Joan Sierra — OGILVIE

Joan Sierra3B DSL Padres Brown

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 175 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .279 / .291

PA62

HR1

K%30

BB%8

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1.0M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-3	$1M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.2M
Totals		$8M		$12M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	16	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	61	8	2	0	1	4	29	7	0	0	131	264	213	477	82	226	40	6	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	16	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	59	11	3	0	1	6	20	7	0	0	186	333	288	621	102	263	28	8	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	91	10	3	1	1	16	39	2	7	1	110	257	198	455	88	176	35	15	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	80	13	5	1	1	27	26	2	7	1	163	385	287	673	125	226	24	25	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	SD	—	62	56	11	2	0	1	5	19	1	1	0	196	274	286	560	89	287	31	8	264	60	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	SD	34%	120	107	22	4	1	2	10	35	2	2	0	206	286	318	603	112	290	29	8	275	69	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	SD	48%	271	241	52	10	2	5	23	78	5	4	1	216	297	336	633	120	291	29	8	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.1
2029	22	MLB	SD	54%	385	342	74	14	3	7	33	109	7	6	1	216	298	336	635	120	292	28	9	288	79	-9	+1	+0	+1	+11	0.4
2030	23	MLB	SD	57%	462	412	89	17	3	9	39	129	8	7	2	216	296	337	634	121	293	28	8	292	81	-10	+1	+0	+2	+13	0.6
2031	24	MLB	SD	57%	513	455	101	19	4	11	44	143	9	8	2	222	303	354	657	132	294	28	9	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+2	+15	0.8
2032	25	MLB	SD	57%	544	483	107	20	4	12	46	152	10	8	2	222	302	354	656	133	294	28	8	296	84	-10	+1	+0	+2	+15	0.9
2033	26	MLB	SD	56%	562	499	110	21	4	12	48	157	10	8	2	220	302	351	652	130	294	28	9	296	85	-10	+1	+0	+2	+16	0.9
2034	27	MLB	SD	55%	568	504	111	21	4	12	49	159	10	8	2	220	302	349	651	129	294	28	9	296	85	-10	+1	+0	+2	+16	1.0
2035	28	MLB	SD	55%	568	503	111	21	4	12	50	159	10	8	2	221	304	350	654	129	293	28	9	295	84	-10	+1	-1	+2	+16	0.8
2036	29	MLB	SD	53%	561	497	109	21	4	12	49	159	10	7	2	219	302	350	652	131	292	28	9	293	83	-11	+1	-1	+2	+16	0.6
2037	30	MLB	SD	53%	552	488	105	20	3	11	49	157	10	6	2	215	300	336	636	121	291	28	9	290	80	-12	+0	-2	+2	+16	0.4
2038	31	MLB	SD	52%	539	476	102	19	3	11	48	155	10	5	1	214	300	336	636	122	288	29	9	286	77	-14	+1	-3	+2	+15	0.1
2027	20	MLB	SD	34%	41	37	7	1	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	189	268	297	566	108	286	29	7	259	56	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	SD	48%	131	117	25	5	1	2	11	38	2	2	0	214	292	325	617	111	288	29	8	266	62	-6	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	SD	54%	209	185	40	8	1	4	18	59	4	3	1	216	300	335	635	119	289	28	9	271	66	-8	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2030	23	MLB	SD	57%	262	233	51	10	2	5	22	73	5	4	1	219	300	343	643	124	290	28	8	275	69	-9	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.1
2031	24	MLB	SD	57%	290	258	57	11	2	6	25	81	5	4	1	221	302	349	651	128	290	28	9	277	70	-10	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.0
2032	25	MLB	SD	57%	307	272	59	11	2	6	26	86	6	5	1	217	299	338	638	121	291	28	8	278	71	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.0
2033	26	MLB	SD	56%	317	281	62	12	2	7	27	88	6	5	1	221	303	352	655	132	290	28	9	279	72	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2034	27	MLB	SD	55%	315	279	61	11	2	7	27	88	6	5	1	219	301	348	649	129	290	28	9	279	72	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2035	28	MLB	SD	55%	312	276	60	11	2	7	27	88	6	4	1	217	301	348	649	130	289	28	9	278	71	-10	+0	-0	+1	+9	-0.0
2036	29	MLB	SD	53%	300	266	57	11	2	6	26	85	5	4	1	214	296	338	635	124	288	28	9	276	70	-10	+0	-1	+1	+8	-0.1
2037	30	MLB	SD	53%	291	258	55	10	2	6	26	83	5	3	1	213	298	337	635	124	287	29	9	274	68	-11	+0	-1	+1	+8	-0.2
