Luke Johnson
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.3%
IP70
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 10 | 70 | 287 | 60 | 21 | 2 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 0.9% | 3.34 | 3.47 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 2 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 75 | 326 | 67 | 31 | 10 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 4.04 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 66 | 26 | 8 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 66 | 26 | 8 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 66 | 26 | 8 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 58 | 25 | 8 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 55 | 24 | 8 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 48 | 23 | 8 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 10 | 75 | 317 | 46 | 31 | 5 | 14.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | 4.06 | 3.88 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 27 | 200 | 842 | 122 | 82 | 13 | 14.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | 4.06 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.27 | 22.1% | 13.3% | 212 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 96 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 94 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 93 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 91 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 91 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 91 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 90 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 90 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 90 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .353 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.72 | 4.04 | 106 | 90 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 90 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.16 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.57 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.41 | 3.16 | 153 | 89 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 89 |
| Tyler Joyner R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .250 | 6.54 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 37 | +2.83 | 3.71 | 114 | 89 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 89 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 88 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 17.8% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .295 | 3.25 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 190 | -1.00 | 2.79 | 280 | 88 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.90 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.05 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 171 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$5M | ||