Adrian Bello

C FCL Marlins
Age 21 S/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1395ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKMIA148.181/.293/.22005-4—.114/.204/.136
202519ROKMIA178.275/.432/.4424858—.173/.295/.240
202620ROKMIA149.278/.385/.40521262—.209/.284/.306
2027PROJMLE21MLBMIA259.204/.277/.28835610.0
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBMIA43.202/.276/.29011670.0
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBMIA99.205/.279/.30112710.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
Whiff%67
K%63
Z-Con%59
wRC+58
ISO55
wOBA48
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsNoah Miller (age 21) · Arquímedes Gamboa (age 21) · Riley Unroe (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 77 proj PA
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .274 / .286
PA77
HR1
K%28
BB%8
ISO85
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.7 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.20.30.30.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER35
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-1$0.2M———
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $1M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Marlins — 125110 24621 12362 00 218306336643 118311 2910 291 14 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Marlins — 148127 23500 18532 52 181293220513 39307 3612 248 -4 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL Marlins — 178138 38534 36342 83 275432442874 167333 1920 392 58 — — — — — —
202620 ROKFCL Marlins — 149126 351002 20282 123 278385405790 127340 1913 357 62 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 125113 16410 9442 00 142218195412 53216 357 189 14 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 148132 15300 13642 52 114204136340 23211 439 163 -4 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 178150 26321 24432 83 173295240535 67225 2413 254 58 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Marlins — 149134 28702 12402 123 209284306590 97279 278 260 62 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 125113 16410 9442 00 142218195412 53229 357 189 14 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Marlins — 125110 24621 12362 00 218306336643 118311 2910 291 14 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 148132 15300 13642 52 114204136340 23217 439 163 -4 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Marlins — 148127 23500 18532 52 181293220513 39307 3612 248 -4 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 178150 26321 24432 83 173295240535 67231 2413 254 58 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWDSL Marlins — 178138 38534 36342 83 275432442874 167333 1920 392 58 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Marlins — 149134 28702 12402 123 209284306590 97280 278 260 62 — — — — — —
202620 ROK RAWFCL Marlins — 149126 351002 20282 123 278385405790 127340 1913 357 62 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 125113 16410 9442 00 142218195412 53216 357 189 14 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 148132 15300 13642 52 114204136340 23211 439 163 -4 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 178150 26321 24432 83 173295240535 67225 2413 254 58 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Marlins — 149134 28702 12402 123 209284306590 97279 278 260 62 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 148132 15300 13642 52 114204136340 23211 439 163 -4 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 178150 26321 24432 83 173295240535 67225 2413 254 58 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Marlins — 149134 28702 12402 123 209284306590 97279 278 260 62 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEMIA 0% 259234 49923 21722 51 204277288565 85279 288 259 61 -12 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEMIA 34% 125113 24412 10341 21 208282303585 95281 278 267 67 -5 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.0
202923 MLB MLEMIA 48% 205184 39713 17552 41 212286315600 103282 278 273 71 -7 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.1
203024 MLB MLEMIA 53% 290261 561025 24773 51 215289324613 109284 278 278 74 -9 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.3
203125 MLB MLEMIA 55% 348313 671226 29923 72 217291330621 113284 268 281 76 -10 +1 +0 +6 +8 0.5
203226 MLB MLEMIA 56% 381342 751427 321004 72 219292335627 116284 268 283 78 -10 +1 +0 +7 +8 0.6
203327 MLB MLEMIA 55% 396356 771427 331044 72 218291332623 114284 268 282 77 -11 +1 +0 +7 +9 0.5
