Danny Ojeda prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Danny Ojeda P DSL Padres Gold

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%23.1%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	12	2	19	100	27	18	3	17%	1.6	18.4%	22.5%	-4.1%	4.5%	9.47	6.88	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	12	2	19	100	27	18	3	17%	1.6	18.4%	22.5%	-4.1%	4.5%	9.47	6.88	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	12	2	19	100	27	18	3	17%	1.6	27.0%	18.0%	9.0%	3.0%	9.47	5.15	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	4	0	4	21	5	6	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	28.6%	-4.8%	0.0%	6.23	4.71	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	4	0	4	21	5	6	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	28.6%	-4.8%	0.0%	6.23	4.71	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	4	0	4	21	5	6	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	28.6%	-4.8%	0.0%	6.23	4.95	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.78	4.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	19	0	20	84	20	9	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.49	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.11	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	102	20	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		16	2	23	121	23	28	5	12%	1.5	19.3%	23.6%	-4.2%	3.7%	8.87	6.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	17	200	1037	200	244	39	12%	1.5	19.3%	23.6%	-4.2%	3.7%	8.87	6.50	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Ojeda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	23.1%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.49	24.0%	12.8%	20	-0.29	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	88
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	85
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	85
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	84
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	84
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.43	249	84
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	83
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	83
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	83
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	83
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	83
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.36	398	83
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	83
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	83