Rafael Castillo — OGILVIE

Rafael CastilloIF DSL Miami

Age 20 S/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .276 / .280

PA5

HR0

K%31

BB%9

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	78	58	11	2	0	0	19	24	1	3	0	190	397	224	622	34	324	31	24	317	100	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	141	106	23	3	1	0	31	42	3	9	2	217	407	264	671	47	354	30	22	330	109	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.6
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	57	47	11	3	1	1	7	11	1	2	1	234	345	404	750	170	270	19	12	326	107	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	78	65	8	1	0	0	12	34	1	3	0	123	269	138	408	15	267	44	15	211	29	-7	+1	—	—	+2	-0.4
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	141	118	18	2	1	0	19	60	3	9	2	153	286	186	472	34	295	43	13	227	40	-10	+1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	57	50	9	2	1	1	4	15	1	2	1	180	255	320	575	140	208	26	7	235	45	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	78	65	8	1	0	0	12	34	1	3	0	123	269	138	408	15	258	44	15	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	78	58	11	2	0	0	19	24	1	3	0	190	397	224	622	34	324	31	24	317	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	141	118	18	2	1	0	19	60	3	9	2	153	286	186	472	34	305	43	13	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	141	106	23	3	1	0	31	42	3	9	2	217	407	264	671	47	354	30	22	330	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	57	50	9	2	1	1	4	15	1	2	1	180	255	320	575	140	222	26	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	57	47	11	3	1	1	7	11	1	2	1	234	345	404	750	170	270	19	12	326	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	78	65	8	1	0	0	12	34	1	3	0	123	269	138	408	15	267	44	15	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	141	118	18	2	1	0	19	60	3	9	2	153	286	186	472	34	295	43	13	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	57	52	9	2	1	1	4	15	1	2	1	173	255	308	562	135	208	26	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	78	65	8	1	0	0	12	34	1	3	0	123	269	138	408	15	267	44	15	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	141	118	18	2	1	0	19	60	3	9	2	153	286	186	472	34	295	43	13	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	57	52	9	2	1	1	4	15	1	2	1	173	255	308	562	135	208	26	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		288	40	0	258	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	148	132	28	5	1	2	13	44	2	2	1	212	293	311	603	98	290	30	9	271	69	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	285	255	54	9	2	5	25	82	3	5	1	212	290	322	611	110	291	29	9	279	75	-8	+1	+0	+0	+6	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	381	340	74	13	3	7	34	108	4	6	1	218	296	335	632	118	292	28	9	285	79	-10	+1	+0	+0	+8	-0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	447	399	87	15	3	9	40	126	5	7	2	218	297	338	636	120	293	28	9	289	82	-10	+1	+0	+0	+10	0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	485	433	94	16	3	10	43	137	6	8	2	217	297	337	634	120	293	28	9	291	83	-10	+1	+0	+0	+11	0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	507	451	99	17	3	11	45	143	6	8	2	220	299	344	642	124	293	28	9	292	84	-10	+1	+0	+0	+11	0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	517	459	101	17	3	12	47	146	6	9	2	220	301	349	649	129	293	28	9	293	84	-10	+1	+0	+0	+11	0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	518	460	100	17	3	11	47	147	6	8	2	217	298	339	637	122	292	28	9	292	83	-10	+1	-1	+0	+11	0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	512	454	99	17	3	11	47	146	6	7	2	218	300	341	641	123	291	29	9	290	82	-11	+1	-1	+0	+11	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	51	46	10	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	217	294	326	620	109	282	29	8	256	69	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	138	123	25	4	1	2	12	40	2	2	1	203	285	301	585	98	283	29	9	264	75	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	207	185	38	6	1	4	18	59	2	3	1	205	283	314	596	108	284	29	9	270	79	-5	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	248	221	48	8	2	5	22	70	3	4	1	217	297	339	636	122	285	28	9	274	82	-5	+0	+0	+0	+5	0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	272	243	52	8	2	6	24	77	3	5	1	214	293	337	630	123	285	28	9	276	83	-5	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	285	255	55	9	2	6	25	80	3	5	1	216	293	337	631	122	285	28	9	277	84	-5	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	286	255	55	9	2	6	26	81	3	5	1	216	296	337	633	122	285	28	9	277	84	-5	+1	+0	+0	+6	0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	284	253	54	9	2	6	26	81	3	4	1	213	294	336	630	123	284	29	9	276	83	-6	+0	-0	+0	+6	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	274	244	52	8	2	6	25	78	3	4	1	213	294	336	630	123	283	28	9	274	82	-6	+0	-1	+0	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2045	1825	389	63	14	42	182	581	23	33	8	213	293	332	625	119	287	28	9	274	79	-44	+3	-1	+0	+44	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	123	20	4	13	58	185	7	10	3	212	291	328	619	116	286	28	9	274	79	-14	+1	-0	+0	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4081	3621	772	131	26	79	376	1190	49	74	18	213	296	329	625	116	292	29	9	284	79	-84	+6	-2	+0	+82	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	123	21	4	13	60	190	8	12	3	213	297	331	628	118	291	29	9	284	79	-14	+1	-0	+0	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.2	2,103	44	34	219	295	341	+0	+0	1.6	1.6
/162	664	14	11	+0.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Castillo (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	198/276/280	82	288	1	1	31%	9%	61	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→47	41→50	50	44	203/259/304	102	267	7	10	26%	7%	59	-1.7	221/283/344	123	281	11	10	24%	7%	77	-0.3	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→44	40→45	54→50	40	185/249/285	100	275	6	9	34%	7%	51	-2.2	203/274/314	111	281	9	13	29%	8%	68	-1.0	202/276/313	110	274	9	14	28%	9%	65	-1.0
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→47	39→50	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	61	-1.5	217/292/295	78	287	5	17	24%	8%	70	-0.9	227/300/346	119	306	11	20	28%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	197/265/289	92	278	8	16	30%	8%	58	-1.7	238/299/342	104	319	7	24	25%	8%	82	+0.0	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Nomar Fana 2023 · A	20	40	39→50	46→50	40	188/253/277	89	309	6	11	39%	8%	51	-2.3	189/266/296	107	304	11	12	38%	9%	60	-1.6	161/250/268	106	257	13	14	40%	10%	47	-0.9
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→44	39→45	53→50	43	195/254/284	89	269	5	13	28%	7%	53	-2.1	216/286/322	106	302	9	13	29%	9%	74	-0.6	216/290/325	109	297	11	14	29%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	53	-2.1	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	71	-0.8	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Juan Silva 2011 · A	20	40→46	39→45	52→55	40	190/249/284	95	293	5	8	35%	7%	50	-2.3	212/282/311	99	311	8	13	32%	9%	70	-0.9	229/311/332	104	311	8	29	27%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	41	195/245/269	75	266	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	236/283/325	89	313	8	10	26%	6%	72	-0.7	247/301/337	90	312	4	24	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Stanley Martinez 2017 · A	20	40	38→45	48→50	45	192/266/269	77	269	5	10	29%	8%	54	-2.0	216/284/317	101	292	9	7	27%	7%	72	-0.7	213/282/313	100	281	9	5	26%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	65	-1.2	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	72	-0.7	244/312/343	100	289	8	16	17%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Riley Unroe 2016 · A	20	43→48	36→45	44→55	44	205/262/267	62	280	4	8	27%	7%	51	-2.2	194/260/260	66	281	4	12	30%	8%	49	-2.4	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2022 · A	20	44	40→55	52→50	40	212/257/310	97	289	6	9	28%	5%	59	-1.7	208/259/315	107	277	10	9	27%	6%	61	-1.5	228/287/392	163	266	21	11	23%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Herman Armas 2007 · A	20	41	40→45	47→50	40	198/265/294	96	288	7	11	32%	6%	59	-1.6	218/287/329	111	286	11	9	26%	7%	76	-0.4	218/293/335	117	266	14	9	23%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→41	42→50	53→55	44	186/268/288	102	275	10	11	34%	9%	60	-1.6	201/285/320	119	319	11	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→40	41→45	48→50	41	200/267/299	99	282	9	10	31%	6%	61	-1.5	203/296/305	102	299	9	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	186/292/283	98	277	9	10	33%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Yonki Hernandez 2011 · A	20	40	37→40	49→55	47	184/285/247	64	286	5	13	34%	10%	58	-1.7	192/272/262	70	296	4	18	33%	8%	55	-2.0	184/265/243	59	280	2	24	32%	8%	46	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps