Luis Arias

IF FCL Nationals

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	ROKWSH	132	.293/.374/.388	2	4	55	—	.223/.282/.273
2026	21	ROKWSH	146	.233/.317/.349	4	1	14	—	.142/.207/.201
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBWSH	256	.181/.245/.262	3	4	43	-0.5
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBWSH	65	.186/.250/.274	1	1	49	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO50

Z-Con%34

Chase%25

wRC+20

Whiff%19

wOBA16

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMisael Urbina (age 22) · Francisco Del Valle (age 22) · Garrett Spain (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 122 proj PA

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .243 / .260

PA122

HR1

K%33

BB%7

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	113	99	19	6	0	0	13	27	0	5	3	192	286	253	538	61	264	24	12	253	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	132	116	34	5	0	2	13	28	2	4	0	293	374	388	762	95	368	21	10	345	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	146	129	30	3	0	4	14	51	2	1	1	233	317	349	666	116	347	35	10	303	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	113	104	14	4	0	0	8	39	0	5	3	135	196	173	370	38	214	35	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	132	121	27	3	0	1	8	41	2	4	0	223	282	273	555	50	316	31	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	146	134	19	2	0	2	9	73	2	1	1	142	207	201	408	60	278	50	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	113	104	14	4	0	0	8	39	0	5	3	135	196	173	370	38	215	35	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	113	99	19	6	0	0	13	27	0	5	3	192	286	253	538	61	264	24	12	253	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	132	121	27	3	0	1	8	41	2	4	0	223	282	273	555	50	325	31	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	132	116	34	5	0	2	13	28	2	4	0	293	374	388	762	95	368	21	10	345	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	146	134	19	2	0	2	9	73	2	1	1	142	207	201	408	60	283	50	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	146	129	30	3	0	4	14	51	2	1	1	233	317	349	666	116	347	35	10	303	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	113	104	14	4	0	0	8	39	0	5	3	135	196	173	370	38	214	35	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	132	121	27	3	0	1	8	41	2	4	0	223	282	273	555	50	316	31	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	146	134	19	2	0	2	9	73	2	1	1	142	207	201	408	60	278	50	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	113	104	14	4	0	0	8	39	0	5	3	135	196	173	370	38	214	35	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	132	121	27	3	0	1	8	41	2	4	0	223	282	273	555	50	316	31	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	146	134	19	2	0	2	9	73	2	1	1	142	207	201	408	60	278	50	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	256	235	42	7	1	3	17	84	2	4	1	181	245	262	507	81	265	33	7	232	43	-17	+0	+0	+0	+6	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	189	172	33	6	1	3	13	61	2	3	1	187	250	276	526	89	267	32	7	240	49	-12	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.7
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	65	60	11	2	0	1	4	21	1	1	0	186	250	274	524	88	267	32	6	240	49	-4	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	65	60	11	2	0	1	4	21	1	1	0	183	246	267	513	83	263	32	6	240	34	-4	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	110	20	0	10	40	210	10	10	0	183	246	267	513	83	263	32	6	240	34	-40	+2	+0	+0	+14	-2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	702	643	113	18	2	7	46	254	7	15	6	176	239	243	481	67	275	36	7	219	34	-20	+0	+0	+0	+7	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	105	17	2	6	43	235	6	14	6	176	239	242	481	66	277	36	7	219	34	-41	+0	+0	+0	+14	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Arias (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	37→42	46→51	47	180/243/260	80	265	1	2	33%	7%	43	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Misael Urbina 2024 · A	22	35→32	39→40	47→50	44	172/248/261	89	251	6	9	32%	8%	46	-2.6	189/269/280	91	269	6	9	29%	9%	58	-1.7	182/269/271	88	253	6	9	28%	10%	53	-1.1
