Yelserth Ayala — OGILVIE

Yelserth Ayala2B DSL CLE Mendoza

Age 20 S/R 5'8" / 140 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .272 / .283

PA49

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.4M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	117	26	5	0	0	7	32	2	16	6	222	278	265	543	43	306	25	6	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	113	32	6	0	0	11	22	2	16	6	283	357	336	693	53	352	17	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	57	11	1	1	0	6	18	2	8	1	193	292	246	538	53	282	27	9	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	53	13	1	1	0	10	12	2	8	1	245	385	302	687	57	317	18	15	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	PIT	—	49	45	9	2	0	0	3	13	1	1	0	200	265	244	510	44	288	27	6	256	54	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	PIT	34%	116	106	23	4	1	1	8	31	1	3	0	217	278	302	580	85	290	27	7	268	63	-5	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	PIT	48%	261	237	53	9	2	4	19	68	3	7	1	224	290	329	619	105	291	26	7	276	69	-9	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2029	23	MLB	PIT	54%	365	331	75	13	2	6	27	94	4	10	1	227	293	332	625	106	292	26	7	281	73	-11	+2	+0	+1	+10	0.2
2030	24	MLB	PIT	55%	436	396	90	15	3	8	32	111	5	12	2	227	293	341	634	114	293	25	7	285	76	-12	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.4
2031	25	MLB	PIT	56%	478	434	99	17	3	9	35	122	6	13	2	228	295	343	638	115	294	26	7	287	78	-12	+2	+0	+2	+14	0.5
2032	26	MLB	PIT	56%	503	455	105	18	3	10	37	128	6	14	2	231	297	349	647	119	294	25	7	288	79	-12	+2	+0	+2	+14	0.6
2033	27	MLB	PIT	55%	514	464	106	18	3	10	39	131	6	14	2	228	297	345	641	116	293	25	8	288	79	-12	+2	+0	+2	+15	0.6
2034	28	MLB	PIT	55%	517	467	107	18	3	10	39	133	6	13	2	229	297	345	642	116	293	26	8	287	78	-13	+2	-1	+2	+15	0.5
2035	29	MLB	PIT	53%	512	462	105	17	3	10	39	132	6	12	2	227	296	342	638	115	292	26	8	285	77	-14	+2	-1	+2	+15	0.3
2027	21	MLB	PIT	34%	40	37	7	1	0	0	3	11	0	1	0	189	250	216	466	27	289	28	8	258	56	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	PIT	48%	126	115	25	4	1	2	9	33	1	3	0	217	280	322	602	104	290	26	7	266	62	-5	+1	+0	+0	+4	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	PIT	54%	198	180	40	7	1	3	14	51	2	5	1	222	286	322	608	100	291	26	7	272	66	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2030	24	MLB	PIT	55%	242	219	48	8	1	4	18	62	3	7	1	219	287	320	607	100	292	26	7	275	69	-8	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2031	25	MLB	PIT	56%	268	243	55	9	2	5	20	68	3	7	1	226	293	342	635	115	292	25	7	277	70	-9	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.1
2032	26	MLB	PIT	56%	283	257	58	10	2	5	21	72	3	8	1	226	292	339	630	113	292	25	7	278	71	-9	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.1
2033	27	MLB	PIT	55%	284	258	58	10	2	5	21	72	3	8	1	225	291	337	628	112	292	25	7	278	71	-9	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.1
2034	28	MLB	PIT	55%	283	256	58	10	2	5	22	73	3	7	1	227	295	340	635	113	291	26	8	277	71	-9	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.0
2035	29	MLB	PIT	53%	274	248	56	9	2	5	21	71	3	7	1	226	294	339	633	113	290	26	8	276	69	-10	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1998	1813	405	68	13	34	149	513	21	53	7	223	290	331	621	108	291	26	7	276	69	-70	+8	-1	+7	+57	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	131	22	4	11	48	167	7	17	2	222	288	329	617	107	289	26	7	276	69	-23	+3	-0	+2	+18	0.0
Career	—			—	3943	3571	809	137	24	68	291	1013	48	123	21	227	294	335	629	109	295	26	7	282	74	-115	+16	-2	+14	+112	2.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	134	23	4	11	48	167	8	20	3	228	295	336	631	109	297	26	7	282	74	-19	+3	-0	+2	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Guardians Blue	—	126	113	32	6	0	0	11	22	2	16	6	283	357	336	693	53	352	17	9	320	103	+0	+1	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	66	53	13	1	1	0	10	12	2	8	1	245	385	302	687	57	317	18	15	323	105	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,047	37	54	227	291	339	+7	+6	1.6	1.7
	/162	664	12	18	227	291	339	+2.4	+1.9	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yelserth Ayala (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	210/272/283	73	288	0	1	27%	7%	54	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	41→42	39→45	53→50	42	196/255/285	89	270	5	13	28%	7%	46	-2.0	211/283/320	109	300	10	13	30%	9%	69	-0.4	209/285/321	112	292	12	14	30%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	46	-2.0	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	67	-0.5	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	41→47	41→50	49→50	44	202/257/305	102	265	8	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	223/285/351	128	285	12	10	25%	7%	77	+0.1	226/291/358	132	282	13	10	24%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2013 · A	20	41	36→40	52→65	48	193/259/264	71	240	3	18	20%	7%	43	-2.2	214/291/283	69	273	2	26	20%	9%	62	-0.9	212/299/273	61	273	1	34	20%	10%	59	-0.4
✕Geraldo Quintero 2022 · A	20	39→49	36→40	52→60	46	186/254/253	67	244	3	17	24%	7%	38	-2.6	222/285/312	90	295	5	23	25%	7%	66	-0.6	225/290/312	88	297	5	28	24%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Frainyer Chavez 2019 · A	20	46→47	38→40	54→50	42	216/270/292	76	297	5	21	28%	6%	54	-1.4	200/264/255	55	278	2	13	27%	8%	43	-2.2	228/293/326	98	302	11	17	26%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	196/264/288	92	278	8	16	31%	8%	52	-1.6	236/297/340	104	317	6	24	26%	7%	79	+0.3	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Pedro Toribio 2010 · A	20	42	36→40	55→60	47	199/265/272	73	259	3	17	23%	8%	47	-1.9	229/276/321	92	283	4	23	20%	6%	64	-0.8	258/292/370	112	309	4	31	17%	4%	81	+0.1
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	40	193/243/266	73	268	5	9	29%	6%	37	-2.7	229/276/310	81	309	7	10	26%	6%	62	-0.9	247/301/337	90	315	4	24	22%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Jeison Guzmán 2019 · A	20	40→42	36→45	52→50	40	194/244/260	66	269	4	14	28%	6%	35	-2.8	207/246/297	90	277	7	12	27%	4%	45	-2.1	199/247/312	113	276	11	10	31%	5%	47	-1.2
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→41	40→45	57→60	42	218/276/313	95	301	7	17	29%	7%	63	-0.9	213/275/311	98	289	7	22	27%	7%	63	-0.9	205/269/314	109	262	10	34	25%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Lucius Fox 2017 · A	20	40→48	39→40	56→60	43	193/255/276	83	270	6	20	30%	7%	45	-2.1	209/276/279	70	304	4	22	30%	7%	54	-1.4	189/253/276	87	274	8	24	32%	7%	41	-0.9
✕Karexon Sanchez 2008 · A	20	42→48	40→45	50	44	204/268/288	84	276	8	14	28%	7%	53	-1.5	209/274/318	109	301	10	11	32%	7%	64	-0.8	222/301/333	110	309	10	11	29%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Wilmer Difo 2011 · A	19	39→49	35→45	53→55	43	185/240/246	61	245	2	14	24%	6%	30	-3.1	206/272/279	73	259	3	20	20%	8%	53	-1.5	251/290/357	106	305	8	26	20%	4%	76	+0.1
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→43	40→45	54→55	39	184/247/283	100	276	6	9	34%	6%	43	-2.2	200/271/309	109	281	9	13	30%	8%	60	-1.0	198/272/305	108	273	9	14	29%	9%	57	-1.0
✕Roberto Caro 2014 · A	20	46→38	35→40	56→60	48	210/285/283	73	287	1	16	25%	8%	59	-1.1	206/280/293	87	292	3	18	28%	8%	59	-1.1	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	39	37→45	53→55	47	185/259/257	72	250	4	14	26%	8%	42	-2.3	225/287/323	98	318	6	19	29%	7%	70	-0.3	201/262/323	122	304	12	21	36%	6%	57	-0.6
✕Jorge Barrosa 2021 · A	20	45→48	38→45	55	44	215/279/298	83	279	5	18	24%	6%	61	-1.0	218/278/326	108	276	10	19	24%	6%	68	-0.5	215/281/329	114	266	11	20	23%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Raul Linares 2011 · A	20	42	36→45	54→55	45	196/265/265	69	260	2	17	24%	7%	46	-2.0	196/253/273	77	268	3	19	26%	6%	43	-2.2	205/253/302	97	264	4	17	23%	6%	47	-0.6