Ryan Watson
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 79 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA3.97
FIP3.97
K%20.9%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP79
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p2218.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.375
SI (16%)
CU (14%)
SL-0.5 (22%)
CT-0.9 (25%)
FB-2.8 (37%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 4 | 65 | 272 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 18% | 2.9 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 15.1% | 1.7% | 3.48 | 3.07 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 4 | 65 | 272 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 18% | 2.9 | 29.0% | 5.9% | 23.2% | 1.5% | 3.48 | 2.20 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 107 | 441 | 108 | 29 | 16 | 67% | 4.0 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 3.44 | 4.14 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 107 | 441 | 108 | 29 | 16 | 67% | 4.0 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 17.9% | 3.6% | 3.44 | 3.84 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 34 | 12 | 88 | 393 | 82 | 46 | 13 | 35% | 2.6 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.95 | 5.12 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 34 | 12 | 88 | 393 | 82 | 46 | 13 | 35% | 2.6 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 5.95 | 4.73 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 35 | 138 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 3.60 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 35 | 138 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 16.7% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 3.27 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 46 | 0 | 51 | 228 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 6.4% | 18.3% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 3.34 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 46 | 0 | 51 | 228 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 21.9% | 2.2% | 4.26 | 2.69 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 30 | 0 | 49 | 210 | 38 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BOS | 75 | 0 | 79 | 332 | 69 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BOS | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 70 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 127 | 542 | 107 | 43 | 17 | — | — | 19.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.16 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 127 | 537 | 107 | 43 | 17 | — | — | 20.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 116 | 0 | 122 | 513 | 109 | 40 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 109 | 0 | 114 | 483 | 101 | 39 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 102 | 0 | 107 | 450 | 93 | 38 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 110 | 0 | 116 | 490 | 104 | 38 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 104 | 0 | 109 | 460 | 97 | 37 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 96 | 0 | 101 | 426 | 88 | 36 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 415 | 0 | 453 | 1916 | 396 | 154 | 64 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.20 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 175 | 68 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 187 | 34 | 394 | 1682 | 346 | 144 | 50 | 18% | 2.1 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.09 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 17 | 200 | 854 | 175 | 73 | 25 | 18% | 2.1 | 20.5% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.96 | 23.8% | 6.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.59 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 342 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 80 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 78 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 75 |
| Elian Leyva R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.16 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.14 | 3.16 | 158 | 75 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 74 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 74 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 73 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.77 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .291 | 3.46 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 72 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 433 | 73 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 73 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 73 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 72 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .276 | 4.18 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.78 | 3.40 | 295 | 72 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | .275 | 3.73 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 103 | -0.47 | 2.59 | 309 | 72 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 72 |
| Anthony Bass R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 71 |
| Matt Andriese R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 22.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.62 | 24.7% | 17.5% | 151 | -0.61 | 3.10 | 744 | 71 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.77 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.34 | 2.67 | 333 | 71 |
| Scott McGough R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.4% | .372 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 429 | 71 |
| Tanner Roark R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.46 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .286 | 3.78 | 20.2% | 12.9% | 572 | -0.68 | 3.13 | 942 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 117 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 1.26 | 4.35 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |