	3.2	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	0.0%	3.32	2.24	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	6	3	19	70	27	6	0	50%	3.2	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	0.0%	3.32	2.24	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	6	3	19	70	27	6	0	50%	3.2	38.6%	8.6%	30.0%	0.0%	3.32	1.21	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	10	3	26	106	30	7	1	30%	2.6	19.2%	8.3%	11.0%	1.2%	3.76	3.17	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	10	3	26	106	30	7	1	30%	2.6	19.2%	8.3%	11.0%	1.2%	3.76	3.17	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	10	3	26	106	30	7	1	30%	2.6	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.9%	3.76	2.11	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	40	167	62	11	1	31%	3.1	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	0.8%	2.90	2.31	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	40	167	62	11	1	31%	3.1	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	0.8%	2.90	2.31	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	40	167	62	11	1	31%	3.1	37.1%	6.6%	30.5%	0.6%	2.90	1.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	6	85	371	74	36	12	26%	3.7	14.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.2%	4.43	5.61	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	6	85	371	74	36	12	26%	3.7	14.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.2%	4.43	5.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	HOU	23	6	85	371	74	36	12	26%	3.7	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.43	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	84	0	88	371	91	29	10	0%	1.0	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	2.8%	4.00	3.93	+0.7
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	87	0	91	385	96	29	11	0%	1.0	25.1%	7.5%	17.5%	2.8%	3.91	3.83	+0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	89	0	93	394	100	29	11	0%	1.0	25.5%	7.3%	18.1%	2.7%	3.83	3.76	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	90	0	95	399	103	29	11	0%	1.1	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	2.7%	3.77	3.72	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	90	0	95	399	104	29	11	0%	1.1	26.0%	7.2%	18.8%	2.7%	3.72	3.69	+1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	89	0	93	394	102	28	11	0%	1.0	25.9%	7.2%	18.7%	2.8%	3.73	3.73	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	86	0	90	382	99	28	11	0%	1.1	25.8%	7.4%	18.4%	2.9%	3.78	3.82	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	82	0	86	364	93	28	11	0%	1.1	25.6%	7.6%	18.0%	3.0%	3.88	3.95	+0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	77	0	81	342	86	27	11	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	3.2%	4.03	4.12	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	HOU	41	0	43	182	45	14	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	2.7%	3.96	3.89	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	63	0	66	279	70	21	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	7.5%	17.5%	2.7%	3.87	3.79	+0.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	73	0	77	325	83	24	9	0%	1.1	25.5%	7.3%	18.1%	2.7%	3.79	3.72	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	80	0	84	355	91	26	9	0%	1.1	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	2.7%	3.73	3.68	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	82	0	86	363	94	26	10	0%	1.0	26.0%	7.2%	18.8%	2.7%	3.68	3.65	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	82	0	86	363	94	26	10	0%	1.0	25.9%	7.2%	18.7%	2.7%	3.69	3.69	+0.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	81	0	85	359	93	26	10	0%	1.0	25.8%	7.4%	18.4%	2.8%	3.74	3.78	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	78	0	82	346	89	26	10	0%	1.1	25.6%	7.6%	18.0%	2.9%	3.83	3.90	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	73	0	77	325	82	26	10	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	3.1%	3.98	4.07	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		654	0	687	2900	741	216	81	0%	1.1	25.6%	7.4%	18.1%	2.8%	3.79	3.41	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	216	63	24	0%	1.1	25.6%	7.4%	18.1%	2.8%	3.79	3.41	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		52	16	171	714	137	72	18	31%	3.3	19.2%	10.1%	9.2%	2.5%	3.84	4.15	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	19	200	835	161	84	21	31%	3.3	19.2%	10.1%	9.2%	2.5%	3.84	4.15	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Carrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	23.8%	8.3%	2.8%	—	3.84	25.0%	17.5%	272	-0.23	—	—	—
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	82
Jose Romero R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	21.7%	5.2%	2.4%	.267	4.37	13.6%	5.6%	193	+1.13	3.24	235	81
Liam Simon R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SW	3.27	26.6%	11.9%	1.6%	.362	5.97	19.7%	-6.0%	84	+2.70	3.27	105	80
Inohan Paniagua R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	21	SW	3.68	23.3%	10.8%	2.1%	.298	4.28	18.8%	8.2%	297	+0.60	3.68	473	80
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	80
Manuel Castro R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	21	SW	3.24	21.5%	7.5%	1.8%	.336	3.41	23.0%	13.1%	115	+0.17	2.21	210	79
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	78
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	78
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	78
Scooter Hightower R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	21	SW	3.23	18.7%	4.4%	2.1%	.304	2.86	19.6%	14.6%	68	-0.37	2.86	160	77
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	77
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	77
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	77
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	76
Ryan Watson R 2021 · 3.11 FIP	23	SW	3.11	21.9%	6.8%	1.8%	.324	4.50	19.3%	10.6%	229	+1.39	3.11	412	76
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	76
Jeronimo Castro R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP-	3.45	25.2%	8.2%	2.6%	.362	3.85	20.1%	7.9%	35	+0.40	3.19	158	76
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	76
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	76
Ian Koenig R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	22	SU	3.69	20.0%	6.6%	2.6%	.310	5.39	15.1%	7.5%	284	+1.70	3.69	303	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	83	25.5%	7.5%	1.10	3.85
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13