Parker Smith

P Asheville Tourists

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	18	14	68	3.16	2.57	21.6%	10.3%	—	K 16.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.22
2026	23	A+HOU	23	22	98	6.89	4.37	15.9%	9.2%	—	K 12.3% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.04
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	12	12	67	5.48	5.48	13.0%	12.2%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBHOU	6	6	38	5.26	5.20	15.3%	11.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBHOU	10	10	59	5.10	5.05	16.6%	11.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff46Control46Command35FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsCharlie Morton (age 24) · Ike Buxton (age 24) · Patrick McGuff (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%13.0%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3545

CTRL4045

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	68	291	63	30	0	78%	3.8	16.0%	11.6%	4.4%	0.0%	3.16	3.22	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	68	291	63	30	0	78%	3.8	16.0%	11.6%	4.4%	0.0%	3.16	3.22	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	68	291	63	30	0	78%	3.8	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	0.0%	3.16	2.57	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	22	98	465	74	43	11	96%	4.3	12.3%	10.6%	1.6%	3.0%	6.89	5.04	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	22	98	465	74	43	11	96%	4.3	12.3%	10.6%	1.6%	3.0%	6.89	5.04	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	23	22	98	465	74	43	11	96%	4.3	15.9%	9.2%	6.7%	2.4%	6.89	4.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	12	12	67	283	37	34	8	100%	5.6	13.0%	12.2%	0.9%	2.8%	5.48	5.48	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	377	58	43	11	100%	6.0	15.3%	11.4%	3.9%	2.8%	5.26	5.20	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	377	63	42	11	100%	6.0	16.6%	11.1%	5.5%	2.9%	5.10	5.05	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	88	372	63	41	11	100%	5.9	16.9%	11.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.05	5.05	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	361	61	40	11	100%	6.1	16.9%	11.1%	5.8%	3.0%	5.08	5.11	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	82	345	57	39	11	100%	5.8	16.6%	11.3%	5.3%	3.2%	5.18	5.24	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	77	324	59	35	11	100%	5.9	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	3.4%	5.16	5.15	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	38	160	24	18	5	100%	6.3	15.3%	11.4%	3.9%	2.8%	5.26	5.20	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	41	28	7	100%	5.9	16.6%	11.1%	5.5%	2.9%	5.10	5.05	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	68	287	48	32	8	100%	6.2	16.9%	11.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	72	304	51	34	9	100%	6.0	16.9%	11.1%	5.8%	3.0%	5.08	5.11	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	71	300	50	34	9	100%	5.9	16.6%	11.3%	5.3%	3.2%	5.18	5.24	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	69	291	53	31	10	100%	5.8	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	3.4%	5.16	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	378	1596	269	177	49	100%	6.0	16.9%	11.1%	5.8%	3.0%	5.13	4.75	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	142	94	26	100%	6.0	16.9%	11.1%	5.8%	3.0%	5.13	4.75	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		41	36	166	756	103	83	14	88%	4.1	13.7%	11.0%	2.7%	1.8%	5.36	4.34	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	909	124	100	17	88%	4.1	13.7%	11.0%	2.7%	1.8%	5.36	4.34	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	13.0%	12.2%	2.8%	—	5.10	16.2%	5.1%	267	-0.38	—	—	—
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	87
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	85
Patrick McGuff R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	12.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	133	85
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	84
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	84
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	84
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	83
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	83
James Proctor R 2022 · 4.39 FIP	24	SP	4.39	14.0%	12.5%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	109	83
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.22	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.02	3.57	306	83
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	82
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	82
Ben Anderson R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP	4.59	13.0%	12.0%	1.9%	.270	4.31	14.4%	6.0%	217	-0.28	3.80	399	82
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	82
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	82
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	82
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	82
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	81
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	82	16.3%	11.2%	1.16	5.18
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Vince Colbert ('70-'72, -1 WAR*)	1.2	83	15.7%*	11.0%*	1.17*	5.33*
Renie Martin ('79-'84, -3 WAR*)	2.5	85	15.7%*	11.6%*	1.29*	4.84*
Bob McGraw ('17-'29, -2 WAR*)	3.0	99	16.8%*	11.0%*	1.21*	5.01*
Dustin Nippert ('10)	1.3	67	17.6%	11.2%	1.18	5.31
Victor Santos ('07)	3.0	86	15.6%	10.2%	1.29	5.21