Joan Sierra — OGILVIE

Joan Sierra3B DSL Padres Brown

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 175 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .280 / .291

PA5

HR0

K%30

BB%8

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	16	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	59	11	3	0	1	6	20	7	0	0	186	333	288	621	102	263	28	8	300	89	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	80	13	5	1	1	27	26	2	7	1	163	385	287	673	125	226	24	25	326	107	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	61	8	2	0	1	4	29	7	0	0	131	264	213	477	82	207	40	6	201	22	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	91	10	3	1	1	16	38	2	7	1	110	257	198	455	88	168	35	15	213	30	-9	+1	—	—	+2	-0.6
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	61	8	2	0	1	4	29	7	0	0	131	264	213	477	82	226	40	6	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	16	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	59	11	3	0	1	6	20	7	0	0	186	333	288	621	102	263	28	8	300	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	91	10	3	1	1	16	38	2	7	1	110	257	198	455	88	173	35	15	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	80	13	5	1	1	27	26	2	7	1	163	385	287	673	125	226	24	25	326	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	61	8	2	0	1	4	29	7	0	0	131	264	213	477	82	207	40	6	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	91	10	3	1	1	16	38	2	7	1	110	257	198	455	88	168	35	15	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	61	8	2	0	1	4	29	7	0	0	131	264	213	477	82	207	40	6	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	91	10	3	1	1	16	38	2	7	1	110	257	198	455	88	168	35	15	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	19	MLB MLE	SD	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		287	40	0	265	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	34%	120	107	22	4	1	2	10	35	2	2	0	206	286	318	603	112	290	29	8	276	73	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	48%	271	241	52	10	2	5	23	77	5	4	1	216	297	336	633	120	291	28	8	283	78	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	54%	385	342	75	15	3	7	33	108	7	6	1	219	301	342	643	123	292	28	9	289	82	-8	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	57%	462	411	90	18	3	9	40	128	8	7	2	219	301	343	644	124	293	28	9	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	57%	513	455	102	20	4	11	44	142	9	8	2	224	305	358	663	134	294	28	9	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	57%	544	482	108	21	4	12	47	150	10	8	2	224	306	359	665	135	294	28	9	296	87	-9	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	56%	562	499	110	21	4	12	48	155	10	8	2	220	302	351	652	130	294	28	9	297	87	-9	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	55%	568	503	111	21	4	12	50	157	10	8	2	221	304	350	654	129	293	28	9	297	87	-9	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	SD	55%	568	503	111	21	4	12	50	158	10	8	2	221	304	350	654	129	293	28	9	296	86	-9	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	SD	53%	561	496	109	21	4	12	50	157	10	7	2	220	304	351	655	131	292	28	9	294	85	-10	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	SD	53%	552	488	105	20	3	11	49	156	10	6	2	215	300	336	636	121	290	28	9	291	83	-11	+0	-2	+2	+12	0.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	SD	52%	539	476	101	19	3	11	48	154	10	5	1	212	298	334	632	122	287	29	9	287	80	-13	+1	-3	+2	+12	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	SD	34%	41	37	7	1	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	189	268	297	566	108	286	29	7	261	73	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	48%	131	117	25	5	1	2	11	37	2	2	0	214	292	325	617	111	288	28	8	269	78	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	54%	209	185	40	8	1	4	18	59	4	3	1	216	300	335	635	119	289	28	9	274	82	-5	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	57%	262	233	51	10	2	5	22	73	5	4	1	219	300	343	643	124	290	28	8	278	84	-5	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	57%	290	258	57	11	2	6	25	80	5	4	1	221	302	349	651	128	291	28	9	280	86	-5	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	57%	307	272	60	11	2	7	26	85	6	5	1	221	303	353	656	132	291	28	8	282	87	-5	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	56%	317	281	62	12	2	7	27	88	6	5	1	221	303	352	655	132	291	28	9	283	87	-5	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	55%	315	278	62	12	2	7	28	87	6	5	1	223	308	356	664	133	290	28	9	283	87	-5	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	SD	55%	312	275	60	11	2	7	28	87	6	4	1	218	304	349	653	131	290	28	9	282	86	-5	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	SD	53%	300	265	58	11	2	7	27	84	5	4	1	219	303	355	658	136	289	28	9	280	85	-5	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	SD	53%	291	258	55	10	2	6	26	82	5	3	1	213	298	337	635	124	287	28	9	277	83	-6	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	SD	52%	281	249	53	10	2	6	25	80	5	3	1	213	297	341	639	129	284	28	9	273	80	-7	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3056	2708	590	112	20	65	266	854	56	43	10	218	301	346	647	128	291	28	9	279	82	-57	+5	-4	+11	+66	2.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	126	24	4	14	57	182	12	9	2	219	302	347	650	128	292	28	9	279	82	-12	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5832	5160	1115	216	40	118	512	1646	110	84	20	216	300	342	642	126	291	28	9	290	82	-106	+8	-7	+20	+122	3.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	124	24	4	13	57	183	12	9	2	216	299	339	638	123	291	28	9	290	82	-12	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.7	3,118	64	43	220	299	346	+11	+4	4.3	3.9
/162	664	14	9	+2.4	+0.7	0.9	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joan Sierra (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	199/280/291	92	287	1	1	30%	8%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	211/276/297	86	310	7	9	32%	8%	63	-1.3	236/282/327	91	298	8	17	23%	5%	72	-0.7	253/310/346	93	295	7	12	16%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Eguy Rosario 2019 · A	19	41→51	40→55	47→55	39	198/251/292	94	281	7	13	31%	6%	53	-2.1	220/268/333	113	304	9	16	29%	6%	69	-0.9	224/286/367	142	294	14	21	28%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→41	42→50	53→55	44	186/268/288	102	275	10	11	34%	9%	60	-1.6	201/285/320	119	319	11	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	43→41	41→50	47→50	51	206/290/306	101	284	7	8	28%	10%	72	-0.7	190/261/308	118	286	11	9	35%	8%	61	-1.5	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	42→52	39→45	53→55	42	202/258/287	85	283	6	12	30%	7%	54	-2.0	216/266/306	90	282	7	10	24%	6%	61	-1.5	234/311/308	74	302	5	10	22%	9%	76	-0.2
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2017 · A	19	41→45	40→50	50→45	38	202/241/292	90	278	7	6	29%	5%	49	-2.4	190/233/287	97	311	9	5	40%	5%	45	-2.7	215/287/377	162	320	23	6	38%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	42	-2.9	192/236/269	77	243	5	3	22%	4%	41	-3.0	240/309/375	135	295	17	3	24%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
●Davis Schneider 2018 · A	19	40→43	41→55	48→50	50	195/275/298	102	255	8	6	26%	9%	64	-1.3	195/268/291	96	304	8	7	35%	8%	60	-1.6	209/318/396	187	271	23	9	30%	12%	102	+1.1
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→47	39→50	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	61	-1.5	217/292/295	78	287	5	17	24%	8%	70	-0.9	227/300/346	119	306	11	20	28%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Joshua Báez 2022 · A	19	39→46	41→55	54→60	38	185/258/281	96	309	8	10	40%	7%	54	-2.0	176/263/284	108	354	10	21	48%	8%	57	-1.8	204/273/381	176	282	23	33	35%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→50	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	53	-2.1	196/245/302	106	303	10	7	37%	5%	53	-2.1	225/276/346	121	319	13	2	32%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→43	41→50	51→50	44	205/270/309	104	282	7	12	28%	7%	64	-1.3	200/251/288	88	282	6	11	30%	6%	52	-2.2	208/265/349	141	264	16	14	28%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	40→50	40→45	50→65	41	195/252/281	86	270	8	16	30%	6%	51	-2.2	228/294/330	102	309	8	38	27%	7%	78	-0.3	236/312/340	103	313	6	38	24%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2011 · A	19	45	41→45	51→50	43	216/278/319	103	302	7	11	30%	7%	70	-0.9	198/267/295	97	299	7	13	33%	8%	60	-1.6	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	44→48	40→50	51→65	48	211/282/302	91	281	6	10	26%	9%	67	-1.1	211/270/308	97	287	7	34	27%	7%	64	-1.3	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
●Jordy Lara 2010 · A	19	40→50	40→55	48→40	51	190/286/284	94	270	6	9	30%	11%	66	-1.1	177/249/292	115	259	12	5	34%	8%	53	-2.1	240/287/384	144	293	14	0	23%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2018 · A	19	41	42→55	47→50	39	203/257/313	110	287	8	5	31%	6%	60	-1.6	193/233/321	128	274	13	5	34%	5%	53	-2.1	206/269/359	153	269	19	7	30%	7%	74	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps