Manuel Castro — OGILVIE

Manuel Castro P San Antonio Missions

Age 24 RHP 5'8" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%22.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	9	0	17	72	25	5	0	0%	1.9	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	0.0%	1.04	2.21	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	9	0	17	72	25	5	0	0%	1.9	34.7%	6.9%	27.8%	0.0%	1.04	1.08	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	40	191	55	25	7	31%	2.5	20.6%	15.7%	4.9%	5.3%	7.59	6.23	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	5	40	191	55	25	7	31%	2.5	28.8%	13.1%	15.7%	3.7%	7.59	4.49	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	12	5	46	189	55	12	3	42%	3.8	21.5%	7.5%	14.0%	1.8%	3.91	3.24	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	12	5	46	189	55	12	3	42%	3.8	21.5%	7.5%	14.0%	1.8%	3.91	3.24	—
2023	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	12	5	46	189	55	12	3	42%	3.8	29.1%	6.3%	22.8%	1.6%	3.91	2.34	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	61	255	75	14	3	0%	1.5	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	1.7%	3.26	3.04	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	61	255	75	14	3	0%	1.5	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	1.7%	3.26	3.04	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	61	255	75	14	3	0%	1.5	29.4%	5.5%	23.9%	1.2%	3.26	1.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	59	250	73	33	4	0%	1.2	23.9%	12.9%	11.0%	1.9%	3.99	3.77	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	59	250	73	33	4	0%	1.2	23.9%	12.9%	11.0%	1.9%	3.99	3.77	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	59	250	73	33	4	0%	1.2	29.2%	13.2%	16.0%	1.6%	3.99	3.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	6	0	5	24	3	3	0	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	5.06	—	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	6	0	5	24	3	3	0	0%	0.9	—	—	—	—	5.06	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	SD	6	0	5	24	3	3	0	0%	0.9	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	5.06	3.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SD	53	0	55	233	54	23	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	2.6%	4.27	4.23	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	53	0	55	233	54	23	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.6%	4.24	4.21	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	52	0	54	230	53	23	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.7%	4.26	4.26	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	SD	23	0	24	101	23	10	3	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.9%	13.1%	2.6%	4.27	4.23	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	35	0	37	156	36	15	4	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.6%	4.24	4.21	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	40	0	42	177	41	18	5	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.7%	4.26	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	0	104	437	101	43	12	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.7%	4.26	3.86	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	83	23	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.7%	4.26	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		131	10	228	981	216	103	23	8%	1.7	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	2.3%	4.22	3.84	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	9	200	859	189	90	20	8%	1.7	22.0%	10.5%	11.5%	2.3%	4.22	3.84	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	22.5%	10.5%	2.6%	—	4.23	23.1%	13.3%	165	-0.10	—	—	—
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	92
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	91
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	91
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	90
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	90
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	90
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	90
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	89
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	89
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	89
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	87
Dakota Donovan R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	24	SU	3.15	22.2%	8.4%	1.6%	.310	3.55	20.3%	8.9%	95	+0.40	3.15	153	87
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	23.0%	10.0%	1.02	4.27
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42