Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 13 | 12 | 56 | 257 | 43 | 25 | 6 | 92% | 4.3 | 12.4% | 11.5% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 7.23 | 5.47 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 13 | 12 | 56 | 257 | 43 | 25 | 6 | 92% | 4.3 | 16.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 7.23 | 4.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 15 | 5 | 53 | 233 | 54 | 28 | 6 | 33% | 3.5 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 30 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.6% | 13.3% | -1.8% | 3.1% | 5.88 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.6% | 13.3% | -1.8% | 3.1% | 5.88 | 5.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 114 | 493 | 84 | 63 | 14 | — | — | 17.1% | 12.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.38 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 63 | 266 | 38 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.2% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.60 | 5.52 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 64 | 270 | 43 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 7.1 | 15.9% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.39 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 64 | 270 | 45 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 7.1 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.26 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 63 | 266 | 45 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 7.0 | 16.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 61 | 258 | 43 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.8 | 16.8% | 11.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 6.8 | 14.2% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.60 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 42 | 177 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 7.0 | 15.9% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.39 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 51 | 215 | 36 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 7.3 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.26 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 54 | 228 | 39 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.8 | 16.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 54 | 228 | 38 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.8 | 16.8% | 11.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 33 | 228 | 962 | 157 | 115 | 30 | 100% | 6.9 | 16.3% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 4.91 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 29 | 29 | 200 | 844 | 138 | 101 | 26 | 100% | 6.9 | 16.3% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 4.91 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 17 | 109 | 490 | 72 | 63 | 17 | 61% | 3.9 | 14.6% | 12.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.05 | 5.38 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 31 | 200 | 902 | 132 | 115 | 31 | 61% | 3.9 | 14.6% | 12.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.05 | 5.38 | +0.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Frank (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.88 | 11.6% | 13.3% | 3.1% | — | 5.35 | 15.6% | 3.6% | 191 | -0.53 | — | — | — |
| Ian Clarkin L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.42 | 9.3% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .290 | 5.84 | 8.1% | -4.9% | 82 | +0.42 | 3.92 | 335 | 82 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 79 |
| Bryce Hubbart L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.10 | 15.5% | 13.8% | 2.8% | .313 | 4.90 | 19.3% | 6.1% | 68 | -0.20 | 4.73 | 181 | 79 |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .322 | 4.80 | 14.7% | 0.1% | 130 | +0.11 | 4.62 | 195 | 77 |
| Evan Grills L 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.51 | 13.0% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .335 | 3.80 | 16.1% | 11.6% | 221 | -1.71 | 3.24 | 309 | 76 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.62 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 24 | -1.12 | 3.62 | 125 | 75 |
| Jaime Arias L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .332 | 5.63 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.72 | 4.52 | 243 | 74 |
| Drake Britton L 2029 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 73 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.93 | 9.6% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.20 | 13.7% | 4.9% | 122 | -1.73 | 4.20 | 218 | 73 |
| Garrett Williams L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.24 | 14.5% | 16.2% | 2.4% | .335 | 4.43 | 19.3% | 4.5% | 162 | -0.81 | 3.36 | 470 | 72 |
| Julian Smith L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.79 | 14.5% | 17.4% | 1.3% | .399 | 5.33 | 17.9% | 5.8% | 110 | +0.54 | 2.87 | 189 | 72 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 72 |
| Gabriel Noguera L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 3.5% | .310 | 7.74 | 19.1% | -8.6% | 27 | +2.40 | 4.41 | 174 | 71 |
| Shane Dawson L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.50 | 9.8% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 373 | 71 |
| Matt Imhof L 2025 · 5.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.73 | 15.9% | 21.3% | 2.3% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.99 | 131 | 71 |
| Colin Rodgers L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.2% | 11.9% | 3.1% | .320 | 4.49 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 68 | -0.48 | 3.99 | 313 | 71 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.86 | 13.6% | 16.7% | 3.3% | .209 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 128 | 71 |
| Wilkin Paredes L 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.98 | 13.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 294 | 70 |
| Carson Dorsey L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.47 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 107 | 69 |
| Jake Zokan L 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.12 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.80 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.32 | 1.80 | 120 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 15.4% | 12.2% | 1.19 | 5.44 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |