Yelserth Ayala — OGILVIE

Yelserth Ayala2B DSL CLE Mendoza

Age 20 S/R 5'8" / 140 lbs ROK HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .273 / .282

PA4

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	113	32	6	0	0	11	22	2	16	6	283	357	336	693	53	352	17	9	320	103	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2024	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	53	13	1	1	0	10	12	2	8	1	245	385	302	687	57	317	18	15	323	105	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	117	26	5	0	0	7	32	2	16	6	222	278	265	543	43	297	25	6	237	47	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	57	11	1	1	0	6	17	2	8	1	193	292	246	538	53	254	26	9	229	41	-5	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	117	26	5	0	0	7	32	2	16	6	222	278	265	543	43	306	25	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	113	32	6	0	0	11	22	2	16	6	283	357	336	693	53	352	17	9	320	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	57	11	1	1	0	6	17	2	8	1	193	292	246	538	53	275	26	9	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	53	13	1	1	0	10	12	2	8	1	245	385	302	687	57	317	18	15	323	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	116	26	5	0	0	7	32	2	16	6	224	278	267	545	43	297	25	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	58	11	1	1	0	6	17	2	8	1	190	292	241	534	52	254	26	9	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	116	26	5	0	0	7	32	2	16	6	224	278	267	545	43	297	25	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	58	11	1	1	0	6	17	2	8	1	190	292	241	534	52	254	26	9	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		288	25	0	256	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PIT	34%	116	106	23	4	1	1	8	30	1	3	0	217	278	302	580	85	290	26	7	268	67	-5	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	48%	261	237	54	9	2	4	19	67	3	7	1	228	293	333	627	105	291	26	7	276	73	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	365	331	74	12	2	6	27	93	4	10	1	224	290	326	616	103	292	25	7	281	77	-10	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	436	396	90	15	3	8	32	110	5	12	2	227	293	341	634	114	293	25	7	285	79	-11	+2	+0	+2	+9	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	478	434	99	16	3	9	35	121	6	13	2	228	295	341	636	113	293	25	7	287	80	-11	+2	+0	+2	+10	0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	503	455	104	17	3	10	37	127	6	14	2	229	295	345	640	116	293	25	7	288	81	-11	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	514	464	107	18	3	10	39	130	6	14	2	231	299	347	646	116	293	25	8	288	81	-11	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	517	467	107	18	3	10	39	132	6	13	2	229	297	345	642	116	292	26	8	287	81	-12	+2	-1	+2	+11	0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	512	462	105	17	3	10	39	132	6	12	2	227	296	342	638	115	292	26	8	285	79	-13	+2	-1	+2	+11	0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	504	454	102	17	3	9	39	131	6	11	1	225	295	335	629	110	290	26	8	283	77	-14	+2	-2	+2	+11	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	PIT	34%	40	37	7	1	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	189	250	216	466	27	288	25	8	256	67	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	48%	126	115	25	4	1	2	9	32	1	3	0	217	280	322	602	104	289	25	7	264	73	-4	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	198	180	40	7	1	3	14	50	2	5	1	222	286	322	608	100	290	25	7	269	77	-6	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	242	219	50	8	2	4	18	61	3	7	1	228	296	338	634	110	291	25	7	273	79	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	268	243	55	9	2	5	20	68	3	7	1	226	293	342	635	115	291	25	7	275	80	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	283	257	59	10	2	5	21	72	3	8	1	230	295	342	638	113	291	25	7	276	81	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	284	258	59	10	2	5	21	72	3	8	1	229	294	341	635	112	291	25	7	276	81	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	283	256	58	10	2	5	22	72	3	7	1	227	295	340	635	113	290	25	8	275	81	-7	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	274	248	56	9	2	5	21	70	3	7	1	226	294	339	633	113	289	26	8	273	79	-7	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	288	261	58	9	2	5	22	75	3	6	1	222	290	330	620	107	288	26	8	270	77	-8	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2286	2074	467	77	16	39	171	582	24	59	8	225	292	334	626	109	293	25	7	273	77	-57	+9	-2	+8	+50	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	133	22	5	11	49	165	7	17	2	225	293	336	629	110	293	25	8	273	77	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4402	3984	903	149	27	77	327	1123	53	133	22	227	294	336	630	109	294	26	7	283	77	-106	+16	-4	+15	+91	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	133	22	4	11	48	166	8	20	3	226	293	333	626	107	295	26	7	283	77	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.5	2,334	42	61	227	291	338	+8	+6	2.3	2.2
/162	664	12	17	+2.4	+1.7	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yelserth Ayala (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	210/273/282	72	288	0	1	27%	7%	59	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→44	39→45	53→50	43	195/254/284	89	269	5	13	28%	7%	53	-2.1	216/286/322	106	302	9	13	29%	9%	74	-0.6	216/290/325	109	297	11	14	29%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	53	-2.1	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	71	-0.8	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2013 · A	20	41	36→40	52→65	48	193/259/264	71	240	3	18	20%	7%	50	-2.3	214/291/283	69	273	2	26	20%	9%	66	-1.1	212/299/273	61	273	1	34	20%	10%	63	-0.4
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→47	41→50	50	44	203/259/304	102	267	7	10	26%	7%	59	-1.7	221/283/344	123	281	11	10	24%	7%	77	-0.3	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Geraldo Quintero 2022 · A	20	39→46	36→40	52→60	46	187/255/254	67	246	3	17	24%	7%	46	-2.6	216/281/304	88	287	5	23	25%	7%	67	-1.1	218/285/302	85	288	5	28	24%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	197/265/289	92	278	8	16	30%	8%	58	-1.7	238/299/342	104	319	7	24	25%	8%	82	+0.0	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Jorge Barrosa 2021 · A	20	45→49	38→45	55	44	215/279/298	83	279	5	18	24%	6%	65	-1.2	225/287/334	109	284	9	19	23%	7%	76	-0.4	224/293/340	117	276	10	20	22%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Pedro Toribio 2010 · A	20	42	36→40	55→60	47	199/265/272	73	259	3	17	23%	8%	53	-2.1	229/276/321	92	283	4	23	20%	6%	68	-1.0	258/292/370	112	309	4	31	17%	4%	83	+0.0
✕Frainyer Chavez 2019 · A	20	46→48	38→40	54→50	42	216/270/292	76	297	5	21	28%	6%	59	-1.6	204/266/260	56	283	2	13	26%	7%	51	-2.2	225/293/309	84	295	8	18	25%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Brayan Rocchio 2021 · A	20	48→53	38→45	48→50	43	226/277/308	82	281	5	13	21%	5%	66	-1.1	226/284/349	123	286	11	14	24%	6%	79	-0.2	222/294/342	121	256	12	16	18%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	41	195/245/269	75	266	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	236/283/325	89	313	8	10	26%	6%	72	-0.7	247/301/337	90	312	4	24	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→44	40→45	54→50	40	185/249/285	100	275	6	9	34%	7%	51	-2.2	203/274/314	111	281	9	13	29%	8%	68	-1.0	202/276/313	110	274	9	14	28%	9%	65	-1.0
✕Jeison Guzmán 2019 · A	20	41→42	37→45	53→50	41	197/247/265	68	273	4	14	28%	6%	45	-2.7	208/247/300	92	282	7	12	28%	4%	53	-2.1	201/249/309	108	282	10	10	31%	5%	53	-1.2
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→40	40→45	57→60	43	221/278/318	97	302	7	17	28%	7%	69	-0.9	212/274/310	98	290	7	22	27%	7%	65	-1.2	203/265/310	108	257	10	33	24%	7%	60	-0.9
✕Lucius Fox 2017 · A	20	40→49	38→40	55→60	43	193/256/270	77	275	5	20	30%	7%	50	-2.3	211/278/280	69	305	4	22	30%	7%	60	-1.6	189/252/269	80	275	7	24	32%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Wilmer Difo 2011 · A	19	39→49	35→45	53→55	43	185/240/246	61	245	2	14	24%	6%	38	-3.2	206/272/279	73	259	3	20	20%	8%	58	-1.7	251/291/356	104	304	7	26	19%	4%	79	-0.2
✕Roberto Caro 2014 · A	20	46→41	35→40	56→60	48	210/285/283	73	287	1	16	25%	8%	63	-1.3	206/280/293	87	291	3	18	27%	8%	64	-1.3	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Karexon Sanchez 2008 · A	20	42→47	40→45	50	44	204/268/288	84	276	8	14	28%	7%	59	-1.7	208/274/318	110	300	10	11	32%	7%	68	-1.0	215/284/316	101	292	11	15	28%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Luis Liberato 2016 · A	20	37→47	37→50	53→50	41	180/242/256	76	270	4	13	33%	7%	42	-2.9	209/260/327	118	304	9	6	32%	7%	64	-1.3	213/280/360	147	293	15	9	31%	8%	79	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps