Manuel Castro
P
San Antonio Missions
Age 24
RHP
5'8" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION5 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%23.2%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres | 9 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 0.0% | 1.04 | 2.21 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres | 9 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 34.7% | 6.9% | 27.8% | 0.0% | 1.04 | 1.08 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 5 | 40 | 191 | 55 | 25 | 7 | 31% | 2.5 | 20.6% | 15.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.59 | 6.44 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 5 | 40 | 191 | 55 | 25 | 7 | 31% | 2.5 | 28.8% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 3.7% | 7.59 | 4.49 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 12 | 5 | 46 | 189 | 55 | 12 | 3 | 42% | 3.8 | 21.5% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 1.7% | 3.91 | 3.14 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 12 | 5 | 46 | 189 | 55 | 12 | 3 | 42% | 3.8 | 29.1% | 6.3% | 22.8% | 1.6% | 3.91 | 2.34 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 61 | 255 | 75 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.1% | 6.8% | 15.3% | 1.9% | 3.26 | 3.14 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 61 | 255 | 75 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.4% | 5.5% | 23.9% | 1.2% | 3.26 | 1.96 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 73 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 3.99 | 3.91 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 73 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.2% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 1.6% | 3.99 | 3.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 6 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 45 | 192 | 42 | 22 | 4 | — | — | 21.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.46 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.2% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 40 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 3.88 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 87 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 3.88 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 10 | 228 | 981 | 218 | 106 | 24 | 8% | 1.7 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.22 | 3.92 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 9 | 200 | 859 | 191 | 93 | 21 | 8% | 1.7 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.22 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.26 | 23.6% | 13.1% | 40 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 91 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 91 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 90 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 90 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 89 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 89 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 89 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 89 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 89 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 89 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 88 |
| Zach Franklin R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 88 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 88 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 88 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 88 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 104 | 87 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 40 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 1.02 | 4.34 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |