Luis Carias

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECTFG #421

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	12	12	35	3.89	3.16	18.7%	12.9%	—	K 12.7% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.07
2025	20	MIX2 levels	14	8	45	6.04	4.15	21.5%	9.3%	—	K 14.9% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.35
2026	21	ALAD	27	6	85	5.51	5.14	25.7%	21.6%	—	K 19.0% · BB 25.5% · FIP 6.27
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAD	50	0	52	5.98	5.98	19.6%	20.0%	-0.8
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAD	37	0	39	5.59	5.43	20.9%	16.7%	-0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAD	54	0	57	5.25	5.08	21.6%	14.6%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command50FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsRyan Cardona (age 22) · Radhames Liz (age 23) · Hansel Rosario (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 130

ERA5.98

FIP5.98

K%19.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CMD3050

K†4560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	23	103	15	13	0	0%	1.4	9.9%	15.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	4.70	4.26	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	23	103	15	13	0	0%	1.4	14.6%	12.6%	1.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.49	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	12	12	35	155	29	20	0	100%	2.9	12.7%	16.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.89	4.07	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	12	12	35	155	29	20	0	100%	2.9	12.7%	16.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.89	4.07	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	12	12	35	155	29	20	0	100%	2.9	18.7%	12.9%	5.8%	0.0%	3.89	3.16	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	45	205	44	19	6	57%	3.2	14.9%	12.6%	2.3%	3.5%	6.04	5.35	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	45	205	44	19	6	57%	3.2	14.9%	12.6%	2.3%	3.5%	6.04	5.35	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	45	205	44	19	6	57%	3.2	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.9%	6.04	4.15	—
2026	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	27	6	85	416	107	90	9	22%	3.1	19.0%	25.5%	-6.5%	2.8%	5.51	6.27	—
2026	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	27	6	85	416	107	90	9	22%	3.1	19.0%	25.5%	-6.5%	2.8%	5.51	6.27	—
2026	21	A RAW	Ontario Tower Buzzers	27	6	85	416	107	90	9	22%	3.1	25.7%	21.6%	4.1%	2.2%	5.51	5.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	50	0	52	220	43	44	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	20.0%	-0.4%	3.0%	5.98	5.98	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	76	0	79	335	70	56	10	0%	1.0	20.9%	16.7%	4.2%	2.9%	5.59	5.43	-0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	78	0	81	344	74	50	10	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.6%	7.1%	2.9%	5.25	5.08	-0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	78	0	82	348	77	45	10	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.1%	9.0%	2.9%	5.00	4.86	-0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	78	0	82	348	77	45	10	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.9%	9.3%	2.9%	4.88	4.82	-0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	77	0	81	343	76	45	10	0%	1.1	22.2%	13.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.86	-0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	75	0	79	333	80	41	10	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.67	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	72	0	75	318	76	40	10	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.78	4.80	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	67	0	71	299	70	38	10	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	3.4%	4.90	4.98	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	37	0	39	165	34	28	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.7%	4.2%	2.9%	5.59	5.43	-0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	54	0	57	241	52	35	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.6%	7.1%	2.9%	5.25	5.08	-0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	64	0	67	283	62	37	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.1%	9.0%	2.9%	5.00	4.86	-0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	69	0	72	304	68	39	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.9%	9.3%	2.9%	4.88	4.82	-0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	70	0	73	308	69	40	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	13.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.86	-0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	70	0	73	308	74	38	9	0%	1.0	24.1%	12.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.67	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	67	0	70	296	71	37	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.78	4.80	-0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	63	0	66	279	66	36	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	3.4%	4.90	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		492	0	517	2182	495	290	66	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.3%	9.4%	3.0%	4.96	4.52	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	112	26	0%	1.0	22.7%	13.3%	9.4%	3.0%	4.96	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		70	26	187	879	140	173	19	37%	2.7	15.9%	19.7%	-3.8%	2.1%	5.24	5.43	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	28	200	938	149	185	20	37%	2.7	15.9%	19.7%	-3.8%	2.1%	5.24	5.43	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Carias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.98	19.6%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.12	21.5%	6.8%	243	-0.86	—	—	—
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	89
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	86
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	83
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	82
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	81
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	81
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	80
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	80
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	80
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	80
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	79
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	79
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	79
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	78
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	78
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	78
Alberto Tirado R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	22	SW	5.69	14.7%	18.5%	2.7%	.294	3.82	16.5%	-0.2%	33	-1.87	3.78	247	78
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	76	22.3%	14.0%	1.16	5.08
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64