Ryan Watson
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.6
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.17
FIP4.17
xFIP6.22
SIERA5.63
K%23.3%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%14.9%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL6060
CMD6060
K†5555
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p109.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.448
SI (20%)
CU (17%)
SL-0.5 (19%)
CT-0.9 (21%)
FB-2.8 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 22 | 4 | 65 | 272 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 1.8% | 3.48 | 3.10 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 27 | 18 | 107 | 441 | 108 | 29 | 16 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 3.44 | 4.45 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 34 | 12 | 88 | 393 | 82 | 46 | 13 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 5.95 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 28 | 0 | 35 | 138 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 2.83 | 3.67 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 46 | 0 | 51 | 228 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 24.7% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 3.21 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 8 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 11.5% | 13.5% | 5.8% | 7.36 | 7.00 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 49 | 212 | 41 | 20 | 8 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 40 | 16 | 6 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 36 | 15 | 6 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 31 | 14 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.03 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 165 | 34 | 356 | 1524 | 314 | 133 | 48 | 20.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 19 | 200 | 855 | 176 | 75 | 27 | 20.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.96 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.51 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 139 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 86 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 85 |
| Chris Martin R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.18 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.21 | 1.72 | 402 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 83 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 82 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 81 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 81 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.42 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.85 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.43 | 2.67 | 333 | 80 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 80 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.68 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.38 | 3.02 | 258 | 80 |
| Anthony Bass R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 80 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 80 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 80 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 80 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 80 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.10 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.09 | 3.18 | 253 | 80 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.