Luis Arestigueta

Luis Arestigueta P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.05

FIP6.05

K%12.8%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%-4.0%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	11	8	34	144	25	17	1	73%	3.1	11.8%	14.8%	-3.0%	1.2%	3.48	4.63	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	11	8	34	144	25	17	1	73%	3.1	11.8%	14.8%	-3.0%	1.2%	3.48	4.63	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	11	8	34	144	25	17	1	73%	3.1	17.4%	11.8%	5.6%	0.7%	3.48	3.52	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	60	275	59	30	4	69%	3.8	15.0%	13.4%	1.5%	1.7%	4.62	4.49	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	60	275	59	30	4	69%	3.8	15.0%	13.4%	1.5%	1.7%	4.62	4.49	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	11	60	275	59	30	4	69%	3.8	21.5%	10.9%	10.5%	1.5%	4.62	3.50	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	12	10	43	196	36	24	2	83%	3.6	13.6%	14.4%	-0.9%	1.0%	4.85	4.35	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	12	10	43	196	36	24	2	83%	3.6	13.6%	14.4%	-0.9%	1.0%	4.85	4.35	—
2025	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	12	10	43	196	36	24	2	83%	3.6	18.4%	12.2%	6.1%	1.0%	4.85	3.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	26	6	74	339	69	46	6	23%	2.8	14.9%	16.2%	-1.3%	2.3%	6.20	5.15	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	26	6	74	339	69	46	6	23%	2.8	14.9%	16.2%	-1.3%	2.3%	6.20	5.15	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	ATL	5	0	12	55	9	8	0	0%	2.3	16.4%	14.5%	1.8%	0.0%	4.63	3.56	—
2026	20	A RAW	ATL	21	6	62	284	60	38	6	29%	3.0	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	2.1%	6.50	4.17	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ATL	72	0	76	321	48	49	9	0%	1.1	15.0%	15.2%	-0.2%	2.7%	5.73	5.63	-0.9
2028	22	MLB MLE	ATL	76	0	80	337	57	47	9	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.9%	3.1%	2.7%	5.42	5.28	-0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	ATL	79	0	83	350	63	46	9	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.1%	5.0%	2.7%	5.19	5.06	-0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	ATL	81	0	85	359	67	45	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.6%	6.2%	2.6%	5.03	4.94	-0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	ATL	82	0	86	364	70	45	10	0%	1.0	19.1%	12.4%	6.7%	2.6%	4.94	4.87	-0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	ATL	82	0	86	364	70	45	10	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.4%	7.0%	2.6%	4.89	4.85	-0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	ATL	81	0	85	358	69	45	10	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.4%	6.9%	2.7%	4.89	4.89	-0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	ATL	78	0	82	347	67	44	10	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	2.8%	4.94	4.98	-0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	ATL	75	0	79	332	70	40	10	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.88	4.84	-0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	ATL	70	0	74	312	64	38	10	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	3.1%	4.96	5.01	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	ATL	35	0	37	156	23	24	4	0%	1.1	15.0%	15.2%	-0.2%	2.7%	5.73	5.63	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	ATL	55	0	58	245	41	34	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.9%	3.1%	2.7%	5.42	5.28	-0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	ATL	67	0	70	296	54	39	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.1%	5.0%	2.7%	5.19	5.06	-0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	ATL	72	0	76	321	60	40	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.6%	6.2%	2.6%	5.03	4.94	-0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	ATL	75	0	79	334	64	41	9	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.4%	6.7%	2.6%	4.94	4.87	-0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	ATL	76	0	80	338	65	42	9	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.4%	7.0%	2.6%	4.89	4.85	-0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	ATL	77	0	81	342	66	43	9	0%	1.1	19.3%	12.4%	6.9%	2.7%	4.89	4.89	-0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	ATL	74	0	78	329	63	41	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	2.8%	4.94	4.98	-0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	ATL	71	0	75	317	66	38	9	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.0%	8.9%	2.9%	4.88	4.84	-0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	ATL	67	0	70	296	61	36	9	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	3.1%	4.96	5.01	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		671	0	704	2973	564	378	82	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.7%	6.3%	2.7%	5.04	4.61	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	107	23	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.7%	6.3%	2.7%	5.04	4.61	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		65	35	211	954	135	141	16	54%	3.2	14.2%	14.8%	-0.6%	1.7%	5.04	4.72	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	33	200	906	128	134	16	54%	3.2	14.2%	14.8%	-0.6%	1.7%	5.04	4.72	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Arestigueta (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.05	12.8%	16.8%	2.8%	—	5.32	16.7%	2.7%	239	-0.73	—	—	—
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	89
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	86
Vitico Valdez R 2023 · 5.68 FIP	19	SW	5.68	11.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.260	4.04	14.7%	-2.5%	43	-1.64	4.04	132	86
Mason Denaburg R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	19	SP-	4.98	12.8%	17.3%	1.4%	.328	4.95	16.3%	-0.1%	39	-0.03	4.48	151	85
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	85
Samuel Vásquez R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	19	SW	5.15	13.3%	17.2%	1.8%	.220	6.13	12.7%	-8.3%	49	+0.98	4.01	273	84
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	83
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	83
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	83
Daury Cabrera R 2021 · 5.97 FIP	20	SW	5.97	9.7%	14.3%	3.4%	.290	4.15	15.1%	5.0%	44	-1.82	2.86	191	83
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	83
Karsen Lindell R 2016 · 7.17 FIP	20	SP-	7.17	4.3%	20.7%	3.3%	.326	6.72	9.8%	-9.2%	54	-0.45	4.94	112	82
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	82
Jorge Cespedes R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	20	SW	4.88	11.2%	12.2%	2.1%	.284	4.14	12.9%	5.6%	107	-0.74	3.47	153	82
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	82
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	82
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	81
Jhon Vergara R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	11.1%	13.1%	3.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	106	81
Marbin Montijo R 2016 · 6.37 FIP	20	SW	6.37	7.4%	15.2%	3.6%	.241	5.92	15.6%	-5.3%	51	-0.45	4.37	110	81
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	77	18.5%	13.0%	1.06	5.11
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04