Rafael Castillo — OGILVIE

Rafael CastilloIF DSL Miami

Age 20 S/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .277 / .279

PA59

HR1

K%31

BB%9

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	78	65	8	1	0	0	12	34	1	3	0	123	269	138	408	15	258	44	15	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	78	58	11	2	0	0	19	24	1	3	0	190	397	224	622	34	324	31	24	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	141	118	19	2	1	0	19	60	3	9	2	161	293	195	488	34	322	43	13	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	141	106	23	3	1	0	31	42	3	9	2	217	407	264	671	47	354	30	22	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	57	49	8	2	1	0	5	15	1	2	1	163	255	245	499	82	222	26	9	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	57	47	11	3	1	1	7	11	1	2	1	234	345	404	750	170	270	19	12	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIA	—	59	53	11	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	208	288	302	590	94	288	31	8	258	56	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	148	132	28	5	1	2	13	44	2	2	1	212	293	311	603	98	290	30	9	271	65	-6	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	285	255	54	9	2	5	25	82	3	5	1	212	290	322	611	110	291	29	9	279	72	-9	+1	+0	+0	+8	-0.0
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	51	45	10	2	0	1	5	15	1	1	0	222	314	333	647	111	285	29	10	259	56	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	138	123	25	4	1	2	12	40	2	2	1	203	285	301	585	98	286	29	9	267	63	-6	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	189	168	35	6	1	3	17	55	3	3	1	208	293	310	602	101	288	29	9	265	61	-8	+0	+0	+0	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	120	21	3	10	58	189	10	10	3	208	291	306	597	99	288	29	9	265	61	-29	+1	+0	+0	+18	-1.0
Career	—			—	768	672	128	21	5	8	79	253	11	22	5	190	286	272	558	82	288	33	10	257	55	-39	+2	+0	+0	+22	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	109	18	4	7	67	214	9	19	4	192	287	274	561	83	290	33	10	257	55	-33	+2	+0	+0	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	78	58	11	2	0	0	19	24	1	3	0	190	397	224	622	34	324	31	24	317	101	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	141	106	23	3	1	0	31	42	3	9	2	217	407	264	671	47	354	30	22	330	111	+2	+1	—	—	+4	0.7
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	57	47	11	3	1	1	7	11	1	2	1	234	345	404	750	170	270	19	12	326	108	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	248	4	4	209	286	310	+0	+0	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	10	11	209	286	310	+0.0	+0.0	-0.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Castillo (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	198/277/279	81	288	1	1	31%	9%	56	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nomar Fana 2023 · A	20	39	39→50	46→50	39	185/249/273	88	303	6	11	39%	8%	41	-2.3	189/264/297	108	304	12	12	38%	9%	55	-1.4	163/251/273	110	258	14	14	40%	10%	42	-0.8
✕Nerwilian Cedeño 2022 · A	20	40→32	40→45	51→50	44	189/267/287	97	296	6	7	36%	9%	53	-1.5	190/262/303	113	294	11	12	36%	8%	56	-1.3	173/244/282	109	262	12	12	37%	8%	40	-1.4
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→43	40→45	54→55	39	184/247/283	100	276	6	9	34%	6%	43	-2.2	200/271/309	109	281	9	13	30%	8%	60	-1.0	198/272/305	108	273	9	14	29%	9%	57	-1.0
✕Yonki Hernandez 2011 · A	20	40	37→40	49→55	47	184/285/247	64	286	5	13	34%	10%	53	-1.5	192/272/262	70	296	4	18	33%	8%	49	-1.8	184/265/243	59	280	2	24	32%	8%	39	-0.8
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	41→42	39→45	53→50	42	196/255/285	89	270	5	13	28%	7%	46	-2.0	211/283/320	109	300	10	13	30%	9%	69	-0.4	209/285/321	112	292	12	14	30%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→28	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	43	-2.2	211/277/317	106	330	9	15	36%	7%	64	-0.8	193/256/311	118	287	12	16	35%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Alan Schoenberger 2009 · A	20	39	36→45	46→45	43	184/249/253	69	277	2	6	32%	8%	37	-2.7	196/250/284	88	297	6	7	34%	6%	44	-2.1	188/236/280	92	275	7	5	33%	5%	34	-1.4
✕Robel García 2013 · A	20	36→37	40→50	48→40	40	177/241/272	95	268	7	6	35%	7%	38	-2.6	189/257/279	90	284	6	6	33%	8%	46	-2.0	192/262/383	192	272	27	2	39%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Raymel Flores 2015 · A	20	39	36→45	49→50	42	182/261/255	73	288	2	10	34%	8%	43	-2.2	200/253/278	78	302	6	10	33%	6%	43	-2.2	189/241/254	65	287	4	11	34%	5%	29	-1.2
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	39	-2.5	203/261/310	107	295	9	6	32%	7%	56	-1.3	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Leandro Pineda 2022 · A	20	35→39	37→45	43→45	46	171/257/239	68	251	4	7	31%	9%	37	-2.6	189/260/297	108	280	9	5	33%	7%	53	-1.5	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	40	37→40	50→55	42	191/251/266	76	262	4	12	28%	6%	40	-2.4	205/277/292	87	289	8	19	29%	8%	59	-1.1	203/290/292	89	267	11	29	26%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Hansel Moreno 2017 · A	20	44→30	37→45	50	41	207/257/284	76	292	4	10	29%	6%	46	-2.0	201/246/295	94	305	8	15	35%	5%	45	-2.1	181/225/272	91	279	9	18	37%	5%	28	-1.8
✕Adrian Placencia 2022 · A	19	36→37	40→45	48→50	44	172/262/264	92	283	8	7	39%	10%	46	-2.0	186/278/306	120	309	13	12	40%	10%	63	-0.8	178/272/297	119	295	14	13	41%	10%	56	-1.1
✕Trenton Kemp 2016 · A	20	39	38→50	49→45	42	185/260/266	81	282	4	10	34%	8%	45	-2.1	197/254/326	129	337	12	8	42%	6%	57	-1.2	179/234/325	146	312	16	7	46%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Nolan Perez 2019 · A	20	36	38→40	45→40	36	178/228/253	74	267	5	4	34%	5%	27	-3.3	191/230/273	82	324	6	5	41%	4%	33	-2.9	174/195/256	81	303	6	1	44%	2%	11	-1.4
✕Noah Miller 2023 · A	20	40→42	37→40	51→50	47	186/277/258	72	293	4	13	34%	10%	51	-1.7	197/259/270	73	271	5	8	27%	7%	45	-2.1	213/260/298	85	267	7	3	22%	6%	50	-1.3
✕Garrett Whitley 2017 · A	20	40→36	42→50	47→55	44	197/267/302	105	280	9	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	191/270/310	119	334	12	13	42%	9%	61	-1.0	169/260/316	147	293	15	18	44%	10%	55	-0.9
✕Sandy Acevedo 2013 · A	20	41	41→45	50	40	196/269/296	100	293	8	11	34%	7%	56	-1.3	199/266/318	119	286	10	9	32%	7%	61	-1.0	149/220/307	158	194	15	9	31%	7%	36	-0.7