Luke Johnson — OGILVIE

Luke Johnson P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 50 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%18.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	10	70	287	60	21	2	45%	3.2	14.7%	9.0%	5.8%	0.9%	3.34	3.47	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	10	70	287	60	21	2	45%	3.2	14.7%	9.0%	5.8%	0.9%	3.34	3.47	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	10	70	287	60	21	2	45%	3.2	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	0.7%	3.34	2.66	—
2026	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	4	72	315	74	26	5	18%	3.3	17.4%	9.7%	7.6%	2.1%	3.36	4.00	—
2026	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	4	72	315	74	26	5	18%	3.3	17.4%	9.7%	7.6%	2.1%	3.36	4.00	—
2026	24	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	4	72	315	74	26	5	18%	3.3	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	1.6%	3.36	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	48	0	50	211	38	20	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.5%	8.6%	2.8%	4.67	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	275	53	26	8	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	2.8%	4.60	4.58	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	271	53	26	8	0%	1.1	19.5%	9.5%	10.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	27	0	28	118	23	11	3	0%	1.0	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	2.8%	4.60	4.58	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	38	0	40	169	33	16	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	9.5%	10.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	0	68	287	56	27	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	2.8%	4.59	4.21	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	79	24	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	2.8%	4.59	4.21	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		44	14	142	602	97	56	9	32%	3.2	16.1%	9.4%	6.7%	1.5%	3.35	3.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	20	200	846	136	79	13	32%	3.2	16.1%	9.4%	6.7%	1.5%	3.35	3.75	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	18.1%	9.5%	2.8%	—	4.59	19.4%	10.0%	129	-0.08	—	—	—
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	90
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	89
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	87
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	87
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	85
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	84
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	83
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	83
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	83
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	81
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	81
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	81
Ryan Drese R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	25	SW	3.58	16.1%	8.7%	1.3%	.273	4.20	12.8%	5.2%	391	+0.62	3.58	557	80
Corey Baker R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	4.97	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.20	3.06	267	79
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	79
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	19.0%	9.4%	1.09	4.62
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Brad Clontz ('00)	1.4	56	17.4%	9.9%	0.97	4.34
Logan Ondrusek ('16)	1.4	55	18.1%	9.5%	1.14	4.03
Vinnie Chulk ('12)	1.4	57	16.0%	9.0%	0.98	4.51
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22