Adrian Bello — OGILVIE

Adrian BelloC FCL Marlins

Age 20 S/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION149 act + 14 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .286 / .308

PA14

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP273

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$35M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	125	110	24	6	2	1	12	36	2	0	0	218	306	336	643	118	311	29	10	291	83	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.0
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	148	127	23	5	0	0	18	53	2	5	2	181	293	220	513	39	307	36	12	248	54	-8	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2025	19	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	178	138	38	5	3	4	36	34	2	8	3	275	432	442	874	167	333	19	20	392	151	+11	+0	—	—	+4	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	125	114	18	4	1	1	8	52	2	0	0	158	226	237	463	79	255	42	6	194	17	-12	+0	—	—	+3	-1.0
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	148	134	15	3	0	0	11	76	2	5	2	112	190	134	325	22	252	51	7	158	-7	-19	+0	—	—	+3	-1.6
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	178	153	30	3	2	2	21	50	2	8	3	196	301	281	582	85	274	28	12	275	72	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	125	114	18	4	1	1	8	52	2	0	0	158	226	237	463	79	274	42	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	125	110	24	6	2	1	12	36	2	0	0	218	306	336	643	118	311	29	10	291	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	148	134	15	3	0	0	11	76	2	5	2	112	190	134	325	22	254	51	7	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	148	127	23	5	0	0	18	53	2	5	2	181	293	220	513	39	307	36	12	248	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	178	153	30	3	2	2	21	50	2	8	3	196	301	281	582	85	272	28	12	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	178	138	38	5	3	4	36	34	2	8	3	275	432	442	874	167	333	19	20	392	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	125	114	18	4	1	1	8	52	2	0	0	158	226	237	463	79	255	42	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	148	134	15	3	0	0	11	76	2	5	2	112	190	134	325	22	252	51	7	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	178	153	30	3	2	2	21	50	2	8	3	196	301	281	582	85	274	28	12	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	125	114	18	4	1	1	8	52	2	0	0	158	226	237	463	79	255	42	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	148	134	15	3	0	0	11	76	2	5	2	112	190	134	325	22	252	51	7	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	178	153	30	3	2	2	21	50	2	8	3	196	301	281	582	85	274	28	12	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	MIA	—	149	134	28	7	0	2	12	40	2	12	3	209	284	306	590	97	280	27	8	261	63	-7	+1	+0	+3	+3	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	MIA	—	149	126	35	10	0	2	20	28	2	12	3	278	385	405	790	127	340	19	13	357	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	MIA	0%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	231	286	308	593	77	281	29	7	270	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	20	ROK MLE	MIA	—	163	147	31	8	0	2	13	44	2	12	3	211	284	306	590	95	284	27	8	262	63	-7	+1	+0	+3	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	229	206	45	9	1	4	19	58	2	5	1	218	291	330	621	112	284	25	8	281	76	-6	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	348	311	69	14	2	6	30	87	4	7	2	222	299	338	636	116	285	25	9	289	81	-8	+1	+0	+6	+8	0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	427	382	85	17	2	8	37	105	5	9	2	223	300	340	640	118	286	25	9	293	85	-8	+1	+0	+8	+9	1.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	481	431	98	20	2	10	42	118	5	9	3	227	303	353	656	125	287	25	9	296	86	-8	+1	+0	+9	+10	1.