Bryce Jenkins — OGILVIE

Bryce Jenkins P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%23.2%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	4	24	4	3	0	0%	0.8	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	0.0%	9.00	3.28	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	4	24	4	3	0	0%	0.8	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	0.0%	9.00	3.28	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	4	24	4	3	0	0%	0.8	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	0.0%	9.00	3.35	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	12	59	13	16	0	9%	1.1	22.0%	27.1%	-5.1%	0.0%	6.00	4.67	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	1	12	59	13	16	0	9%	1.1	22.0%	27.1%	-5.1%	0.0%	6.00	4.67	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	1	12	59	13	16	0	9%	1.1	22.0%	27.1%	-5.1%	0.0%	6.00	4.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	45	0	54	207	61	20	3	0%	1.2	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	1.8%	1.66	3.53	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	45	0	54	207	61	20	3	0%	1.2	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	1.8%	1.66	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	NYM	32	0	41	153	47	15	2	0%	1.3	30.7%	9.8%	20.9%	1.3%	1.99	2.47	—
2026	25	AA RAW	NYM	13	0	14	54	14	5	1	0%	1.1	25.9%	9.3%	16.7%	1.9%	0.66	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	53	225	53	22	7	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.39	4.38	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYM	50	0	52	221	52	22	7	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYM	22	0	23	97	23	10	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.39	4.38	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYM	31	0	33	139	33	14	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	55	23	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.02	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	82	25	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		61	1	70	290	65	42	4	2%	1.2	22.3%	14.4%	7.9%	1.3%	2.82	3.74	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	3	200	825	183	119	11	2%	1.2	22.3%	14.4%	7.9%	1.3%	2.82	3.74	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Jenkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.2%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.39	23.4%	13.6%	106	-0.02	—	—	—
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	92
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	90
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	90
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	89
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	88
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	88
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	88
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	88
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	87
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	86
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	86
Stephen Jones R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	22.7%	11.0%	3.0%	.232	4.60	19.6%	9.2%	139	+0.35	3.62	309	86
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	86
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	86
Jake Barrett R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	22.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.250	3.86	24.1%	12.5%	118	+0.13	1.48	230	86
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	23.3%	9.9%	1.15	4.40
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64