203428 MLB MLEMIA 55% 399359 771427 331064 62 216289327616 111283 278 279 75 -12 +0 -1 +7 +9 0.4
203529 MLB MLEMIA 53% 393354 761427 331053 62 213286321607 108281 278 275 73 -13 +0 -1 +7 +9 0.2
203630 MLB MLEMIA 53% 385347 731326 321053 52 210283313596 103279 278 271 69 -14 +0 -2 +7 +8 -0.1
202822 MLB CTXMIA 34% 4339 8101 4120 10 202276290566 89272 289 259 67 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202923 MLB CTXMIA 48% 9990 18311 8271 21 205279301581 96273 278 265 71 -3 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.0
203024 MLB CTXMIA 53% 153138 28512 13411 31 208282310592 102275 278 270 74 -5 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.2
203125 MLB CTXMIA 55% 190170 35613 16502 41 210284316601 106275 268 273 76 -5 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.3
203226 MLB CTXMIA 56% 212190 40714 18562 41 212286320606 108275 268 275 78 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.3
203327 MLB CTXMIA 55% 218196 41714 18572 41 211285318602 107274 268 274 77 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.3
203428 MLB CTXMIA 55% 218196 41714 18582 41 209283313596 104274 278 271 75 -6 +0 -0 +4 +5 0.2
203529 MLB CTXMIA 53% 210189 39713 17562 31 206280307587 101272 278 267 73 -7 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.1
203630 MLB CTXMIA 53% 202181 37613 17552 31 204277300576 96270 278 263 69 -7 +0 -1 +4 +4 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 15451389 28749825 12941214 288 207281307588 101273 278 270 67 -47 +2 -2 +28 +33 1.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650584 12121311 541736 123 207281310591 103273 278 270 67 -20 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 35993228 6631221954 30799036 7523 205282305587 100276 289 267 67 -94 +4 -4 +54 +65 2.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 12022310 551797 144 206282305587 99276 288 267 67 -20 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Marlins · 149 PAwOBA .349 → .260 (−89)K% 18.8% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.79%÷1.000×1.440——27.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.75%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9957.87%
HBP% /PA1.34%—×0.720—×0.9950.96%
Singles /BIP23.47%÷1.000×0.820×1.050×0.99520.11%
Doubles /BIP10.20%÷1.000×0.720×1.050×0.9957.68%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×1.050×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP2.04%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9951.58%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .349 → .260; ISO .127 → .094; BABIP .340 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Marlins · 178 PAwOBA .385 → .254 (−131)K% 19.1% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.10%÷0.973×1.220——23.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.66%÷1.029×0.700—×0.99513.31%
HBP% /PA1.12%—×0.700—×0.9950.78%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.955×0.680×1.029×0.99518.24%
Doubles /BIP4.81%÷1.073×0.600×1.029×0.9952.75%
Triples /BIP2.88%÷1.097×0.600×1.029×0.9951.62%
Home runs /BIP3.85%÷1.383×0.470—×0.9951.30%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 91, 2B 115, 3B 119, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .385 → .254; ISO .167 → .079; BABIP .333 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Marlins · 148 PAwOBA .244 → .163 (−82)K% 35.8% → 43.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.81%÷1.004×1.220——43.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.16%÷0.997×0.700—×1.0088.60%
HBP% /PA1.35%—×0.700—×1.0080.95%
Singles /BIP24.32%÷0.976×0.680×1.024×1.00817.49%
Doubles /BIP6.76%÷1.059×0.600×1.024×1.0083.95%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.933×0.600×1.024×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.940×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 87, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .244 → .163; ISO .039 → .022; BABIP .307 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Marlins · 125 PAwOBA .287 → .189 (−97)K% 28.8% → 34.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.80%÷1.006×1.220——34.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.60%÷0.997×0.700—×1.0226.89%
HBP% /PA1.60%—×0.700—×1.0221.15%
Singles /BIP20.27%÷0.968×0.680×1.038×1.02215.12%
Doubles /BIP8.11%÷0.990×0.600×1.038×1.0225.22%
Triples /BIP2.70%÷1.150×0.600×1.038×1.0221.50%
Home runs /BIP1.35%÷1.285×0.470—×1.0220.51%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 94, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .287 → .189; ISO .118 → .063; BABIP .311 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).