Case Matter — OGILVIE

Case Matter P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%23.2%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	11	4	0	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	9.1%	3.00	5.02	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	11	4	0	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	9.1%	3.00	5.02	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	11	4	0	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	9.1%	3.00	4.77	—
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	12	0	13	60	18	14	0	0%	1.1	22.2%	27.5%	-5.3%	0.0%	1.42	4.71	—
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	12	0	13	60	18	14	0	0%	1.1	22.2%	27.5%	-5.3%	0.0%	1.42	4.71	—
2024	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	12	0	13	60	18	14	0	0%	1.1	30.0%	23.3%	6.7%	0.0%	1.42	3.57	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	6	0	6	32	10	7	1	0%	1.0	31.2%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%	15.00	4.95	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	6	0	6	32	10	7	1	0%	1.0	31.2%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%	15.00	4.95	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	6	0	6	32	10	7	1	0%	1.0	31.2%	21.9%	9.4%	3.1%	15.00	5.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	31	1	35	166	49	29	6	3%	1.1	22.7%	18.2%	4.5%	5.4%	7.79	6.45	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	31	1	35	166	49	29	6	3%	1.1	22.7%	18.2%	4.5%	5.4%	7.79	6.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	TEX	5	0	5	27	8	7	0	0%	1.1	29.6%	25.9%	3.7%	0.0%	11.81	3.88	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	TEX	26	1	29	139	41	22	6	4%	1.1	29.5%	15.8%	13.7%	4.3%	7.06	4.98	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	33	0	34	145	34	21	4	0%	1.0	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.99	4.90	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	14	0	15	63	15	9	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.99	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	62	15	9	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.99	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	122	27	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.99	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		52	1	56	269	65	54	11	2%	1.1	24.2%	20.0%	4.2%	4.1%	6.87	5.82	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		185	4	200	955	231	191	39	2%	1.1	24.2%	20.0%	4.2%	4.1%	6.87	5.82	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Case Matter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	23.2%	16.3%	2.9%	—	4.90	23.6%	9.4%	34	-0.31	—	—	—
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	84
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	84
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Walker Brockhouse R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SU	4.24	21.7%	16.7%	1.6%	.301	5.15	18.7%	4.0%	42	+0.91	4.24	126	83
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	82
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	82
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	82
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	81
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	81
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	81
Bryce McGowan R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	23	SU	4.41	23.4%	16.0%	2.3%	.327	4.33	19.2%	6.2%	99	-0.08	3.71	178	81
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	81
David Garner R 2017 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	21.5%	13.8%	3.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	154	80