Rafael Castillo

IF DSL Miami

Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKMIA	78	.190/.397/.224	0	3	36	—	.127/.295/.143
2024	18	ROKMIA	141	.217/.407/.264	0	9	42	—	.148/.300/.183
2025	19	ROKDSL Miami	57	.234/.345/.404	1	2	31	—	.143/.236/.224
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBMIA	167	.198/.281/.271	1	3	59	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBMIA	24	.197/.279/.274	0	0	64	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Chase%97

ISO85

Speed82

K%62

wOBA47

BB%40

CompsNomar Fana (age 21) · Nerwilian Cedeño (age 20) · Alan Schoenberger (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .278 / .269

PA29

HR0

K%30

BB%9

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	78	58	11	2	0	0	19	24	1	3	0	190	397	224	622	34	324	31	24	317	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	141	106	23	3	1	0	31	42	3	9	2	217	407	264	671	47	354	30	22	330	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	57	47	11	3	1	1	7	11	1	2	1	234	345	404	750	170	270	19	12	326	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	78	63	8	1	0	0	14	29	1	3	0	127	295	143	438	16	227	37	18	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	141	115	17	2	1	0	22	51	3	9	2	148	300	183	483	35	247	36	16	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	57	49	7	2	1	0	5	13	1	2	1	143	236	224	461	82	172	23	9	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	78	63	8	1	0	0	14	29	1	3	0	127	295	143	438	16	235	37	18	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	78	58	11	2	0	0	19	24	1	3	0	190	397	224	622	34	324	31	24	317	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	141	115	17	2	1	0	22	51	3	9	2	148	300	183	483	35	262	36	16	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	141	106	23	3	1	0	31	42	3	9	2	217	407	264	671	47	354	30	22	330	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	57	49	7	2	1	0	5	13	1	2	1	143	236	224	461	82	184	23	9	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	57	47	11	3	1	1	7	11	1	2	1	234	345	404	750	170	270	19	12	326	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	78	63	8	1	0	0	14	29	1	3	0	127	295	143	438	16	227	37	18	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	141	115	17	2	1	0	22	51	3	9	2	148	300	183	483	35	247	36	16	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	57	51	7	2	1	0	5	13	1	2	1	137	236	216	452	78	172	23	9	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	141	115	17	2	1	0	22	51	3	9	2	148	300	183	483	35	247	36	16	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	57	51	7	2	1	0	5	13	1	2	1	137	236	216	452	78	172	23	9	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	167	148	29	5	1	1	15	50	2	3	1	198	281	271	552	73	288	30	9	256	59	-8	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	70	63	13	2	1	1	6	21	1	1	0	203	285	286	571	84	289	30	9	263	64	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	197	279	274	554	78	280	29	8	256	64	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	182	250	227	477	45	267	29	8	256	45	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	108	27	0	0	54	190	0	0	0	181	249	227	476	45	266	29	8	256	45	-28	+0	+0	+0	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	375	316	50	8	3	1	50	123	6	16	3	158	285	212	497	54	251	33	13	234	45	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	548	87	14	5	2	87	213	10	28	5	159	285	214	499	55	251	33	13	234	45	-29	+3	+0	+0	+14	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Miami · 57 PAwOBA .330 → .214 (−116)K% 19.3% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.30%	÷1.040	×1.220	—	—	22.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.28%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×0.995	8.74%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.22%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.978	×0.680	—	×0.995	11.53%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.026	×0.600	—	×0.995	4.85%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷1.088	×0.600	—	×0.995	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷1.423	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.91%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 185, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 118, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .330 → .214; ISO .170 → .087; BABIP .270 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Marlins · 141 PAwOBA .326 → .231 (−95)K% 29.8% → 36.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.79%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	36.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.99%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.008	15.55%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.50%
Singles /BIP	29.69%	÷0.976	×0.680	×1.022	×1.008	21.30%
Doubles /BIP	4.69%	÷1.059	×0.600	×1.022	×1.008	2.73%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷0.933	×0.600	×1.022	×1.008	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 87, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .326 → .231; ISO .047 → .030; BABIP .354 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Marlins · 78 PAwOBA .311 → .221 (−89)K% 30.8% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.77%	÷1.006	×1.220	—	—	37.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.36%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.022	17.48%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.92%
Singles /BIP	26.47%	÷0.968	×0.680	—	×1.022	19.02%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.990	×0.600	—	×1.022	3.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.285	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 94, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .311 → .221; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .324 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Castillo (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	196/278/269	73	288	0	1	30%	9%	59	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nomar Fana 2024 · A	21	39	38→50	47→50	44	187/258/266	79	280	6	11	33%	8%	51	-2.3	182/260/291	109	294	12	12	39%	9%	57	-1.8	154/241/265	110	245	14	14	40%	10%	43	-1.3
✕Nerwilian Cedeño 2022 · A	20	39→34	40→45	51→50	46	187/269/284	97	284	6	7	34%	9%	59	-1.7	196/267/306	110	300	10	12	35%	8%	63	-1.4	181/253/289	107	271	10	12	35%	8%	51	-1.3
✕Alan Schoenberger 2010 · A	21	40	37→45	49→45	41	186/247/261	75	290	3	8	35%	7%	45	-2.7	198/247/288	90	295	6	6	33%	6%	51	-2.3	186/235/273	87	273	6	5	33%	5%	40	-1.5
✕Noah Miller 2024 · A	21	40→47	38→40	51→50	47	191/267/270	79	268	5	11	29%	9%	55	-2.0	217/269/299	82	278	6	6	23%	7%	61	-1.5	224/272/309	85	279	7	4	21%	6%	63	-1.2
✕Hansel Moreno 2018 · A	21	43→33	38→40	51→50	41	206/255/288	82	285	5	12	28%	6%	53	-2.1	194/239/288	94	293	9	16	35%	5%	47	-2.5	177/222/269	92	266	10	19	36%	5%	34	-2.2
✕Eriandys Ramon 2024 · A	21	40	37→45	50→45	47	188/267/267	78	252	4	8	25%	8%	54	-2.0	184/229/275	91	274	5	6	33%	5%	40	-3.0	165/203/260	95	248	6	5	35%	4%	24	-1.7
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	38	38→45	53→50	51	181/272/260	79	252	4	15	28%	10%	55	-2.0	185/255/278	93	317	6	13	40%	8%	52	-2.2	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Jaden Rudd 2024 · A	21	39→36	37→30	52→50	48	179/290/250	70	276	4	14	32%	10%	61	-1.5	193/286/269	76	307	5	13	35%	9%	63	-1.4	155/260/202	47	253	3	16	35%	10%	36	-0.9
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2019 · A	21	43→44	37→40	48→50	45	203/266/276	74	281	5	7	28%	8%	55	-1.9	190/267/267	77	281	5	14	31%	9%	54	-2.0	202/287/292	90	293	7	15	31%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕C.J. Beatty 2010 · A	21	40	41→45	52→40	41	198/252/295	98	278	9	9	31%	6%	54	-2.0	210/271/325	115	299	9	5	31%	7%	68	-1.0	202/267/333	131	282	11	2	30%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Jean Walters 2023 · A	21	40	34→40	48→45	38	192/235/244	52	279	2	8	31%	5%	35	-3.4	210/250/284	74	285	4	6	26%	5%	50	-2.3	214/261/301	87	283	6	5	26%	6%	55	-1.0
✕Eduardo Lopez 2023 · A	21	41	39→40	46→50	42	193/266/276	83	298	7	9	35%	8%	56	-1.9	191/257/299	108	283	10	11	34%	8%	57	-1.8	169/236/283	114	242	12	11	34%	8%	44	-1.0
✕Julio Garcia 2018 · A	21	42→37	36→40	48→40	38	199/243/272	73	289	2	7	31%	5%	45	-2.7	180/213/244	64	299	4	3	39%	3%	26	-4.0	158/184/209	52	268	4	2	41%	2%	5	-3.0
✕Milkar Perez 2023 · A	21	41	34→40	44→40	52	185/288/234	50	289	2	4	33%	12%	55	-1.9	211/291/289	78	317	4	3	31%	9%	68	-1.0	211/289/291	80	310	4	2	30%	9%	66	-0.7
✕Emmanuel Morel 2017 · A	20	37	34→30	50→55	47	174/257/225	52	263	1	15	32%	10%	41	-3.0	194/259/259	65	313	2	13	36%	7%	49	-2.4	182/247/231	49	295	0	21	35%	6%	35	-0.9
✕Willmer De La Cruz 2024 · A	21	42	36→30	50→55	46	191/277/255	64	298	3	15	34%	10%	55	-1.9	197/272/263	66	330	3	13	37%	9%	55	-2.0	162/255/195	33	292	0	21	40%	10%	30	-0.8
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Raymel Flores 2015 · A	20	39	36→45	49→50	43	180/261/252	71	278	2	10	33%	8%	49	-2.4	198/250/274	76	300	5	10	34%	6%	48	-2.5	186/237/250	64	284	4	11	34%	5%	35	-1.3