Leandro Solano prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Leandro Solano P DSL Padres Brown

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%20.5%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	8	0	8	53	5	15	0	0%	1.0	6.4%	35.4%	-29.0%	0.0%	20.25	7.04	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	8	0	8	53	5	15	0	0%	1.0	6.4%	35.4%	-29.0%	0.0%	20.25	7.04	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	8	0	8	53	5	15	0	0%	1.0	9.4%	28.3%	-18.9%	0.0%	20.25	7.47	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	14	0	19	88	9	10	1	0%	1.4	7.0%	14.2%	-7.2%	1.8%	5.59	5.27	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	14	0	19	88	9	10	1	0%	1.4	7.0%	14.2%	-7.2%	1.8%	5.59	5.27	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	14	0	19	88	9	10	1	0%	1.4	10.2%	11.4%	-1.1%	1.1%	5.59	4.39	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	13.7%	6.8%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	19	0	20	84	18	10	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.76	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	2.9%	4.87	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	2.9%	4.87	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		22	0	27	141	10	31	2	0%	1.2	6.8%	22.2%	-15.4%	1.1%	9.88	5.94	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	0	200	1032	70	229	11	0%	1.2	6.8%	22.2%	-15.4%	1.1%	9.88	5.94	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leandro Solano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	20.5%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.76	21.7%	9.7%	20	-0.36	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	90
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	89
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	88
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	88
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	87
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	87
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	87
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	87
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	86
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	86
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	86
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	86
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	85
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	85