Ryan Watson — OGILVIE

Ryan Watson P Los Angeles Angels

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA3.71

FIP3.71

K%21.1%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

SI (15%)

CU (17%)

SL-0.5 (23%)

CT-0.9 (25%)

FB-2.8 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	4	65	272	79	16	4	18%	2.9	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	1.8%	3.48	3.11	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	4	65	272	79	16	4	18%	2.9	29.0%	5.9%	23.2%	1.5%	3.48	2.20	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	107	441	108	29	16	67%	4.0	20.0%	7.1%	12.8%	3.7%	3.44	4.38	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	107	441	108	29	16	67%	4.0	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	3.6%	3.44	3.84	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	34	12	88	393	82	46	13	35%	2.6	17.3%	10.5%	6.8%	3.7%	5.95	4.98	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	34	12	88	393	82	46	13	35%	2.6	17.3%	10.5%	6.8%	3.7%	5.95	4.98	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	34	12	88	393	82	46	13	35%	2.6	20.9%	11.7%	9.2%	3.3%	5.95	4.73	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	35	138	36	13	3	0%	1.2	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	2.3%	2.83	3.66	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	35	138	36	13	3	0%	1.2	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	2.3%	2.83	3.66	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	35	138	36	13	3	0%	1.2	26.1%	9.4%	16.7%	2.2%	2.83	3.27	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	46	0	51	228	64	14	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	5.5%	17.8%	2.6%	4.26	3.24	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	46	0	51	228	64	14	5	0%	1.1	23.3%	5.5%	17.8%	2.6%	4.26	3.24	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	46	0	51	228	64	14	5	0%	1.1	28.1%	6.1%	21.9%	2.2%	4.26	2.69	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			49	0	68	290	58	20	8	0%	1.4	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.12	3.81	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	49	0	68	290	58	20	8	0%	1.4	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	2.7%	4.12	3.77	+0.6
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	49	0	68	290	58	20	8	0%	1.4	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	2.7%	4.12	3.77	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	LAA	49	0	68	290	58	20	8	0%	1.4	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.12	3.80	+0.6
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	LAA	49	0	68	290	58	20	8	0%	1.4	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.12	3.80	+0.6
ROS	28	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	27	6	2	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	2.9%	3.71	3.71	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	LAA	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	2.9%	3.71	3.71	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	74	317	64	22	9	—	—	20.1%	6.9%	13.2%	2.8%	4.09	3.76	+0.8
FULL	28	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	74	312	64	22	9	—	—	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	2.8%	4.09	3.80	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	LAA	116	0	122	513	109	35	15	0%	1.0	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.15	4.21	+0.5
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	109	0	114	483	101	35	16	0%	1.0	20.9%	7.1%	13.7%	3.2%	4.29	4.39	+0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	LAA	110	0	116	490	104	33	15	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.15	4.21	+0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	104	0	109	460	96	33	15	0%	1.0	20.9%	7.1%	13.7%	3.2%	4.29	4.39	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		268	0	298	1263	263	88	38	0%	1.1	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.19	3.88	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	0	200	847	176	59	25	0%	1.1	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.19	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		206	34	413	1762	357	136	53	17%	2.0	20.3%	7.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.14	4.01	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	16	200	853	173	66	26	17%	2.0	20.3%	7.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.14	4.01	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.92	22.6%	6.0%	2.9%	—	4.30	21.0%	14.1%	236	+0.38	—	—	—
Danny Farquhar R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	22.4%	6.8%	3.2%	.324	3.84	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.01	3.62	224	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	75
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	74
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	74
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	73
Pedro Beato R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	17.4%	7.5%	1.6%	.276	3.93	19.0%	11.2%	192	+0.46	3.47	295	73
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	73
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	73
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	73
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	73
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	72
Taylor Cole R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	25.4%	10.4%	2.6%	.291	3.49	22.0%	13.9%	72	-0.21	3.49	433	72
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	72
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	72
Taylor Williams R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	28	SU	4.15	21.9%	8.4%	3.3%	.275	3.85	22.1%	12.1%	103	-0.30	2.51	309	72
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	71
Murphy Smith R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	19.3%	9.3%	1.6%	.245	4.43	13.6%	6.8%	145	+0.89	3.16	300	71
Sam Dyson R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	28	SU	3.42	19.3%	8.1%	1.7%	.287	3.76	18.9%	11.9%	187	+0.34	2.66	333	71
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	121	21.6%	6.6%	1.18	4.11
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Braxton Garrett ('24)	1.6	80	23.1%	5.7%	1.04	3.98
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37