Jhon Reyes — OGILVIE

Jhon Reyes P Columbia Fireflies

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%20.7%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	7	0	7	27	10	4	0	0%	1.0	37.0%	14.8%	22.2%	0.0%	4.05	1.85	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	7	0	7	27	10	4	0	0%	1.0	37.0%	14.8%	22.2%	0.0%	4.05	1.85	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	7	0	7	27	10	4	0	0%	1.0	37.0%	14.8%	22.2%	0.0%	4.05	1.90	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	0	20	86	15	11	2	0%	1.8	11.9%	16.0%	-4.1%	2.5%	5.31	5.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	0	20	86	15	11	2	0%	1.8	11.9%	16.0%	-4.1%	2.5%	5.31	5.51	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	0	20	86	15	11	2	0%	1.8	17.4%	12.8%	4.7%	2.3%	5.31	4.53	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	16	0	27	107	28	4	1	0%	1.7	17.8%	4.7%	13.1%	1.4%	2.36	2.95	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	16	0	27	107	28	4	1	0%	1.7	17.8%	4.7%	13.1%	1.4%	2.36	2.95	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	16	0	27	107	28	4	1	0%	1.7	26.2%	3.7%	22.4%	0.9%	2.36	1.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	39	0	51	255	50	37	9	0%	1.3	14.5%	17.1%	-2.6%	4.6%	8.12	6.56	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	39	0	51	255	50	37	9	0%	1.3	14.5%	17.1%	-2.6%	4.6%	8.12	6.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	KC	39	0	51	255	50	37	9	0%	1.3	19.6%	14.5%	5.1%	3.5%	8.12	5.22	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	49	0	52	219	47	18	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.31	4.26	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	51	0	53	224	50	18	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	51	0	54	227	52	18	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	7.8%	15.0%	2.9%	4.17	4.13	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	51	0	54	227	52	18	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.8%	15.2%	2.9%	4.13	4.11	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	50	0	53	224	51	18	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.14	4.15	+0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	24	0	25	106	23	8	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	2.9%	4.31	4.26	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	35	0	37	156	35	12	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	42	0	44	186	42	15	5	0%	1.0	22.8%	7.8%	15.0%	2.9%	4.17	4.13	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	45	0	47	198	46	16	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.8%	15.2%	2.9%	4.13	4.11	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	46	0	48	203	47	16	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.14	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	0	201	849	192	67	25	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.18	3.77	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	67	25	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.18	3.77	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		73	0	105	475	76	66	15	0%	1.4	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	3.2%	5.85	5.29	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	0	200	908	146	127	29	0%	1.4	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	3.2%	5.85	5.29	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhon Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	20.7%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.19	22.3%	14.4%	159	-0.21	—	—	—
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	93
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	92
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	91
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	90
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	89
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Andrew Bash R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.21	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.34	3.52	483	87
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	87
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	87
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	87
Sean Boyle R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SU	4.70	21.3%	7.8%	4.4%	.342	2.87	22.6%	15.3%	86	-1.83	2.87	543	86
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	86
Jacob Bodner R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	22	SU	3.40	19.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.281	3.35	22.1%	12.4%	98	-0.05	2.93	124	85
RJ Petit R 2022 · 4.43 FIP	22	SU	4.43	20.3%	8.4%	3.6%	.270	3.44	22.2%	12.7%	177	-0.99	3.08	231	85
Jose Geraldo R 2022 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	18.9%	9.9%	2.0%	.337	4.47	19.0%	9.9%	49	+0.62	3.14	154	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	22.5%	7.9%	1.12	4.21
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47