Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 43 | 0 | 57 | 246 | 75 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 2.53 | 5.08 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 43 | 0 | 57 | 246 | 75 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.5% | 11.8% | 18.7% | 2.0% | 2.53 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 20 | 0 | 22 | 90 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.4% | 8.2% | 26.2% | 0.0% | 2.01 | 1.24 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 64 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.91 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 90 | 374 | 97 | 47 | 10 | — | — | 26.1% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 3.99 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.7% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 66 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 75 | 316 | 74 | 37 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.29 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 99 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 79 | 336 | 86 | 42 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 2.38 | 4.05 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 218 | 105 | 24 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 2.38 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Veach (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.68 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 136 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 94 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 92 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 92 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 91 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 91 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 89 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 88 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 87 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 87 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 87 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 87 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.79 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 3.4% | .301 | 4.05 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 37 | -0.74 | 3.85 | 132 | 87 |
| Zach Jackson R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.01 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .261 | 2.43 | 33.6% | 19.6% | 76 | -2.58 | 2.37 | 309 | 86 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 86 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 86 |
| Jay Driver R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 135 | 86 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 86 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 86 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 20.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .298 | 3.84 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 90 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 186 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.19 | 4.78 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |