Julio Zayas — OGILVIE

Julio ZayasC St. Lucie Mets

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION291 act + 194 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .292 / .291

PA194

HR2

K%31

BB%9

BABIP306

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$7M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$40M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	202	184	41	10	1	5	8	39	5	1	1	223	274	370	644	147	248	19	4	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	202	176	54	14	1	7	15	26	5	1	1	307	376	517	893	210	318	13	7	382	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Mets	—	131	118	20	2	1	2	10	34	2	0	0	169	246	254	500	85	217	26	8	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Mets	—	131	109	26	3	1	3	18	22	2	0	0	239	354	367	721	128	271	17	14	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Mets	—	173	152	34	7	0	1	14	34	6	0	0	224	314	289	603	66	280	20	8	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Mets	—	173	141	40	9	0	1	22	24	6	0	0	284	395	369	764	85	333	14	13	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	NYM	—	291	255	51	7	1	3	29	102	3	0	0	200	289	271	560	71	312	35	10	255	53	-15	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.2
YTD	20	A	NYM	—	291	243	60	8	1	4	38	72	3	0	0	247	352	337	689	91	327	25	13	314	99	-0	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.3
ROS	20	A	NYM	0%	194	172	36	6	1	2	17	60	3	1	0	209	292	291	582	81	296	31	9	264	61	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
ROS	20	MLB	NYM	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		296	—	—	254	53	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	NYM	—	291	256	51	7	1	3	29	102	3	0	0	199	289	270	559	70	310	35	10	255	53	-15	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.2
TOT	20	A	NYM	—	485	427	87	13	2	5	46	162	6	1	0	204	290	279	569	75	309	33	9	259	56	-24	+0	+0	+9	+14	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	NYM	34%	387	345	73	13	1	6	34	114	5	1	0	212	292	307	599	96	296	29	9	278	71	-13	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.5
2028	22	MLB	NYM	48%	467	416	92	16	2	9	42	134	6	1	0	221	302	334	636	113	297	29	9	287	78	-12	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.0
2029	23	MLB	NYM	54%	510	452	101	17	2	11	46	143	7	2	0	223	305	343	648	119	298	28	9	292	82	-11	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.4
2030	24	MLB	NYM	55%	520	461	104	18	2	11	47	144	7	2	0	226	307	345	652	119	298	28	9	295	84	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2031	25	MLB	NYM	56%	520	461	105	18	2	12	47	144	7	2	0	228	309	354	662	126	298	28	9	296	85	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2032	26	MLB	NYM	56%	520	460	105	18	2	12	48	144	7	2	0	228	311	354	665	126	298	28	9	297	85	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2033	27	MLB	NYM	55%	520	460	104	18	2	12	48	144	7	2	0	226	309	352	661	126	298	28	9	297	86	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2034	28	MLB	NYM	55%	520	459	104	18	2	12	49	145	7	1	0	227	311	353	664	126	297	28	9	296	85	-9	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.5
2035	29	MLB	NYM	53%	520	459	102	17	2	11	49	146	7	1	0	222	307	340	647	118	296	28	9	294	83	-10	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2036	30	MLB	NYM	53%	520	459	101	17	1	11	49	147	7	1	0	220	305	333	638	113	295	28	9	291	81	-11	+0	-2	+9	+15	1.1
2037	31	MLB	NYM	57%	491	435	94	16	1	10	46	141	7	1	0	216	301	326	628	110	292	29	9	287	78	-12	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.8
2027	21	MLB	NYM	34%	133	118	24	4	0	2	12	39	2	0	0	203	288	288	576	85	296	29	9	268	63	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2028	22	MLB	NYM	48%	226	201	44	8	1	4	20	65	3	1	0	219	299	328	627	109	297	29	9	276	70	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2029	23	MLB	NYM	54%	277	246	55	9	1	6	25	78	4	1	0	224	305	341	647	118	297	28	9	281	74	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2030	24	MLB	NYM	55%	288	256	57	10	1	6	26	80	4	1	0	223	304	340	644	117	298	28	9	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2031	25	MLB	NYM	56%	291	258	58	10	1	6	27	81	4	1	0	225	308	341	649	116	298	28	9	286	77	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2032	26	MLB	NYM	56%	292	259	59	10	1	7	27	81	4	1	0	228	310	355	666	127	298	28	9	287	77	-7	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	27	MLB	NYM	55%	288	255	57	10	1	6	27	80	4	1	0	224	308	341	649	118	298	28	9	287	77	-7	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2034	28	MLB	NYM	55%	285	252	57	10	1	6	27	79	4	1	0	226	311	345	656	119	297	28	9	286	77	-7	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.6
2035	29	MLB	NYM	53%	278	246	54	9	1	6	26	78	4	1	0	220	304	337	642	118	296	28	9	284	75	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.5
2036	30	MLB	NYM	53%	274	242	54	9	1	6	26	78	4	1	0	223	309	343	652	120	295	28	9	281	73	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2037	31	MLB	NYM	57%	277	245	54	9	1	6	26	79	4	1	0	220	305	339	644	118	292	29	9	277	70	-9	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2909	2579	573	98	10	61	269	818	41	10	0	222	306	339	645	117	299	28	9	282	74	-85	+2	-4	+52	+82	4.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	128	22	2	14	60	183	9	2	0	222	305	340	645	118	299	28	9	282	74	-19	+0	-1	+12	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	6195	5493	1216	211	22	127	554	1713	90	18	1	221	303	337	640	116	295	28	9	289	79	-147	+3	-7	+111	+176	13.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	127	22	2	13	58	180	9	2	0	220	301	333	635	113	295	28	9	289	79	-15	+0	-1	+12	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mets Orange	—	202	176	54	14	1	7	15	26	5	1	1	307	376	517	893	210	318	13	7	382	151	+12	-0	—	—	+6	1.7
2024	18	ROK	FCL Mets	—	131	109	26	3	1	3	18	22	2	0	0	239	354	367	721	128	271	17	14	328	109	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2025	19	ROK	FCL Mets	—	173	141	40	9	0	1	22	24	6	0	0	284	395	369	764	85	333	14	13	350	126	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,158	65	10	222	301	338	+56	+28	7.6	6.7
	/162	664	14	2	222	301	338	+11.9	+5.9	1.6	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Julio Zayas (OGILVIE)	20	50	20	35	45	204/290/279	75	309	5	1	33%	9%	56	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Fernandez 2019 · A	20	42→52	38→40	39→50	43	202/259/282	81	260	5	4	24%	6%	48	-1.9	205/262/300	95	269	8	5	26%	6%	54	-1.4	239/301/332	93	297	10	9	22%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Ramon Mendoza 2021 · A	20	46→51	39→45	41→45	44	215/285/308	93	302	6	4	29%	7%	66	-0.6	195/267/273	78	284	4	5	30%	8%	50	-1.8	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
