Ti'Quan Forbes
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | AACWS | 449 | .242/.334/.327 | 3 | 4 | 54 | — | .201/.278/.263 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA/AACWS | 334 | .267/.331/.396 | 6 | 6 | 67 | — | .235/.283/.334 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAARI | 386 | .261/.318/.386 | 9 | 7 | 56 | — | .217/.262/.309 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 204 | 174 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 47 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 241 | 343 | 282 | 625 | 40 | 323 | 23 | 11 | 292 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 467 | 427 | 107 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 251 | 309 | 335 | 644 | 84 | 323 | 23 | 5 | 291 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 215 | 198 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 54 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 222 | 277 | 303 | 580 | 81 | 289 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 320 | 302 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 76 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 242 | 284 | 368 | 652 | 126 | 298 | 24 | 4 | 292 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 462 | 432 | 118 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 74 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 273 | 314 | 391 | 706 | 118 | 316 | 16 | 5 | 313 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 449 | 392 | 95 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 106 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 242 | 334 | 327 | 661 | 84 | 324 | 24 | 10 | 304 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 174 | 156 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 308 | 340 | 648 | 103 | 315 | 26 | 8 | 292 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 160 | 147 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 299 | 356 | 456 | 812 | 156 | 408 | 28 | 5 | 362 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 386 | 352 | 92 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 97 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 261 | 318 | 386 | 704 | 125 | 332 | 25 | 5 | 313 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 204 | 183 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 68 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 180 | 254 | 202 | 456 | 22 | 280 | 33 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 467 | 435 | 94 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 143 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 216 | 263 | 287 | 551 | 71 | 311 | 31 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 215 | 203 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 79 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 177 | 216 | 232 | 447 | 54 | 272 | 37 | 4 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 320 | 306 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 101 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 199 | 234 | 294 | 528 | 95 | 271 | 32 | 2 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 462 | 440 | 107 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 113 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 243 | 273 | 336 | 609 | 93 | 311 | 24 | 3 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 449 | 403 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 128 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 201 | 278 | 263 | 541 | 62 | 288 | 29 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 174 | 161 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 267 | 292 | 559 | 75 | 306 | 30 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 160 | 150 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 55 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 253 | 300 | 380 | 680 | 127 | 374 | 34 | 3 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 386 | 359 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 117 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 217 | 262 | 309 | 572 | 92 | 293 | 30 | 3 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 204 | 183 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 68 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 180 | 254 | 202 | 456 | 22 | 280 | 33 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Rangers | — | 204 | 174 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 47 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 241 | 343 | 282 | 625 | 40 | 323 | 23 | 11 | 292 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 467 | 435 | 94 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 143 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 216 | 263 | 287 | 551 | 71 | 313 | 31 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 467 | 427 | 107 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 251 | 309 | 335 | 644 | 84 | 323 | 23 | 5 | 291 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 509 | 97 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 180 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 191 | 227 | 269 | 496 | 79 | 276 | 34 | 3 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 500 | 117 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 130 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 234 | 281 | 342 | 623 | 108 | 294 | 24 | 5 | 280 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 462 | 440 | 107 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 113 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 243 | 273 | 336 | 609 | 93 | 315 | 24 | 3 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 462 | 432 | 118 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 74 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 273 | 314 | 391 | 706 | 118 | 316 | 16 | 5 | 313 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 449 | 403 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 128 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 201 | 278 | 263 | 541 | 62 | 288 | 29 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 449 | 392 | 95 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 106 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 242 | 334 | 327 | 661 | 84 | 324 | 24 | 10 | 304 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 311 | 73 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 108 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 235 | 283 | 334 | 618 | 100 | 343 | 32 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 334 | 303 | 81 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 90 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 267 | 331 | 396 | 727 | 129 | 359 | 27 | 7 | 325 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 386 | 359 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 117 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 217 | 262 | 309 | 572 | 92 | 300 | 30 | 3 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 386 | 352 | 92 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 97 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 261 | 318 | 386 | 704 | 125 | 332 | 25 | 5 | 313 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 204 | 184 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 68 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 179 | 254 | 201 | 455 | 22 | 280 | 33 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 467 | 436 | 94 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 143 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 216 | 263 | 287 | 550 | 71 | 311 | 31 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 506 | 97 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 180 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 192 | 227 | 271 | 498 | 79 | 271 | 34 | 3 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 462 | 441 | 107 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 113 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 243 | 273 | 336 | 609 | 93 | 311 | 24 | 3 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 449 | 403 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 128 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 201 | 278 | 263 | 541 | 62 | 288 | 29 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 310 | 73 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 108 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 235 | 283 | 335 | 619 | 100 | 339 | 32 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 386 | 361 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 117 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 216 | 262 | 307 | 570 | 91 | 293 | 30 | 3 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2837 | 2640 | 563 | 85 | 18 | 28 | 122 | 857 | 52 | 42 | 30 | 213 | 262 | 291 | 553 | 78 | 302 | 30 | 4 | 244 | 51 | -164 | -4 | +0 | +10 | +61 | -9.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 128 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 196 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 212 | 260 | 286 | 546 | 74 | 300 | 30 | 4 | 244 | 51 | -38 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 386 PAwOBA .308 → .251 (−57)K% 25.1% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.13% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.18% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 23.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷1.022 | ×0.840 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 4.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.938 | ×0.940 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.094 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.55% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 88, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .308 → .251; ISO .125 → .095; BABIP .332 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 174 PAwOBA .288 → .250 (−38)K% 25.9% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.86% | ÷1.011 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.05% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×1.045 | ×1.033 | 24.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.128 | ×0.830 | ×1.045 | ×1.033 | 4.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×1.033 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.190 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.09% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .288 → .250; ISO .103 → .078; BABIP .315 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABirmingham Barons · 160 PAwOBA .352 → .288 (−64)K% 28.1% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.119 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 3.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.075 | ×0.940 | ×1.047 | ×0.998 | 26.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.928 | ×0.870 | ×1.047 | ×0.998 | 8.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.047 | ×0.998 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.087 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.81% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 115, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 100, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .352 → .288; ISO .156 → .122; BABIP .408 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABirmingham Barons · 449 PAwOBA .297 → .248 (−49)K% 23.6% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.61% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.02% | ÷0.929 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.83% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 22.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.009 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.87% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 100, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .297 → .248; ISO .084 → .069; BABIP .324 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 462 PAwOBA .305 → .264 (−41)K% 16.0% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.02% | ÷0.928 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.049 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 2.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.74% | ÷0.984 | ×0.940 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 24.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.87% | ÷0.939 | ×0.830 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.049 | ×1.012 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 86, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .305 → .264; ISO .118 → .096; BABIP .316 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AHickory Crawdads · 320 PAwOBA .284 → .226 (−58)K% 23.8% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.75% | ÷1.010 | ×1.340 | — | — | 31.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.75% | ÷1.002 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 2.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.45% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.015 | 22.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.42% | ÷1.045 | ×0.820 | ×0.994 | ×1.015 | 3.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.141 | ×0.940 | ×0.994 | ×1.015 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.54% | ÷1.019 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 109, 3B 128, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .284 → .226; ISO .126 → .093; BABIP .298 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 215 PAwOBA .257 → .197 (−60)K% 25.1% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.12% | ÷0.966 | ×1.420 | — | — | 36.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.51% | ÷1.046 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.86% | ÷1.080 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.800 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.275 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .257 → .197; ISO .081 → .054; BABIP .289 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AHickory Crawdads · 467 PAwOBA .285 → .244 (−41)K% 22.7% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.70% | ÷0.990 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.35% | ÷0.972 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 3.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.36% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.86% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 24.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.907 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.100 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 0.96% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 108, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 98, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .285 → .244; ISO .084 → .073; BABIP .323 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).