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	511	455	104	21	2	11	45	125	6	10	3	229	306	356	662	127	287	24	9	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	520	463	105	21	2	11	46	127	6	10	3	227	305	352	657	125	287	24	9	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	520	463	105	21	2	11	46	127	6	10	3	227	305	352	657	125	287	24	9	297	87	-8	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	520	462	105	21	2	11	47	128	6	10	3	227	307	353	660	126	286	25	9	296	87	-8	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	520	462	103	21	2	10	47	129	6	9	3	223	303	342	645	119	286	25	9	294	85	-9	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	517	459	103	21	2	10	47	130	6	9	2	224	305	344	649	120	284	25	9	291	83	-10	+1	-2	+9	+11	0.9
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	489	437	95	19	2	9	44	124	5	8	2	217	296	332	628	114	282	25	9	287	81	-11	+1	-3	+9	+11	0.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	457	408	87	17	2	8	41	118	5	7	2	213	293	324	616	110	278	26	9	282	77	-13	+1	-4	+8	+10	0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	416	372	78	15	2	7	37	109	4	6	2	210	288	317	605	108	274	26	9	275	72	-14	+0	-4	+7	+9	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	79	71	14	3	0	1	7	20	1	2	0	197	278	282	560	85	276	25	9	266	76	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	169	150	33	6	1	3	15	42	2	3	1	220	299	333	633	113	277	25	9	273	81	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	232	207	45	9	1	4	20	57	3	5	1	217	296	329	624	111	278	25	9	277	85	-4	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	267	239	52	10	1	5	23	65	3	5	1	218	294	331	625	113	279	24	9	280	86	-4	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	286	256	57	11	1	6	25	70	3	6	2	223	299	344	643	121	279	24	9	281	87	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	292	261	57	11	1	6	26	71	3	6	2	218	297	337	634	119	279	24	9	281	87	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	288	257	57	11	1	6	26	70	3	6	2	222	301	342	643	121	279	24	9	281	87	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	285	254	56	11	1	6	26	70	3	5	1	220	300	343	643	122	278	25	9	280	87	-5	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	278	248	53	10	1	5	25	69	3	5	1	214	293	323	616	109	277	25	9	279	85	-5	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	272	242	52	10	1	5	25	68	3	5	1	215	296	326	623	112	276	25	9	276	83	-5	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	255	227	49	9	1	5	23	65	3	4	1	216	296	330	627	115	274	25	9	272	81	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	237	212	44	8	1	4	21	61	2	4	1	208	285	311	596	104	271	26	9	267	77	-7	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	215	192	39	7	1	3	19	57	2	3	1	203	282	297	579	94	267	27	9	261	72	-7	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3155	2816	608	116	12	59	281	785	34	59	15	216	295	328	623	113	277	25	9	276	80	-62	+6	-8	+56	+68	6.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	125	24	2	12	58	162	7	12	3	216	294	326	620	110	277	25	9	276	80	-13	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6420	5725	1248	248	28	119	569	1667	72	122	36	218	297	333	630	115	284	26	9	286	80	-120	+9	-15	+107	+129	11.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	126	25	3	12	58	169	7	12	4	217	297	333	629	116	283	26	9	286	80	-13	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.0	3,303	63	60	224	298	344	+59	+32	8.7	7.4
/162	664	13	12	+11.9	+6.4	1.7	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Bello (OGILVIE)	20	45	35	50	60	209/285/302	93	281	2	5	26%	8%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Shawn Zarraga 2009 · A	20	48	40	51→45	49	226/308/322	96	306	7	7	26%	9%	82	-0.0	222/294/296	74	305	5	6	26%	7%	71	-0.8	277/346/357	80	319	4	2	13%	7%	103	+0.5
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→48	42→50	47→45	46	221/286/323	102	285	10	12	26%	8%	74	-0.6	228/311/363	135	276	12	9	21%	10%	93	+0.8	222/308/359	137	264	13	9	20%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Juan Benjamin 2023 · A	20	46→50	41→40	50→55	48	218/295/326	108	304	7	10	29%	9%	78	-0.3	218/277/292	74	311	4	17	29%	7%	62	-1.4	215/274/281	66	303	4	20	28%	7%	57	-1.2
✕Harold Garcia 2007 · A	20	45→55	39→45	46→55	47	211/305/306	95	281	6	9	25%	8%	78	-0.3	229/295/330	101	292	7	15	23%	5%	79	-0.2	253/307/362	109	339	8	26	26%	4%	88	+0.3
✕Jose Lobatón 2006 · A	21	45	39→45	50→30	46	213/275/298	85	283	5	8	26%	8%	63	-1.3	216/286/336	120	301	12	3	30%	9%	77	-0.3	233/317/359	126	296	11	0	23%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	50→56	39→45	48→50	52	238/315/322	84	301	6	12	22%	10%	84	+0.1	211/274/296	85	298	5	10	29%	8%	62	-1.4	228/307/343	115	304	11	10	27%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	65	-1.2	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	72	-0.7	244/312/343	100	289	8	16	17%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Maick Collado 2023 · A	20	44	38→40	46→45	51	210/292/292	82	271	6	5	23%	9%	70	-0.9	215/286/286	71	274	5	6	21%	9%	65	-1.2	206/277/269	63	257	5	5	20%	8%	58	-1.0
✕Ramón Cabrera 2009 · A	19	43→53	40	51→40	49	209/274/305	96	254	7	7	20%	8%	65	-1.2	237/285/325	88	280	4	5	16%	6%	73	-0.6	271/325/356	85	309	2	3	12%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Oswaldo Linares 2023 · A	20	42	41→40	48→40	52	203/299/295	93	261	9	6	24%	10%	74	-0.6	189/286/270	81	279	7	4	31%	11%	63	-1.4	163/267/230	67	248	6	2	33%	11%	45	-1.0
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	50→52	39→40	54→50	56	234/323/325	91	290	6	14	20%	11%	88	+0.4	239/315/327	88	307	7	14	23%	8%	86	+0.3	239/316/323	84	307	7	14	23%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Charlie Valerio 2011 · A	20	44	39→40	46→45	50	212/283/296	84	257	7	7	20%	8%	66	-1.1	211/271/305	94	279	8	7	26%	7%	63	-1.3	200/254/293	93	276	9	5	29%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	47→55	38→45	48→50	49	218/287/306	88	288	3	11	24%	8%	70	-0.9	245/307/361	116	300	9	13	20%	7%	90	+0.6	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Brayan Rocchio 2021 · A	20	48→53	38→45	48→50	43	226/277/308	82	281	5	13	21%	5%	66	-1.1	226/284/349	123	286	11	14	24%	6%	79	-0.2	222/294/342	121	256	12	16	18%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	45	38→30	48→60	46	214/278/297	83	284	5	13	26%	8%	64	-1.3	217/304/278	61	289	3	24	23%	10%	70	-0.8	216/317/260	44	285	1	34	22%	12%	69	-0.4
✕Jacob Amaya 2019 · A	20	49→45	39→45	48→45	51	230/308/317	87	304	7	11	25%	10%	80	-0.1	213/286/312	99	280	8	6	25%	9%	71	-0.8	207/279/322	115	260	13	5	25%	9%	69	-0.8
✕Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	44→53	40→45	53→50	51	212/293/307	95	270	8	10	23%	10%	73	-0.6	225/299/349	124	276	11	8	21%	9%	84	+0.2	220/327/339	119	312	10	7	29%	13%	91	+0.5
✕Derwin Barreto 2021 · A	20	43	41→40	51→50	46	205/278/304	99	280	8	10	28%	8%	66	-1.1	198/277/287	89	307	7	9	35%	9%	62	-1.4	148/241/195	47	257	4	9	40%	10%	26	-0.8
✕Sam McMillan 2019 · A	20	47	41→30	47→45	49	227/314/329	102	280	8	6	21%	8%	86	+0.3	212/313/285	73	291	4	7	26%	10%	76	-0.4	204/326/266	62	270	4	7	22%	12%	75	-0.2
✕Eliezer Alfonzo 2021 · A	21	49→51	38→45	49→40	50	229/293/310	80	275	4	8	18%	8%	73	-0.6	237/280/337	100	262	10	3	14%	5%	74	-0.5	236/276/331	95	249	11	2	10%	4%	69	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps