Jason Hernandez

IF DSL Padres Gold

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	145	.244/.375/.336	1	8	34	—	.152/.264/.208
2025	19	ROKDSL Padres Go…	16	.154/.312/.154	0	1	-10	—	.071/.188/.071
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBSD	126	.206/.280/.280	1	2	61	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBSD	39	.207/.281/.289	0	1	65	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

CompsKyle Nevin (age 21) · Chris Roller (age 21) · Misael Urbina (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .277 / .278

PA35

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	47	9	2	0	3	4	16	3	1	0	191	296	426	722	234	214	30	7	323	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	119	29	4	2	1	18	28	7	8	4	244	375	336	711	92	308	19	12	331	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	13	2	0	0	0	3	5	0	1	0	154	312	154	466		250	31	19	244	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	48	5	1	0	1	3	19	3	1	0	104	204	188	391	83	135	35	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	125	19	2	1	1	12	36	7	8	4	152	264	208	472	56	203	25	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		159	38	12	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	48	5	1	0	1	3	19	3	1	0	104	204	188	391	83	143	35	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	47	9	2	0	3	4	16	3	1	0	191	296	426	722	234	214	30	7	323	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	125	19	2	1	1	12	36	7	8	4	152	264	208	472	56	202	25	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	119	29	4	2	1	18	28	7	8	4	244	375	336	711	92	308	19	12	331	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		125	38	12	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	13	2	0	0	0	3	5	0	1	0	154	312	154	466		250	31	19	244	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	48	5	1	0	1	3	19	3	1	0	104	204	188	391	83	135	35	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	125	19	2	1	1	12	36	7	8	4	152	264	208	472	56	203	25	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		159	38	12	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	125	19	2	1	1	12	36	7	8	4	152	264	208	472	56	203	25	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		159	38	12	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	0%	126	114	23	3	1	1	9	35	2	2	0	206	280	280	560	74	287	28	7	258	61	-6	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	34%	113	101	21	3	1	1	9	31	2	2	0	210	284	294	577	83	289	27	8	265	65	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	34%	39	35	7	1	0	0	3	11	1	1	0	207	281	289	570	82	284	28	8	261	65	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	39	35	7	1	0	0	3	11	1	1	0	200	282	229	511	29	292	28	8	261	41	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	117	17	0	0	50	183	17	17	0	201	283	230	513	29	292	28	8	261	41	-27	+3	+0	+0	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	363	319	52	7	2	3	29	102	13	13	4	163	260	226	486	63	227	28	8	229	41	-6	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	94	13	4	5	52	183	23	23	7	165	262	228	489	63	230	28	8	229	41	-28	+3	+0	+0	+14	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jason Hernandez (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	204/277/278	73	287	0	1	28%	7%	61	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→32	41→40	49→50	45	190/258/293	104	259	8	12	29%	8%	57	-1.8	179/258/267	88	262	6	9	31%	9%	51	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	38	38→45	53→50	51	181/272/260	79	252	4	15	28%	10%	55	-2.0	185/255/278	93	317	6	13	40%	8%	52	-2.2	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Franklin Labour 2019 · A	21	39	38→45	49→50	45	189/262/271	82	256	4	11	26%	7%	53	-2.1	189/262/284	95	312	7	8	38%	8%	56	-1.9	153/243/273	121	268	13	9	44%	10%	46	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	39	36→40	50→55	44	186/249/258	71	249	3	12	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/271/288	84	283	7	19	28%	7%	60	-1.6	202/282/289	86	263	10	29	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Carlos Dominguez 2021 · A	21	39→26	40→45	50	39	190/272/284	94	273	6	12	31%	5%	61	-1.5	170/238/291	121	318	15	12	49%	5%	49	-2.4	137/207/253	116	269	16	13	53%	5%	27	-1.7
✕Wander Ramos 2011 · A	21	40	35→45	49→45	41	187/259/250	63	288	3	12	33%	7%	47	-2.5	209/268/347	138	312	15	8	36%	7%	73	-0.6	198/259/358	160	288	18	7	37%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Allan Cerda 2021 · A	21	43→25	40→55	47→45	44	206/283/296	90	283	7	7	28%	7%	67	-1.1	185/280/351	166	286	19	5	39%	9%	80	-0.2	159/268/326	167	242	20	5	41%	10%	67	-0.7
✕Zack Larson 2015 · A	21	46→36	39→45	52→50	40	220/273/303	84	295	6	11	27%	5%	63	-1.3	194/250/257	63	268	2	10	27%	6%	45	-2.7	169/228/214	45	235	0	12	26%	6%	26	-3.1
✕Albertson Asigen 2023 · A	21	43	35→40	56→55	50	201/277/262	60	263	2	12	23%	9%	56	-1.9	215/296/295	80	325	5	20	32%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/294	85	336	7	27	36%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	37→42	39→40	48→50	44	183/255/263	80	245	6	10	27%	7%	49	-2.4	199/291/294	95	292	8	8	32%	10%	70	-0.8	186/290/280	94	280	9	10	33%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2007 · A	21	39	38→40	45→55	39	187/243/268	81	270	4	8	31%	6%	45	-2.7	194/262/265	71	270	4	15	28%	7%	51	-2.2	186/265/247	62	244	4	22	24%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Elio Prado 2023 · A	21	43→37	36→40	46→50	48	198/289/264	65	284	4	6	29%	9%	62	-1.4	193/263/288	95	261	9	12	28%	7%	57	-1.8	178/246/269	91	241	10	14	29%	7%	44	-1.5
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	39→33	37→45	54→55	39	187/245/260	73	279	3	11	32%	6%	43	-2.8	186/260/317	131	336	16	16	46%	8%	63	-1.3	173/250/304	131	303	16	19	45%	8%	53	-1.4
✕Franklin Hernandez 2008 · A	21	39→36	36→45	47→40	38	186/238/255	69	277	4	6	33%	5%	39	-3.1	194/233/283	89	290	6	4	33%	4%	44	-2.8	183/219/273	90	269	6	2	33%	3%	33	-1.7
✕Jose Cordoba 2024 · A	21	43	40	47→55	41	208/265/304	96	287	7	9	29%	6%	61	-1.5	202/256/294	92	268	6	14	26%	5%	55	-1.9	190/244/281	91	247	7	18	25%	5%	45	-1.2
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	40	39→40	54→60	52	186/296/275	89	275	5	8	30%	12%	68	-1.0	190/293/264	74	252	5	17	24%	10%	64	-1.3	151/292/187	36	182	3	30	16%	14%	48	-0.8
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8