✕Francisco Del Valle 2021 · A	22	36→29	41→45	46→40	42	178/256/281	103	266	8	5	34%	8%	54	-2.0	190/254/301	111	273	12	5	33%	7%	57	-1.8	167/234/273	106	234	13	3	33%	7%	41	-1.2
✕Garrett Spain 2023 · A	22	39→35	40→45	49→50	41	190/258/278	89	293	8	10	36%	8%	53	-2.1	174/237/283	109	258	11	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	162/228/283	121	225	15	14	34%	7%	41	-2.3
✕Daury Arias 2024 · A	22	38	40	50→45	48	188/270/276	88	252	8	9	27%	9%	58	-1.7	184/252/266	82	279	6	9	34%	7%	48	-2.5	118/186/167	49	192	4	10	38%	6%	-1	-2.0
✕Brandon Dulin 2015 · A	22	36→29	41→45	51→40	35	182/231/281	100	256	9	7	32%	4%	43	-2.8	192/240/307	115	270	13	4	33%	5%	53	-2.1	182/233/302	120	252	15	1	33%	5%	47	-1.5
✕D.J. Wilson 2019 · A	22	38	41→50	50	39	185/243/283	99	282	8	13	36%	7%	48	-2.5	183/250/280	97	308	9	14	40%	8%	51	-2.3	104/190/192	88	178	12	21	47%	9%	9	-1.5
✕Luis Mendez 2024 · A	21	38	38→40	47→50	43	182/254/259	77	275	6	10	34%	8%	47	-2.5	193/255/274	81	270	5	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	187/247/263	77	253	5	13	27%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Mitchell Hansen 2018 · A	22	40→36	44→45	51→50	39	200/248/314	114	280	11	10	32%	6%	57	-1.8	194/243/294	100	292	8	9	34%	6%	51	-2.3	160/203/246	86	252	4	8	37%	4%	22	-1.9
✕Andry Arias 2021 · A	21	38	39→40	51→40	42	186/255/269	83	272	6	8	32%	8%	50	-2.3	190/255/289	99	292	8	6	35%	7%	55	-2.0	163/234/264	101	246	9	3	35%	7%	39	-1.0
✕Cody Morissette 2022 · A	22	41→31	39→45	43→55	44	196/265/283	87	287	6	5	32%	8%	57	-1.8	189/245/312	123	251	14	7	30%	6%	56	-1.9	184/241/305	121	240	14	19	29%	6%	51	-1.4
✕Leandro Emiliani 2022 · A	22	37	42→45	46→30	40	182/258/281	99	292	10	4	39%	8%	54	-2.0	184/245/292	108	284	10	3	37%	7%	51	-2.2	169/231/276	107	257	11	1	37%	6%	41	-1.6
✕Richard D Oleo 2008 · A	22	39	39→40	49→45	41	188/246/275	87	281	6	6	34%	7%	47	-2.5	193/253/279	86	269	7	8	29%	7%	51	-2.3	153/221/228	75	198	7	10	26%	8%	26	-1.3
✕Cole Roederer 2022 · A	22	42→33	40→45	50	44	200/275/295	95	300	7	13	34%	8%	63	-1.3	203/269/320	117	297	12	11	34%	7%	67	-1.1	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Jordan Viars 2024 · A	21	39	40	48→45	39	189/262/280	91	285	8	7	35%	6%	56	-1.9	179/246/285	106	305	11	5	42%	6%	51	-2.3	145/215/250	105	253	13	2	46%	7%	30	-1.5
✕Jose Medina 2017 · A	22	39	41→45	48→45	38	193/240/299	106	262	8	6	29%	5%	51	-2.3	204/256/314	110	286	11	4	31%	6%	60	-1.6	200/256/307	107	270	12	1	29%	6%	55	-0.8
✕Jacob Pearson 2019 · A	21	39	39→40	45→50	40	192/245/278	86	270	7	8	31%	6%	47	-2.5	194/249/286	92	266	7	11	28%	7%	51	-2.3	165/232/259	94	229	8	19	30%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Tyler Frost 2018 · A	22	41→33	42→50	54→50	39	204/256/317	114	282	9	6	30%	6%	61	-1.5	185/242/305	120	297	13	7	40%	6%	53	-2.1	168/227/287	119	273	13	7	42%	6%	41	-2.3
✕Jhon Diaz 2024 · A	21	37→26	40→45	49→50	39	181/241/278	97	288	6	11	38%	7%	46	-2.6	174/225/289	115	248	13	16	34%	6%	43	-2.8	154/204/269	115	207	15	17	34%	5%	28	-2.5
✕Walking Cabrera 2023 · A	22	39→37	41→45	48→45	40	192/249/294	102	277	8	8	32%	7%	53	-2.1	208/259/320	112	312	12	9	35%	6%	63	-1.4	200/248/316	117	298	15	10	37%	5%	57	-0.9
✕Stephen Paolini 2023 · A	22	36→37	38→40	48→50	38	168/243/244	76	305	6	12	43%	8%	40	-3.1	175/243/260	85	316	8	17	43%	7%	43	-2.8	156/223/237	80	283	8	23	45%	7%	29	-1.8