Ryan Watson

P Los Angeles Angels

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	28	35	2.83	3.27	26.1%	9.4%	—	K 22.5% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.62
2025	27	AAASF	46	51	4.26	2.69	28.1%	6.1%	—	K 24.1% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.17
2026	28	MLBLAA	53	72	4.00	3.61	21.2%	6.8%	0.8
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAA	49	51	3.89	3.96	22.5%	5.7%	0.4
2028PROJ86% MLB	30	MLBLAA	39	41	4.09	4.20	21.9%	6.3%	0.2
2029PROJ89% MLB	31	MLBLAA	30	32	4.31	4.44	21.2%	6.9%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo45

K%43

xwOBA vs34

Form2.20 ERA (proj 3.89) · K 32.8% (proj 22.5%) · BB 6.0% (proj 5.7%) ▲▲ last 90d · 16 IP through Oct 27

CompsMike Fyhrie (age 30) · Ryan Brasier (age 28) · Casey Sadler (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA3.89

FIP3.96

K%22.5%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%16.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	4	65	272	79	16	4	18%	2.9	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	1.8%	3.48	3.11	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	4	65	272	79	16	4	18%	2.9	29.0%	5.9%	23.2%	1.5%	3.48	2.20	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	107	441	108	29	16	67%	4.0	20.0%	7.1%	12.8%	3.7%	3.44	4.38	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	107	441	108	29	16	67%	4.0	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	3.6%	3.44	3.84	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	34	12	88	393	82	46	13	35%	2.6	17.9%	10.5%	7.4%	3.7%	5.95	4.93	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	34	12	88	393	82	46	13	35%	2.6	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	3.3%	5.95	4.73	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	35	138	36	13	3	0%	1.2	22.5%	9.0%	13.6%	2.3%	2.83	3.62	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	35	138	36	13	3	0%	1.2	22.5%	9.0%	13.6%	2.3%	2.83	3.62	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	35	138	36	13	3	0%	1.2	26.1%	9.4%	16.7%	2.2%	2.83	3.27	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	46	0	51	228	64	14	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	5.5%	18.6%	2.6%	4.26	3.17	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	46	0	51	228	64	14	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	5.5%	18.6%	2.6%	4.26	3.17	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	46	0	51	228	64	14	5	0%	1.1	28.1%	6.1%	21.9%	2.2%	4.26	2.69	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	53	0	72	307	65	21	8	0%	1.4	21.2%	6.8%	14.3%	2.6%	4.00	3.58	+0.8
2026	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	53	0	72	307	65	21	8	0%	1.4	21.2%	6.8%	14.3%	2.6%	4.00	3.58	+0.8
2026	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	53	0	72	307	65	21	8	0%	1.4	21.2%	6.8%	14.3%	2.6%	4.00	3.61	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	0	72	307	65	21	8	0%	1.4	21.2%	6.8%	14.3%	2.6%	4.00	3.61	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAA	49	0	51	215	48	12	7	0%	1.0	22.5%	5.7%	16.8%	3.0%	3.89	3.96	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	45	0	48	201	44	13	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	6.3%	15.5%	3.2%	4.09	4.20	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	LAA	34	0	36	153	32	11	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.44	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	39	0	41	173	38	11	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	6.3%	15.5%	3.2%	4.09	4.20	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	LAA	30	0	32	135	29	9	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	0	145	616	132	41	18	0%	1.2	21.4%	6.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.09	3.77	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		169	0	200	849	182	56	25	0%	1.2	21.4%	6.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.09	3.77	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		210	34	417	1779	369	137	53	16%	2.0	20.8%	7.7%	13.0%	3.0%	4.12	3.95	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	16	200	853	177	66	25	16%	2.0	20.8%	7.7%	13.0%	3.0%	4.12	3.95	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 51 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.17 (+0.46)K% 28.1% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.07%	—	×0.860	24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.14%	—	×0.900	5.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.938	×1.100	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 18 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.68 (+0.35)K% 27.4% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.40%	—	×0.860	23.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×0.900	7.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.010	×1.100	2.98%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 16 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.54 (+0.51)K% 26.2% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.23%	—	×0.810	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.84%	—	×1.100	10.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.249	×1.200	1.58%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 88 IPFIP 4.64 → 4.93 (+0.29)K% 20.9% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.87%	—	×0.860	17.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.70%	—	×0.900	10.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷0.995	×1.100	3.66%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 95 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.27 (+0.54)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.91%	—	×0.810	20.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.44%	—	×1.100	5.98%
HR / BF /BF	3.89%	÷1.170	×1.200	3.99%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 12 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.09 (+0.37)K% 14.5% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.55%	—	×0.880	12.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.55%	—	×1.050	15.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.970	×1.100	2.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 31 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.17 (+0.84)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.68%	—	×0.770	22.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.62%	—	×1.150	7.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.041	×1.250	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 34 IPFIP 2.08 → 3.05 (+0.97)K% 29.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.740	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.15%	—	×1.180	6.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.035	×1.300	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	22.5%	5.7%	3.0%	—	4.30	21.6%	15.0%	84	+0.34	—	—	—
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	81
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Casey Sadler R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	29	SU	3.56	21.8%	4.9%	3.1%	.279	3.04	25.1%	15.9%	60	-0.52	2.21	385	79
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	77
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	75
Deolis Guerra R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	26.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.280	3.20	26.6%	19.8%	132	-0.39	2.53	364	75
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	75
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	75
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	74
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	74
Blake Treinen R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	29	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.8%	2.0%	.332	2.94	26.6%	18.0%	165	-0.21	1.53	601	73
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	73
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	73
David Carpenter R 2014 · 2.84 FIP	29	SU	2.84	25.9%	6.2%	2.1%	.327	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	50	+2.14	2.66	275	73
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	73
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	73
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	73
Ryan Tepera R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	25.4%	8.5%	2.2%	.245	4.11	25.5%	16.3%	107	+0.88	2.35	445	72
John Gorman R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	23.4%	7.5%	3.5%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	2.08	141	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	54	21.7%	6.6%	1.16	4.04
Dale Thayer ('15)	1.3	63	20.4%	6.3%	1.07	3.47
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*