Luis Arestigueta
P
Augusta GreenJackets
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 175 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152143vR 134
ERA5.95
FIP5.95
K%12.8%
BB%16.1%
K-BB%-3.4%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 11 | 8 | 34 | 144 | 25 | 17 | 1 | 73% | 3.1 | 11.8% | 14.8% | -3.0% | 1.5% | 3.48 | 4.82 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 11 | 8 | 34 | 144 | 25 | 17 | 1 | 73% | 3.1 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 5.6% | 0.7% | 3.48 | 3.52 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 11 | 60 | 275 | 59 | 30 | 4 | 69% | 3.8 | 15.0% | 13.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 4.62 | 4.41 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 11 | 60 | 275 | 59 | 30 | 4 | 69% | 3.8 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 1.5% | 4.62 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 12 | 10 | 43 | 196 | 36 | 24 | 2 | 83% | 3.6 | 13.6% | 14.4% | -0.9% | 0.8% | 4.85 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 12 | 10 | 43 | 196 | 36 | 24 | 2 | 83% | 3.6 | 18.4% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 4.85 | 3.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 18 | 0 | 43 | 204 | 43 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 2.4 | 15.3% | 18.8% | -3.5% | 1.3% | 7.33 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ATL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 15 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.8% | 16.1% | -3.4% | 2.7% | 5.95 | 5.95 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.8% | 16.1% | -3.4% | 2.7% | 5.95 | 5.95 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 71 | 322 | 58 | 51 | 5 | — | — | 18.0% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 6.78 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 19 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 14.7% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 14.7% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 14 | 61 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 14.7% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 5.18 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 125 | 125 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 14.7% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 5.18 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 57 | 29 | 180 | 819 | 116 | 125 | 11 | 51% | 3.2 | 14.2% | 15.2% | -1.1% | 1.3% | 5.11 | 4.56 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 32 | 200 | 912 | 129 | 139 | 12 | 51% | 3.2 | 14.2% | 15.2% | -1.1% | 1.3% | 5.11 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Arestigueta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.95 | 12.8% | 16.1% | 2.7% | — | 5.56 | 15.0% | 0.3% | 29 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Reynardo Cruz R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.65 | 16.1% | 18.2% | 2.9% | .252 | 4.79 | 16.3% | -1.2% | 66 | -0.86 | 3.94 | 216 | 86 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 11.7% | 21.2% | 3.4% | .298 | 3.50 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 52 | -3.15 | 3.50 | 128 | 85 |
| Erick Reynoso R 2026 · 6.52 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.52 | 10.7% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .305 | 6.42 | 14.7% | -7.7% | 135 | -0.10 | 5.76 | 168 | 84 |
| Edward Vasquez R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.77 | 9.1% | 15.0% | 1.0% | .286 | 3.86 | 12.4% | 1.9% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.64 | 111 | 84 |
| Juan Perez R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.28 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .321 | 4.63 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 56 | -0.65 | 4.63 | 113 | 84 |
| Samuel Vásquez R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.15 | 13.3% | 17.2% | 1.8% | .220 | 5.96 | 12.7% | -8.3% | 49 | +0.81 | 4.04 | 273 | 83 |
| Lisander Brito R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.60 | 14.1% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .309 | 3.23 | 18.9% | 5.3% | 21 | -2.37 | 3.23 | 101 | 83 |
| Jose Alberto Rivera R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.65 | 16.1% | 19.2% | 2.7% | .185 | 3.69 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 115 | -1.96 | 3.41 | 163 | 83 |
| Aneuris Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.23 | 16.0% | 18.8% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.65 | 14.6% | -15.5% | 14 | +1.42 | 3.07 | 118 | 83 |
| Daury Cabrera R 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.97 | 9.7% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .290 | 4.12 | 15.1% | 5.0% | 44 | -1.85 | 2.86 | 191 | 83 |
| Jorge Cespedes R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.88 | 11.2% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.14 | 12.9% | 5.6% | 107 | -0.74 | 3.47 | 153 | 83 |
| Mason Denaburg R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.98 | 12.8% | 17.3% | 1.4% | .328 | 4.88 | 16.3% | -0.1% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.45 | 151 | 82 |
| Eury Ramos R 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.40 | 13.0% | 14.8% | 2.8% | .343 | 7.57 | 14.1% | 0.6% | 29 | +2.17 | 3.25 | 176 | 82 |
| Leudy Martinez R 2025 · 5.99 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.99 | 15.2% | 22.0% | 2.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 116 | 82 |
| Xavier Moore R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.93 | 12.5% | 15.8% | 1.6% | .288 | 4.29 | 27.6% | 13.0% | 71 | -0.64 | 2.30 | 135 | 82 |
| Esteban Luna R 2025 · 5.87 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.87 | 10.1% | 18.6% | 2.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 111 | 82 |
| Angel Peralta R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.90 | 15.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 105 | 82 |
| Jhon Vergara R 2025 · 5.75 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.75 | 11.1% | 13.1% | 3.5% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 106 | 82 |
| Ronny Lopez R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.26 | 15.1% | 20.6% | 1.5% | .232 | 5.11 | 13.7% | -5.7% | 85 | -0.15 | 4.23 | 121 | 82 |
| Gillian Wernet R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 11.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 107 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 1.05 | 5.80 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |