Case Matter
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%23.4%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP8
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 36.4% | 9.1% | 3.00 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 36.4% | 9.1% | 3.00 | 4.77 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 12 | 0 | 13 | 60 | 18 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 27.5% | -5.3% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 4.71 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 12 | 0 | 13 | 60 | 18 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 23.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 21.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 15.00 | 4.95 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.2% | 21.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 15.00 | 5.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 19 | 0 | 20 | 102 | 28 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 21.5% | -0.9% | 5.0% | 9.74 | 6.83 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.39 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 28 | 134 | 35 | 24 | 4 | — | — | 26.5% | 18.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 8.30 | 6.17 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.4% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.01 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 69 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 0 | 42 | 205 | 48 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 22.2% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 7.50 | 5.82 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 976 | 230 | 216 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 22.2% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 7.50 | 5.82 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Case Matter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.29 | 23.7% | 14.2% | 20 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 89 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 87 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 86 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 85 |
| Zach Franklin R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 85 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 85 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 84 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 84 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 84 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 84 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 83 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 83 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 83 |
| Jarod Bayless R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.76 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.46 | 20.7% | 13.1% | 100 | +0.70 | 1.29 | 248 | 82 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 82 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .270 | 4.55 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 197 | 82 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 82 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 82 |
| Jackson McClelland R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.94 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .253 | 5.53 | 17.0% | 2.6% | 83 | +1.59 | 3.02 | 174 | 82 |