2038	31	MLB	SD	52%	281	249	52	10	2	5	25	81	5	3	1	209	294	325	619	116	284	29	9	270	64	-11	+0	-1	+1	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3056	2711	586	111	20	62	263	862	56	43	10	216	299	340	639	124	291	28	9	275	69	-107	+5	-4	+11	+87	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	125	24	4	13	56	183	12	9	2	217	299	340	639	123	292	28	9	275	69	-23	+1	-1	+2	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	5889	5215	1122	214	40	119	513	1679	111	85	20	215	299	340	639	125	291	29	9	289	79	-137	+9	-7	+21	+167	5.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	124	24	4	13	57	185	12	9	2	215	299	339	638	123	291	28	9	289	79	-15	+1	-1	+2	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	16	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	72	59	11	3	0	1	6	20	7	0	0	186	333	288	621	102	263	28	8	300	88	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	110	80	13	5	1	1	27	26	2	7	1	163	385	287	673	125	226	24	25	326	108	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#2Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	11	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
	/162	664	18	10	226	302	380	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,118	64	43	219	298	346	+11	+4	3.7	3.4
	/162	664	14	9	219	298	346	+2.4	+0.7	0.8	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joan Sierra (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	199/279/291	92	287	1	1	30%	8%	60	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	42→41	39→55	47→50	50	201/285/293	92	282	6	8	29%	10%	63	-0.9	187/257/303	116	284	10	9	35%	7%	53	-1.5	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	211/276/297	86	310	7	9	32%	8%	59	-1.1	239/285/329	90	301	8	17	22%	5%	70	-0.3	252/302/359	107	305	10	17	20%	6%	82	+0.4
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→50	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	49	-1.8	219/263/330	111	288	12	6	27%	4%	62	-0.9	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	42→52	39→45	53→55	42	202/258/287	85	283	6	12	30%	7%	48	-1.9	215/267/306	91	282	7	10	25%	6%	56	-1.3	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Kevin Alcántara 2021 · A	19	41→49	37→50	48→50	37	198/245/275	77	283	4	8	30%	5%	40	-2.4	222/274/348	126	339	12	10	36%	6%	71	-0.3	229/292/381	152	335	20	12	36%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	40→55	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	59	-1.1	228/295/379	151	303	17	5	29%	7%	89	+1.0	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Eguy Rosario 2019 · A	19	40→50	41→50	47→55	38	197/248/296	99	280	8	13	32%	5%	46	-2.0	223/270/347	124	311	11	16	30%	5%	69	-0.4	219/282/363	144	293	15	21	29%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→41	40→55	51→50	44	201/267/302	101	282	7	12	30%	7%	56	-1.3	197/248/287	90	281	7	11	31%	5%	44	-2.1	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	40→50	40→45	50→65	41	196/253/282	87	272	8	16	30%	6%	45	-2.1	225/290/327	102	307	8	38	27%	7%	72	-0.2	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2017 · A	19	41→44	40→55	50→45	38	202/241/292	90	278	7	6	29%	5%	42	-2.3	190/233/290	100	311	10	5	40%	5%	39	-2.5	225/289/397	172	330	25	6	38%	8%	88	+0.7
✕Franklin Barreto 2015 · A	19	43→48	41→55	49→50	37	205/257/317	111	296	7	9	32%	5%	56	-1.3	231/268/343	112	307	10	14	27%	4%	67	-0.5	217/273/384	168	316	20	13	36%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→46	39→55	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	56	-1.3	215/291/294	79	285	6	17	24%	8%	66	-0.6	226/298/350	124	305	12	20	28%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Joshua Báez 2022 · A	19	40→47	41→55	54→60	38	186/258/282	96	310	8	10	40%	7%	49	-1.8	171/260/277	106	355	10	21	50%	8%	49	-1.8	203/276/380	177	287	24	34	36%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2018 · A	19	41→40	42→55	47→50	39	203/257/313	110	287	8	5	31%	6%	55	-1.4	192/232/317	125	275	12	5	34%	4%	45	-2.1	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Jorge Alcantara 2011 · A	19	45	41→45	51→50	43	216/278/319	103	302	7	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	198/267/295	97	299	7	13	33%	8%	55	-1.4	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
●Jordy Lara 2010 · A	19	40→50	40→50	48→40	51	190/286/284	94	270	6	9	30%	11%	62	-0.9	177/249/292	115	259	12	5	34%	8%	47	-1.9	235/283/381	147	297	15	1	25%	5%	81	+0.4
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	44	39→50	50→55	35	205/259/286	81	318	6	10	36%	5%	49	-1.8	217/276/316	99	313	9	18	32%	6%	64	-0.8	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1