●Daniel Robertson 2014 · A	20	44→54	42→45	37→40	44	216/277/321	104	275	9	3	25%	7%	66	-0.6	239/305/344	105	301	8	3	22%	7%	84	+0.6	231/336/345	114	301	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Andy Paz 2014 · A	21	45	38→40	42→45	47	212/273/289	77	273	5	5	23%	7%	56	-1.3	200/258/270	70	282	5	5	29%	7%	44	-2.1	202/252/250	48	271	3	6	25%	6%	33	-0.9
✕Cutter Dykstra 2009 · A	20	44→53	42→40	41→55	45	214/279/314	100	286	9	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	208/267/286	78	293	7	14	29%	7%	52	-1.6	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Enlly Morales 2010 · A	20	48	38→40	38→40	47	228/284/315	87	267	5	5	16%	6%	67	-0.5	217/263/283	66	280	3	5	22%	5%	49	-1.8	208/241/241	33	278	0	3	24%	3%	26	-0.7
✕Juan Heredia 2012 · A	20	45	35→30	38→50	52	207/291/269	62	274	2	6	23%	10%	59	-1.1	202/293/262	60	264	2	11	21%	10%	58	-1.2	188/302/244	56	248	0	15	21%	12%	55	-0.6
●Luis Campusano 2019 · A	20	48→56	38→50	40→30	43	232/279/305	73	291	6	3	22%	5%	62	-0.9	252/307/395	143	297	16	3	20%	7%	98	+1.6	264/328/432	168	297	22	1	19%	8%	113	+1.5
✕Yeiner Fernandez 2023 · A	20	51→52	41→40	42→45	45	246/305/343	97	305	8	4	22%	6%	83	+0.6	232/294/313	81	280	6	5	18%	7%	71	-0.3	228/290/294	67	272	5	5	17%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Simon Vasquez 2009 · A	21	45	35→40	40→50	49	210/285/271	61	269	2	4	22%	8%	56	-1.3	227/286/308	81	283	4	7	20%	6%	66	-0.6	253/299/341	88	301	2	9	16%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Alexander Campos 2018 · A	18	46	37→40	39→45	51	214/291/283	68	279	4	8	23%	9%	62	-0.9	195/266/265	70	306	4	9	34%	8%	46	-2.0	215/312/294	79	295	8	4	27%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Paul Kelly 2006 · A	19	45→51	40	40	40	214/273/303	89	303	8	6	30%	6%	59	-1.1	228/281/311	83	290	4	5	22%	5%	64	-0.8	237/290/318	82	293	3	3	19%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Kelvin Fajardo 2015 · A	19	50	34→30	40→50	47	232/289/289	57	289	1	4	19%	6%	62	-0.9	215/271/261	46	256	1	7	16%	6%	46	-2.0	204/259/226	22	236	0	9	13%	5%	32	-1.1
✕David Hernandez 2008 · A	21	50	38→40	42→55	45	236/288/313	76	287	5	6	19%	6%	67	-0.5	215/281/287	72	273	3	13	21%	7%	59	-1.1	190/270/244	53	241	0	22	19%	8%	40	-1.0
✕Johnabiell Laureano 2021 · A	20	46	40→30	41→45	44	220/283/313	93	300	7	7	28%	7%	66	-0.6	189/252/263	74	331	7	5	42%	7%	40	-2.4	156/230/217	61	286	8	2	45%	8%	17	-1.1
✕Felipe Burin 2012 · A	20	53	36→40	40→45	49	245/306/322	77	305	3	4	20%	7%	78	+0.2	215/278/283	68	289	3	5	24%	8%	56	-1.3	161/236/190	28	218	0	3	24%	8%	14	-1.2
✕Raul Juarez 2018 · A	20	44	38→45	42→40	40	212/269/287	76	277	6	6	25%	5%	54	-1.4	203/254/282	79	289	6	5	30%	5%	46	-2.0	147/189/214	67	208	8	0	33%	3%	-2	-1.0
✕Dante Bichette Jr. 2013 · A	20	49	37→45	42→40	42	231/285/309	79	309	4	4	26%	6%	65	-0.7	211/266/308	97	291	9	2	29%	6%	58	-1.2	237/294/332	95	297	8	3	22%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Colton Welker 2018 · A	20	52→53	41→40	42→45	41	249/285/351	102	299	8	7	20%	4%	76	+0.1	226/266/320	94	300	8	5	26%	5%	60	-1.0	187/253/272	86	238	8	3	24%	7%	42	-0.9
✕Luis Sierra 2007 · A	20	45	36→40	39→45	50	207/292/280	72	272	3	5	23%	9%	63	-0.9	222/283/317	95	264	8	8	18%	6%	68	-0.5	224/278/323	99	258	10	8	17%	5%	65	-0.3