Luke Johnson
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 49 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%21.3%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 10 | 70 | 287 | 60 | 21 | 2 | 45% | 3.2 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 0.8% | 3.34 | 3.45 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 10 | 70 | 287 | 60 | 21 | 2 | 45% | 3.2 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 13.6% | 0.7% | 3.34 | 2.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 17 | 3 | 58 | 260 | 60 | 24 | 4 | 18% | 3.4 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 3.57 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 107 | 467 | 104 | 43 | 10 | — | — | 22.3% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 4.23 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 47 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 86 | 34 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.90 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 74 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 13 | 128 | 547 | 87 | 54 | 8 | 33% | 3.3 | 15.8% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 3.45 | 3.78 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 20 | 200 | 855 | 135 | 84 | 12 | 33% | 3.3 | 15.8% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 3.45 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.28 | 22.1% | 13.3% | 148 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 87 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 87 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 85 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 83 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 82 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 81 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 80 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 80 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 80 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 80 |
| Darien Smith R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.47 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .253 | 4.67 | 19.0% | 6.1% | 32 | +1.20 | 3.47 | 102 | 79 |
| Connor Schultz R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .283 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 124 | -0.19 | 3.47 | 171 | 79 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 79 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 79 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 79 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 78 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 78 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 77 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 77 |
| Alex Valverde R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .321 | 6.00 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 166 | +2.28 | 3.72 | 423 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 1.09 | 4.31 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |