Case Matter

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ADown East Woo…	12	0	13	1.42	3.57	30.0%	23.3%	—	K 22.2% · BB 27.5% · FIP 4.71
2025	23	A+TEX	6	0	6	15.00	5.43	31.2%	21.9%	—	K 31.2% · BB 21.9% · FIP 4.95
2026	24	MIX2 levels	31	1	35	7.79	5.03	29.5%	17.5%	—	K 22.7% · BB 18.2% · FIP 6.45
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	15	0	16	5.41	5.41	22.9%	16.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBTEX	12	0	13	5.29	5.28	23.2%	15.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsZane Russell (age 24) · Maikel Cleto (age 25) · CJ Weins (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%22.9%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	11	4	0	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	9.1%	3.00	5.02	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	11	4	0	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	9.1%	3.00	4.77	—
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	12	0	13	60	18	14	0	0%	1.1	22.2%	27.5%	-5.3%	0.0%	1.42	4.71	—
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	12	0	13	60	18	14	0	0%	1.1	22.2%	27.5%	-5.3%	0.0%	1.42	4.71	—
2024	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	12	0	13	60	18	14	0	0%	1.1	30.0%	23.3%	6.7%	0.0%	1.42	3.57	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	6	0	6	32	10	7	1	0%	1.0	31.2%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%	15.00	4.95	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	6	0	6	32	10	7	1	0%	1.0	31.2%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%	15.00	4.95	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	6	0	6	32	10	7	1	0%	1.0	31.2%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%	15.00	5.43	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	35	166	49	29	6	3%	1.1	22.7%	18.2%	4.5%	5.4%	7.79	6.45	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	35	166	49	29	6	3%	1.1	22.7%	18.2%	4.5%	5.4%	7.79	6.45	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	35	166	49	29	6	3%	1.1	29.5%	17.5%	12.0%	3.6%	7.79	5.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	15	0	16	68	16	11	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	16.5%	6.5%	3.2%	5.41	5.41	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	30	0	31	132	31	21	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	15.7%	7.5%	3.2%	5.29	5.28	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	12	0	13	55	13	9	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	15.7%	7.5%	3.2%	5.29	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	57	13	9	2	0%	1.0	23.2%	15.7%	7.5%	3.2%	5.29	4.90	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	134	30	0%	1.1	23.2%	15.7%	7.5%	3.2%	5.29	4.90	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		52	1	56	269	65	54	11	2%	1.1	24.2%	20.0%	4.2%	4.1%	6.87	5.82	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		185	4	200	955	231	191	39	2%	1.1	24.2%	20.0%	4.2%	4.1%	6.87	5.82	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Case Matter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	22.9%	16.5%	3.2%	—	5.28	23.2%	7.5%	31	-0.13	—	—	—
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	88
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	88
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	85
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	84
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	84
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	83
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	83
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	82
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	82
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	82
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	81
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	81